Aug 23, 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Trivia Quiz with Cash Prizes

Forex Crunch Forex Trivia Quiz with Cash Prizes


Forex Trivia Quiz with Cash Prizes

Posted: 23 Aug 2010 04:47 AM PDT


I’m launching today a forex trivia quiz with cash prizes, in cooperation with Forex Rate It. Anyone can participate in the quiz and win prizes delivered directly to the winners – no need to open any account. Here are all the details.

The forex quiz, available here, consists of 4 simple questions. All you have to do is answer the questions and collect Facebook “Likes” from your friends. The answers to these questions can be easily found on both sites: Forex Crunch and Forex Rate It. You can explore the sites, use the search box or anything you wish to find the answers. The quiz is open from August 23rd to September 6th.

The winners are the top three participants that received the highest amount of “Likes”. The winner will be awarded receive $100, the runner up – $50, and the person in the third place will receive be awarded $25. The payment will be made directly to the participants’ PayPal accounts, with . There’s no need to open an account with any forex Forex broker.

We wish to further the education of forex traders in fun way, and we believe that everybody will enjoy it.

The quiz, with the interactive scoreboard and the terms are here.

So, I invite you to participate and wish you success!

Americans Drifting Away from Stocks – Will the Dollar Enjoy This?

Posted: 23 Aug 2010 02:42 AM PDT


In the past 30 months, Americans have moved away from stocks into bonds, according to Investment Company Institute that monitors mutual funds. The last time that this happened, between 1984 to 1987, it ended in a huge collapse of the stock market. Will history repeat itself? Will the dollar leap on such an event?

Nearly 210 billion dollars left US equity funds during the 30 month period that ended in June 2010. On the other hand, bond funds attracted almost $560 billion during this period. This brings a blast from the past:

As shown here, the same thing happened between from March 1984 to September 1987 as bond funds pulled money from stock funds, even though stocks were on the rise.

And what happened after these two and a half years – “Black Monday” – The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 23% and ended the rally that lasted for a few years.

There are differences between now and then – yields on bonds today are much lower than in the 80s, and the stock market is already “over the hill” for quite some time.

Stock Market Dive in September October 2010?

Still, it’s important to remember that September and October are always turbulent months – apart from the stock market collapse 23 years ago, the recent global financial crisis in 2008 began in September and accelerated in October.

During the financial crisis, the US dollar and the Japanese yen made huge gains. These currencies enjoyed a “safe haven” status, even though the Japanese economy was still stuck and the US economy carried the whole world into the crisis. The reasoning was that the US could weather the storm better than smaller, more vulnerable economies.

It took many months until the other currencies such as the Euro, British Pound and the Australian dollar recovered, and this was undermined once again when fears of European debt issues and fears of a US slowdown became dominant.

In the financial crisis of 2008, the Swiss Franc failed to work as a safe haven currency. It’s status as a shelter in times of trouble could return this time.

It’s still summertime, and volumes aren’t very high. Nevertheless, even in this month of August, there has been rather strong activity in currency trading. Will volatility heighten in the next two months? Will a stock market crash fuel the US dollar? We’ll see quite soon.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

EUR/USD Aug. 23: Euro Consolidating After Big Fall

Posted: 22 Aug 2010 10:38 PM PDT


The big fall on Friday left EUR/USD at lower ground, and it’s now consolidating. Will manage to recover? Or will it continue downwards? Here’s a quick update on fundamentals, technicals and community trends.

eur usd forecast

EUR/USD below long term support – click to enlarge

EUR/USD Technicals

  • Asian session:  Quiet opening of the week – EUR/USD traded in a very narrow range in a quiet Asian session, between 1.2690 and 1.2722.
  • Current Range is between 1.2610 to 1.2722.
  • Further levels: Below, 1.2460, 1.2330 and 1.2150. Above  1.2790, 1.2880, 1.2930 and 1.30
  • Long term: On August 20th, EUR/USD lost less steep uptrend channel began on June 7th, from the year-to-date low of 1.1876. This turns into a resistance line now. For today, it stands on 1.2821. A break above this level will trigger a sharp recovery.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 GMT: French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 53.3.
  • 7:00 GMT: French Flash Services PMI. Exp. 60.7.
  • 7:30 GMT: German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 60.9.
  • 7:30 GMT: German Flash Services PMI. Exp. 56.3.
  • 8:00 GMT: All-European Flash Manufacturing PMI. Exp. 56.4.
  • 8:00 GMT: All-European Flash Services PMI. Exp. 55.6.
  • 14:00 GMT: European Consumer Confidence. Exp. -13.
  • 14:30 GMT: US FOMC member Thomas Hoeing (hawk) speaks.

EUR/USD Sentiment

  • Market is in risk aversive mood. This means that bad US indicators are dollar positive.
  • Friday’s fall signals more falls ahead.
  • PMI figures will cause choppy trading, but are unlikely to have a long term impact.
  • Currensee Community: 55% are Short, 45% are long. These are 866 open positions in real accounts trading this pair at the moment.

Note – This is a new and still experimental section on Forex Crunch. It’s still in development.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free..

Forex Daily Outlook – August 23 2010

Posted: 22 Aug 2010 02:00 PM PDT


U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoenig testifies before the House Committee on Oversight and Investigations in Kansas and Euro-Zone Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes start the economic activities this week. Here is an outlook on today’s market moving events.

In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas President Thomas Hoenig testifies before the House Committee on Oversight and Investigations in Kansas. Key interest rates may be affected and information on future monetary policy could be revealed.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Indexes, two leading indicators of economic conditions measuring the activity of purchasing managers in the manufacturing and services sectors are expected to show signs of a slowdown;

French Flash Manufacturing PMI forecasted to continue its decrease to 53.3 following 53.9 in the previous month and French Flash Services PMI is expected to reach 60.7 points 0.4 points weaker than in July.

German Flash Manufacturing PMI also expecting a small decrease from 61.2 in July to 60.9 and German Flash Services PMI from 56.5 points to 56.3.

The preliminary flash estimate of the Euro-zone manufacturing index forecasted to pull back slightly to 56.3 from 56.7 and services index from 55.8 to 55.6.

Also in Europe, Consumer Confidence a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity expected to show further improvement from -14 to -13 still a far from the zero line.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

Binary Options Setups – August 23-27

Posted: 22 Aug 2010 07:00 AM PDT


This week consists of quite a few market moving events that could provide opportunities for binary options trading. Here are 6 events with potential market reactions and binary options setups.

Binary options can be used as an alternative to the traditional stop loss, as a tool for protecting against false breakouts and lots more. One-hour binary options can be used for trading on news events. 

You can trade binary options at StartOptions, a respected binary options provider.

I’ve selected the events and the setups based on study already done for the forex weekly outlooks, and the potential reactions to surprises. Some events collide with each other and could offset each other. These events weren’t selected.

Quick explanation:

  • CALL options – if the price closes above the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes below, you’re left with 10%.
  • PUT options – if the price closes below the price you purchased at expiry, you earn 75%. If it closes above, you’re left with 10%.

OK, let’s review the events:

  1. US Existing Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00 GMT. Market expectations currently stand on 4.66 million. 5.40 million or higher – PUT option on EUR/USD. 4.20 million or lower, CALL option on EUR/USD.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Wednesday, 8:00 GMT. Market 105.8 points. 108 or higher – CALL option on EUR/USD. 102 or lower -PUT option on EUR/USD.
  3. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00 GMT. Market expectations currently stand on 335K. 440K or higher – PUT option on EUR/USD. 295K or lower, CALL option on EUR/USD.
  4. Australian Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday 1:30 GMT. Market expectations stand on +2.4%. 3.2% or higher – CALL option on AUD/USD. 1% or lower – PUT option on AUD/USD.
  5. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday 12:30 GMT. Market expects 486K. 505K or higher – CALL option on EUR/USD. Below 430K – PUT option on EUR/USD.
  6. British GDP (second release): Friday 8:30 GMT: Market expects +1.1%. 1.4% or higher – CALL option on GBP/USD. 0.7% or lower – PUT option on GBP/USD.
  7. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer: Friday 9:30 GMT. Market expects 2.24 points. 2.35 points or more – PUT option on USD/CHF. 2.10 or lower – CALL option on USD/CHF.
  8. US GDP (second release): Friday 12:30 GMT: Market expects +1.5%. 2.5% or higher – PUT option on EUR/USD. 1% or lower – CALL option on EUR/USD.

These expected market reactions and setups are general market commentary. This is by no means investment advice.

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