Posted: 23 May 2010 02:00 PM PDT

US Consumer Confidence is expected to continue its rise as well as Composite-20 HPI. US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech in London and House Price Index is expected to rise. Let us see what awaits us today.

In the US, CB Consumer Confidence is expected to continue its rise by 1.2 additional points following the remarkable score of 57.9 points in April which exceeded the forecast. Apparently US economic recovery is gaining pace.

Later in the US, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI measuring the change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas is expected to increase by 2.5% following April’s increase of 0.6% means good news for investors and the housing industry.

More in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard delivers a speech titled “The Road to Economic Recovery Following the Financial Crisis” at the European Economics and Financial Center, in London. Expected to affect interest rates and may provide hints on future monetary policy.

Finally in the US, House Price Index is expected to reach 0.0% after April’s decrease of -0.2% and Richmond Manufacturing Index is foreseen a drop of 5 points from 30 points in April.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Industrial New Orders are hoped to increase by 2.3% following 0.8% more than in April.

Also in Europe, Italian Retail Sales are expected to remain 0.1% as in April.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Great Britain, Revised Gross Domestic Product, released monthly, is expecting an annualized growth of 0.3%, 0.1% more than in the previous quarter which is a hopeful sign for the British market.

More in Great Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are also hoped to increase by 3400 compared to 34.9 K in April indicates a rise in the housing market demand.

Finally in Britain, Index of Services measuring the change in the total Gross Value Added of the private and government services sectors is predicted to drop by 0.2% from 0.4% in April.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Inflation Expectations are assumed to remain unchanged from 2.7% in the previous quarter.

In Switzerland, UBS Consumption Indicator is also believed to remain around 1.71 points

In Japan, Monetary Policy Meeting Minute is released and shedding light on economic conditions that influenced interest rates decisions.

More in Japan, Corporate Services Price Index is expected to remain -1.1%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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Forex Daily Outlook – May 24 2010

Posted: 23 May 2010 02:00 PM PDT

In the US a rise in the Existing Home Sales, and Sandra Pianalts (US) and Speaks at the Ohio Northern University, in Great Britain Adam Posen speeches are affecting the nation’s key interest rates. Let's see the other interesting news up for today

In the US, Existing Home Sales, date about home resales that released monthly and measures the annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, is about to rise from 5.35 Million to 5.61 Million an leading indicator of economic health, triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Later in the US, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, President Sandra Pianalto deliver opening remarks at the Ohio Northern University, in Ada; affects the future monetary policy with the FOMC members votes on where to set the nation’s key interest rates.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Great Britain, Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); Member Adam Posen speaks at the School of Economics, in London and affects the monetary policy by setting nation’s key interest rates.

Read more about the Pound in the GBP/USD forecast.

In Australia, New Motor Vehicle Sales, released monthly and measures the change in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically. Affecting the future financial position and encouraging consumers to spend money.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monthly Report, recent economic and financial developments and contains the statistical data that the BOJ Policy Board members evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision.

Later in Japan, All Industries Activity, that measures the change in the total value of goods and services purchased by businesses is about to rise up to -0.6% from -2.3%, a leading indicator – businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their spending can be an early signal of future economic activity.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

EUR/USD Outlook – May 24-28

Posted: 23 May 2010 07:00 AM PDT

Another intense week ended with a significant recovery for the common currency. Will the recovery continue? Or was it just a temporary correction? Here’s an outlook for the events that will rock the Euro, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

The contagious debt problems sent the pair to four year lows, but it managed to end the week higher after the German parliament approved the huge bailout package. This week might be more stable… OK, let’s start:

Industrial New Orders: Published on Tuesday at 9:00 GMT. European manufacturers sent mixed signals in recent months. After last month’s nice rise in orders, 1.5%, expectations are for another rise, of 2.3% this time. Learning from the past, a drop won’t be a big surprise.
German GfK Consumer Climate: Published on Wednesday at 6:00 GMT. 2,000 German consumers are surveyed for this important indicator. After many months of stability, this indicator finally rose to 3.8 points, showing that consumers feel better about the economic situation. A small drop to 3.7 points is predicted this time. A bigger drop will probably be seen next time – representing the impact of the financial crisis.
French Consumer Spending: Published on Wednesday at 6:45 GMT. Also in Europe’s second largest economy, consumers showed growing confidence as their spending rose by 1.2% last time. This is expected to change now, with a drop of 0.5%.
NBB Business Climate: Published on Wednesday at 13:00 GMT. This wide survey of 6,000 businesses is highly regarded, despite coming from a small country – Belgium. The score improved to from -3.6 to -2.4 and is expected to edge up to -2.1. The improving negative score means that businesses are now less pessimistic. Also here, a negative change will probably seen next time.
German CPI: Published on Thursday. The different German states release their consumer price index throughout the day, building up the preliminary release. Inflation seemed to pick up two months ago, as prices rose by 0.5%, but last month’s drop of 0.1% showed that no big change is coming. A small rise of 0.1% is expected this time.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro began the week with a quick deterioration below the “Lehman levels”, 1.2330 and even broke another technical level, 1.22, before making an impressing comeback and closing above 1.2520, at 1.2563.

The current range for the pair is between 1.2520, which held the Euro temporarily before a bigger collapse, and 1.2672, a new line (didn’t appear in last week’s outlook), that was the peak in the past week.

Looking higher, 1.2880 is the next line of resistance, being a significant line of support about one year ago. The next important line of resistance is 1.3114, which held the pair before it fell below 1.30.

Further resistance is found at 1.3267, which also had an important role as a support line. 1.3440 is the next hurdle, but it’s quite far.

Looking down, immediate support can still be found at the 2008 low of 1.2330. This is followed by the round number of 1.22, which worked as a support line back in 2006, and the fresh year-to-date low of 1.2144.

Even lower, the round number of 1.20 provides more support. Stronger support is found at 1.1820, which was a strong support line, and 1.1630, the lowest level since 2003. Low levels indeed.

I remain bearish on EUR/USD.

Despite the fresh optimism from the German approval, the markets are still far from stabilization. The Euro can experience more rounds of downfalls before settling down. Contagious diseases take time to cure.

This pair receives many great reviews on the web. Here are my favorites:

Casey Stubbs provides a fresh and excellent strategy for EUR/USD using his 4 hour charts.
Mohammed Isah analyzes the graphs and focuses on the recent rise.
Kathy Lien explains why the Euro could hit 1.20. This was recorded before Friday’s recovery.
James Chen sees a bullish correction in the strong downtrend.
The Geek Knows reviews the past week and looks forward.

Forex technikal and fundamental analysis

May 24, 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – May 25 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – May 25 2010

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