Forex Crunch Aussie Fights Back |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2010 02:03 AM PST
The Australian dollar reminded us of its strength, riding north on another round of good employment figures. It’s now approaching an important resistance line. An update on this strong currency. The Australian unemployment rate fell to the lowest level in 11 months: only 5.3%. This exceeded expectations for a small rise from 5.5% to 5.6%. Contrary to the US, where the unemployment rate falls and jobs are are lost, Australia sees another rise in jobs: 52.7K – almost four times the early expectations of 15.2K job gains. Note that also last month’s job gain was revised upwards to 37.2K. All in all, we’ve seen four strong months of Australian job gains, exceeding expectations in both parameters again and again. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie leaped after the release: AUD/USD made a instant sharp more of about 100 pips from 0.8760 to 0.8860 and then continued above 0.89. The move stopped at the time of writing. The big technical barrier appears at 0.8950, a line that served many times as a support and resistance line. If this barrier is broken, the next hurdles appear at 0.9090 and 0.9170. If the dollar sweeps the board as it did in the same time last week, the Aussie is supported at 0.88, followed by 0.8735. Even lower, strong support is found at 0.8567. For more technical lines, check out the AUD/USD forecast. The Australian economy is very strong. In recent weeks, the Aussie lost a lot of ground on Chinese tightening measure, risk aversion trading and also on the weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP. The employment indicator always has a strong impact. It sure pushes the Aussie higher. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2010 02:11 PM PST
EUR/GBP is enjoying new European hopes and disappointing British events. It’s now close to an important line and it erases the big move it made. Here’s a quick update. EUR/GBP now trades around 0.88, close to the 0.8840 resistance line. It already peaked twice at 0.8820. 0.8840 was broken a few weeks ago, and it was followed by a further plunge. Here’s why:European Hope In Europe, long weeks of crisis in Greece are about to end. The EU Economic Summit will probably decide on a bailout program for Greece. This debt isn’t only Greek but affected other European countries and had an impact on the whole world. EUR/USD already made its way above the important 1.3750 resistance line, but retreated. The situation of the Euro is much better now than last week, and it’s far enough from the bottom of 1.3580. It bounced off the lows. British Trouble In Britain, Mervyn King hurt the Pound again. In the quarterly BOE Inflation Report event he dismissed (again) the rising inflation and was very certain that it would meet the target. The central bank’s quantitative easing program (aka pound pouring plan) ran out of money and it seemed that it wouldn’t be renewed. King said that the program might receive more cash. Also the NIESR GDP estimate for Q4 was revised downwards to only 0.1% growth – quite weak. The estimate for the three months that ended in January was better, 0.4%, but after the revision, this is shaky. A small revision of the official initial release for Q4 and Britain will see no end to recession. All these figures weigh on the Pound. GBP/USD is very far from the pivotal 1.5720, and is looking to break down below 1.55. EUR/GBP Technicals Now that EUR/GBP is at an important resistance line, a line that was broken just a few weeks ago, it’ll be very interesting to watch. Below, 87.70 is an important support line, and above 0.8920 will be a spot where a breakout will slow down. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Forex Daily Outlook – February 11th 2010 Posted: 10 Feb 2010 02:00 PM PST
A busy day is expecting us. The focus is still on the Greek crisis – the market will move by the voices heard at the EU Economic Summit. There are lots of other figures elsewhere. Let’s see what’s up for today. Employment figures in Australia will rock the Aussie early in the day. Australian employment change is expected to show a gain of 15,100 jobs while the unemployment rate is predicted to edge up to 5.6%. Outstanding positive or negative figures can make the Aussie break technical levels. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast. Swiss CPI is expected to drop by 0.4%, double last month’s number. No rate hike is expected in Switzerland. The ECB Monthly Bulletin is expected to shed some light on the way that the central bank sees the economy. This will be overshadowed by a bigger event – The EU Economic Summit. This summit is expected to decide about a rescue plan from Greece. High expectations already boosted the Euro in recent days. A positive outcome is essential for the Euro. For more on the Euro’s technicals, I recommend reading Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis. For more on the upcoming events in Euroland, check out my EUR/USD forecast. American Unemployment Claims are predicted to show less claims this time – 460K instead of 480. This is the first weekly report of claims since the recent confusing Non-Farm Payrolls. The Federal Budget Balance wasn’t published yesterday, and it’s due today. In Canada, the NHPI is predicted to rise by 0.4%, exactly like last month. The Canadian dollar is getting away from the dangerous 1.0750 line. For more USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast. New Zealand closes the day with Retail Sales numbers. After a rise of 0.8% last month, they’re predicted to rise by 0.7% this time. Also note the core retail sales. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
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