May 17, 2010

Forex Crunch Top 5 Forex Forums

Forex Crunch Top 5 Forex Forums

Top 5 Forex Forums

Posted: 17 May 2010 02:00 AM PDT


Here are my top 5 choices, according to their design, structure, level of activity of the spam-fighting.

Online forums supply a need to share and communicate with fellow traders while sitting alone in front of the computer. A simple Google search for forex forums will yield many more results in the front page, but not all of them are good enough. Here are my choices.

  1. Forex Factory: The leading independent forex forum.  The number of  viewers that read the messages and the number of users that participate in the forums’ various threads are huge. There aren’t many forums, and the intense debates are seen in a few long running threads. Note that other threads are also active. The forum is based on the known straightforward phpBB platform, but was significantly tweaked. One of the things that make it a valuable resource is the high level of spam-fighting – the moderators, which work transparently, are tough with anything that smells like an unauthorized advertisement and the big amount of users also help in identifying these problematic replies. The site also has a calendar and a news section – both also popular.
  2. Forex-TSD: This is also a very popular. It’s design is more flat, making the threads more equal in popularity. There are no additional sections – this also contributes to the distribution of discussions. Also here, a high level of spam-fighting is seen – the moderators act quietly to eliminate unwanted messages.
  3. FXStreet forums: The big independent forex portal has lots of resources, and the forum isn’t in the limelight. Still, the forum section is very well organized, has interesting debates about forex strategies, and enjoys a high level of moderation. One of the features that stands out is Ask The Wizard forum, where newbies get quick answers to their questions.
  4. DailyFX forums: This portal, which is owned by FXCM, is rich in resources and in features. In my review of DailyFX, I mentioned that the forums are strictly separated from the main site. This is not to my liking, yet the forums are quite active and are well designed. For example, there’s a forum for each of the major currency pairs. The forum is moderated, but this moderation is sometimes slow – spam messages can get too much exposure in comparison to other forums.
  5. Oanda FXTrade: Oanda is possibly the biggest broker in the world in terms of traders. The forums have a significant number of their traders, so some of the discussions are Oanda-related. These discussions are valuable to users of the platform, an advantage I haven’t seen in other forums that belong to brokers. The level of activity is good, with a nice distribution of threads. Similar to Forex Factory, the moderation is transparent, and this is great. But similar to DailyFX, it’s sometimes slow.

Do you have additional high quality forums that you think that belong in the list? Let me know…

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

Forex Daily Outlook – May 17 2010

Posted: 16 May 2010 02:00 PM PDT


We start the week with a significant rise in TIC Long-Term Purchases in the US continues in Swiss SNB Chairman Hildebrand Speech, Let's see the other interesting news up for today

Treasury International Capital (TIC) Long-Term Purchases released monthly represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment is rising up to 50.5 Billion from 47.1 Billion.

In the US, Empire State Manufacturing Index, released monthly, is measuring the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in New York State; Survey of about 200 manufacturers in New York State which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions; is forecast to droop to 30.2 from 31.9 last month.

Later in the US, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales; measures the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; is about to rise up from 19 to 20.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Rightmove House Price Index (HPI). This is the UK’s earliest monthly report on housing inflation, It’s a leading indicator of the housing industry’s health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; It will probably be similar this time.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board Chairman Philipp Hildebrand Speaks about course for Swiss economy, in Zurich; he controls short term interest rates, and have the highest influence over the nation’s currency value. Traders often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

In New Zealand, Producer Price Index (PPI) Input that measures the change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers will probably be similar this time & Producer Price Index (PPI) that measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers will probably show another rise of 0.1% could be seen now

In Japan, Tertiary Industry Activity that Measures the Change in the total value of services purchased by businesses; indicate early signal of future economic activity is about to droop down from -0.2% to -1.3%. 

Later in Japan, Core Machinery Orders that measures the change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders is about to rise up from -5.4% to 6%

More in Japan, Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) that Measures the change in the price of goods sold by corporations is forecasted to rise up from -1.3% to -0.2%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

 

USD/CAD Outlook – May 17-21

Posted: 16 May 2010 06:40 AM PDT


The loonie stood out in the past week, and actually made gains against the greenback. The upcoming week consists of important economic indicators, with inflation being critical for the rate decision. Here’s an outlook for Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

The stability of the Canadian economy and the imminent rate hike made the loonie stand out in a terrible week for many currencies. This came despite weaker-than-expected trade balance. Let’s start:

  1. Foreign Securities Purchases: Published on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT. This figure actually shows the confidence that foreigners have in the Canadian economy. After a few surprising months that the figure was above 10 billion, it surprisingly fell to 6.7 billion last month. A rise back towards 7.3 billion is expected now.
  2. Wholesale Sales: Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT. This indicator is published almost two months after the measured month. Nevertheless, it moves the markets. 5 months of rises were followed by last month’s disappointing drop of 1.2%. Sales are expected to get back up this time, by 0.3%.
  3. Leading Index: Published on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. 10 economic indicators compose this figure, giving an overview of the economy. The rise of 1% seen last month surprised analysts, and showed the strength of the Canadian economy. A similar rise is predicted this time.
  4. CPI: Published on Friday at 11:00 GMT. Consumer prices stalled last month, after two months of rises. Core CPI, which is no less important, dropped by 0.2%. If similar figures will be seen again, this could mean that the expected Canadian rate hike could come only on the July 20 meeting. This is a key event. Both figures are expected to rise by 0.3%.
  5. Retail Sales: Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Also retail sales disappointed last month – rising by only 0.5% – half the expectations. Core retail sales dropped by 0.1%. These worrying numbers will probably be followed by a rise in retail sales volume this time.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD gradually went down, crossing 1.02 and reaching 1.01 before bouncing back up and closing at 1.0334. This is still lower than last week’s close above 1.04.

Note that some lines were modified since last week’s outlook. USD/CAD now trades between 1.02 and 1.04, a range that the pair knows from the past.

Looking up, the next resistance line is 1.0680 – this was a swing high and now serves as a minor resistance line. Higher, 1.0780 is a very strong resistance line, being the upper border of a long-term range.

Below 1.02, the next level of support is at 1.01. After the pair reached parity it bounced back to this level, that changed its role to a support line in the past week. Lower, parity remains a pivotal point.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD.

The outstanding performance of the Canadian dollar against the greenback and the upcoming rate hike will continue pushing the pair down, even as other currencies are surrendering to the mighty US dollar.

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

EUR/USD Outlook – May 17-21

Posted: 16 May 2010 06:06 AM PDT


Another terrible week sent the Euro to critical levels. The Euro will now move by two major surveys and other indicators as well, as the debt crisis will continue accompanying us. Here’s an outlook for the European events, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, looking down.

EUR/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

EUR USD forecast

The French president’s threat to take his country out of the Euro-zone came only a few days after there was great hope about the huge 750 billion euro aid plan. Note that not only the Euro is affected by the  contagious debt-laden countries. OK, let’s start:

  1. French Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Tuesday at 6:45 GMT. This is a quarterly release, hence its importance. The number of employed people is on the fall in France since Q1 of 2008. Europe’s second largest economy is rather stable, and could see a rise jobs this time – 0.1%.
  2. ZEW Economic Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. This major survey finally recovered last month – after 6 months of drops that hurt the Euro. The rise to 53 points helped stabilize the Euro. Given the deteriorating debt troubles across the continent, this survey of 350 investors will probably drop this time. Also note the all-European sentiment. It also recovered to 46 points, and could drop as well. The German figure is considered more accurate.
  3. CPI: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. European prices have risen last month, and reached an annual rate of 2.4%. This still OK, and doesn’t poise a threat. Dealing with inflation and unemployment at the same time is a big problem. Core CPI rose by 1%. A rise above 2% will be a big surprise, but this isn’t likely.
  4. Jean-Claude Trichet talks: Starts speaking on Wednesday at 14:00 GMT. During this huge financial crisis, Trichet’s words are very important. It’s role as a stabilizer is crucial. In his speech in Frankfurt, Trichet will definitely shake the Euro.
  5. German PPI: Published on Thursday at 6:00 GMT. Producer prices in Germany surprised with a rise of 0.7%, stronger than expected. As we learned from the past, producer prices jump and then stall, so only a few consecutive months of rises could be significant for the Euro.
  6. Consumer Confidence: Published on Thursday at 14:00 GMT. This survey, made by Eurostat has shown less pessimism – the figure reached -15, negative but improving. The 2,300 consumers that are surveyed for this indicator are likely to produce the same score this time.
  7. Flash PMI: Published on Friday between 7:00 to 8:00 GMT. The initial purchasing managers’ indices for the manufacturing and services sectors are released by France, then Germany and then for the entire continent. These crowded releases usually cause choppy trading. All the scores are above 50, meaning economic expansion, and they’re all predicted to edge up.
  8. German Ifo Business Climate: Published on Friday at 8:00 GMT. This major European survey climbed steadily in the past year. Also last month, a positive surprise was recorded when score passed the 100 point mark. Another small rise can be expected this time, supporting the Euro.
  9. Current Account: Published on Friday at 9:00 GMT. The total value of all goods (trade balance), income flows, services and money has turned negative in the past two months. This deficit will probably continue for another month, putting yet another weight on the Euro.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week with a huge and positive weekend gap – testing the 1.3114 resistance line. This was short-lived – the pair deteriorated gradually and then collapsed to close at 1.2356.

Note that some lines where modified since last week’s outlook. Now, the pair is very close to the 2009 low of 1.2331, and ranges between this line and 1.24, which is a minor resistance line.

Looking up, a more important resistance line is 1.2520, which provided temporary support for the pair in the past week, and also way back in the past.

Higher, 1.2880 is now only a minor resistance line, with 1.3114 being a significant stronghold – it worked perfectly in the past week and also in the one before it.

Looking down, if EUR/USD breaks below 1.2331, the next line are 1.22, 1.2060 and 1.1840. The low levels were last seen in 2006. Yes, four years ago…

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Exactly as I wrote last week, the Euro could recover at the beginning of the week, but the general direction is down -the debt problems are just too heavy.

This pair receives great reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

  • Andrei brings his technical levels for the next week, and send a hold signal for the Euro.
  • James Chen sees more bearishness ahead, in addition to the big drops we’ve already seen.
  • Casey Stubbs follows the Euro closely, and has excellent analysis for EUR/USD and other Euro pairs.
  • The Geek Knows reviews the week and looks forward.

Further reading on Forex Crunch:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

GBP/USD Outlook – May 17-21

Posted: 16 May 2010 05:20 AM PDT


A busy week expects cable traders: inflation and retail sales will stand out among the many events. Here’s an outlook for the events that will rock the Pound and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD, now at lower ground.

GBP/USD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

Yet another improvement was seen in the British job market,a positive legacy of Brown’s government. Also other economic indicators shined, but this wasn’t enough for the Pound. OK, let’s start. The technical analysis will follow:

  1. Rightmove HPI: Published on Sunday at 23:00 GMT. The earliest house price report is published early in the week, but isn’t too accurate. In the past 4 months, Rightmove has shown rises in prices. The 2.6% rise seen last month will probably be followed by a smaller rise this time.
  2. CPI: Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT. Inflation has picked up in Britain, but didn’t get out of control. Now that the elections are behind us, Mervyn King can act against it, and not only dismiss it. The rise to an annual rate of 3.4%, above the government’s target, will probably be followed by a similar figure. Also Core CPI is at 3%, and the RPI (retail price index) already reached 4.4%. If expectations are met, and inflation remains above 3%, Mervyn King is obliged to publish an open letter to the government explaining the reasons for this and the measures that will be taken to tackle it. This might reveal an upcoming rate hike. CPI is expected to stand now at 3.5%.
  3. CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. The Confederation of British Industry surveys 550 manufacturers for this important figure. The relative level of order volume for the next months has been stable recently – around -36. This negative number will probably be followed this time as well.
  4. MPC Meeting Minutes: Published on Wednesday at 8:30 GMT. It will be interesting to see how the different members voted on the last rate decision. Note that a unanimous vote, seen in recent months won’t necessary repeat itself. Also here, further policy hints might be released.
  5. Retail Sales: Published on Thursday at 8:30 GMT. This important consumer related figure rose by 0.4% last month, slightly below expectations, but still rising for a second month in a row, in this rather volatile indicator. Another small rise is expected this time – 0.3%.
  6. Public Sector Net Borrowing: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT. This is the last release before the next government assumes office. Borrowing doubled to 23.5 billion last month, exceeding expectations and creating worries about the government debt. A drop will probably be seen this time – to 11.2 billion.
  7. Business Investment: Published on Friday at 8:30 GMT.  This quarterly release dropped in the past 2 years, preceding the financial crisis. The drop in business investment was serious in Q4 – 5.8%. A rise this time cannot be ruled out, although a small drop sure is possible. This is in line with the weak growth rate.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Pound traded between 1.4780 and 1.5045 during most of the week, but then made a big collapse and closed at 1.4532, close to the swing low of 2010 that was set in the previous week.

GBP/USD now ranges between 1.44 and 1.4780, a wide range that already saw strong moves. Note that some of the lines have changed since last week’s outlook.

Looking up, 1.5045 is a minor line of resistance, serving as such during the past week. Higher, 1.5130 is already a much stronger line, that proved itself to be decisive recently.

Higher, 1.5350 still has a minor role, after working as a pivotal line for many weeks, and it’s followed by 1.5520.

1.44 was the low point in May 2009 and now works as a support line. Lower, 1.4130 provides further support, followed by 1.3950. All served as support line during the beginning of 2009.

The ultimate support line is 1.35, the 2009 low for the Pound. This is still far now.

I continue being bearish on GBP/USD.

Yet again, some economic indicators point to recovery and Pound strength, but the fragile financial situation i the Euro zone has a strong impact on British banks and the Pound, so further losses can be expected.

Further reading:

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.
posted by

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)