Aug 31, 2011

Forex Crunch EUR/USD Aug 31- Worries Balanced As Summer Ends

Forex Crunch EUR/USD Aug 31- Worries Balanced As Summer Ends

EUR/USD Aug 31- Worries Balanced As Summer Ends

Posted: 31 Aug 2011 04:22 AM PDT

Euro dollar is stuck in range, drifting between hopes for QE3 in the US and worries about the European debt crisis. As summer ends, volume and volatility are expected to pick up. We have important US data later on.

Here's a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what's going on in the markets.

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Aussie defiance

Posted: 31 Aug 2011 02:37 AM PDT

It could be argued that it has been a terrible month for the Aussie. The economy down under is clearly slowing, there is speculation that the RBA might even lower rates before the end of the year, house prices are declining, some of the world's major advanced economies may be lurching back into recession and investors have suffered a risk aversion relapse. The DAX for instance is down a staggering 21% for August, whilst many other major bourses are down more than double digits (in percentage terms).

And yet despite all of this seemingly bad news the AUD has lost only 2.5% against the dollar this month, and is down less than 3% against the euro.

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AUD/USD: Recovery Since Aug 9th still Searching For A Top

Posted: 31 Aug 2011 01:02 AM PDT

Aussie rallied into a new high in recent sessions, after the prices were unable to break through the swing lows that we paid attention on in the past week. So as long this pair will be forming higher highs and higher lows, trend will be considered as a bullish, but still corrective!

We are now looking at the updated wave count from August lows which is corrective, showing a double zig-zag pattern with final part; wave (c) in progress. If we are correct, then an impulsive bearish reversal should occur in coming days, but the question is from where!?

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Fed minutes shine a light in the dark tunnel

Posted: 31 Aug 2011 12:14 AM PDT

The minutes of the August meeting of the US Fed showed "a few" members of the committee "felt that recent economic developments justified a more substantial move" going beyond the change in language that was offered previously (committing to low rates until mid-2013). This complemented the three members dissenting against the easing of language. In other words, the committee is the most divided it's been for at least nearly twenty years. The minutes come at the end of what has been a very fraught month for financial markets. Amongst the major currencies, the best performers have, surprisingly, been the single currency and the dollar.

Against the backdrop of a deepening sovereign debt crisis, the euro has actually managed a small gain against the greenback this month. Also illuminating has been the dollar's ability to largely ignore the debt ceiling debacle, the S&P sovereign debt rating-downgrade and signs that the economy is possibly lurching back towards recession. The worst-performing major currency has been the Swiss franc, after a long period of being at the top of the currency performance league. No doubt this will please the SNB, which has been extremely aggravated by the strength of the currency. The Swissie climbed back above 0.82 on Monday, after reaching a record below 0.71 just three weeks ago. High-beta currencies such as the Aussie and the South African rand are near the bottom of the rankings amongst the major currencies. It has not been all bad news for the safe-havens; the gold price is still up 10% for August, despite the huge wobble at the end of last week.

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USD/CHF: Trading the Swiss GDP

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 08:49 PM PDT

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a quarterly index which measures the production and growth of the economy, is one the most important economic indicators of the health of the economy. The publication of Swiss GDP may have a critical effect on USD/CHF.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CHF.

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USD/JPY: Trading the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 04:39 PM PDT

The ADP Private Sector Job Indicator is a significant index which estimates the change in employment figures. It is an important indicator of job creation, which in turn impacts on consumer spending and economic growth.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

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Forex Daily Outlook – August 31 2011

Posted: 30 Aug 2011 02:00 PM PDT

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in the US and GDP in Canada are the main events today.  Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, vale the employed people without government & farming business on the passing month, reduce of 7K is predicted to 103K.

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