Forex technikal and fundamental analysis: Forex Crunch Support and Resistance (S&R) Analysis

May 3, 2010

Forex Crunch Support and Resistance (S&R) Analysis – May 3rd

Support and Resistance (S&R) Analysis – May 3rd

Posted: 03 May 2010 05:00 AM PDT

Guest post by bforex

EURUSD:

The EUR has been under pressure lately, but is bouncing off lows after touching an intra day low just north of 1.31. The 50 day moving average will act as strong Resistance for the EUR. However, a close above the 50 day MA coupled with a close above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retrace at 1.36 may have the EUR challenging more meaningful Resistance at 1.38. The prevailing trend line is still downwards sloping and a drop back below near term support at 1.3280 may have the EUR once again retesting recent lows.

tech may03 eur usd

GBPUSD:

The British Pound was trying to rally until sovereign default risk sky rocketed. The GBP has since found Support at the 50 day Moving Average. Additionally, the GBP is trying to keep above the prior range between 1.4975 and 1.5310. The most recent but short lived range holds between 1.5310 and 1.55. The 100 day moving average is not far behind at 1.56. Using a Fibonacci Retrace from the 2009 high to the 2010 low also places the 23.6% Retrace at the 1.5310/5 S&R handle. A close below the 50 MA would signal further GBP weakness. A close above Resistance and the 23.6% Fibonacci level and the Pound may look to retest 1.55 again.

tech may03 gbp

USDCAD:

After attempting to blow beyond Dollar parity for much of the last 6 weeks the CAD is finally looking a little weak. It is currently sitting at near term CAD Support which coincides with the 50 day moving average. When 2 significant points collide it usually triggers sizable price action on a break out (should one occur). A close above Support and the 50 day MA will signal possible further CAD weakness ahead. While a bounce off these levels would suggest the CAD will continue to trade this narrow range between 1.0167 and .9980. A close below .9950 and the CAD will have regained momentum.

tech may03 cad

Forex Daily Outlook – May 3 2010

Posted: 02 May 2010 02:00 PM PDT

Starting the week with a variety of events. ISM Manufacturing PMI in the USD, Labor Cost Index in New Zealand and President Axel Weber speak in Frankfurt; Let see what else awaits us this day,

In the US, Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI); Survey released monthly of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions is expected to rise from 59.6 to 60 and influence the company’s view of the economy, while the ISM Manufacturing Prices is expected to droop down to 72.9 from 75.0.

Later in the US, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Price Index, Released monthly. Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; will probably be similar this time

More in the US, Personal Spending, released monthly, change in the total value of inflation-adjusted expenditures by consumers is expected to rise up to 0.7% from 0.3% and influence the economic health.

Later in the US, Construction Spending Released monthly. Change in the total amount builders spent on construction projects; expected to droop down from -1.3% to -0.4%

More in the US, Total Vehicle Sales monthly data reported in an annualized format; number of cars and trucks sold domestically during the previous month; expected to decrease in about 0.3%.

Finally in the US, Personal Income released monthly .Change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers expected to rise by 0.4%.

In Europe, Deutsche Bundesbank President, Weber Axel, one of the most influential members of the council speaks at the event honoring outgoing Bundesbank board members, in Frankfurt. His public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;

Also in Europe, Final Manufacturing PMI, survey of about 600 purchasing, managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Switzerland, Schweizerischer Verband fur Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), survey of about 200 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions, expected to droop down by 1%.

In Australia, House Price Index (HPI), released quarterly, Change in the selling price of homes in the nation’s 8 state capitals; is expected to drop down to 3.2% from 5.2%, and influence the housing industry’s health.

Later in Australia, Commodity Prices, and change in the selling price of exported commodities.

Finally in Australia, Melbourne Institute (MI) Inflation Gauge, Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released CPI data.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In New Zealand, Labor Cost Index released quarterly, Change in the price businesses pay for labor, excluding overtime is expected to rise to 0.4% and affect the leading indicator of consumer inflation.

More in New Zealand, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Commodity Prices, released Monthly, Tends to have a muted impact.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

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