Feb 24, 2010

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Gold, Silver And Precious Metal Stocks - Following The Stock Market Or The USD Index More?

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 03:50 AM PST

In the previous essay, we commented on the recent developments in the price of gold. The technical part of this week’s essay is dedicated to the situation in the precious metals stocks and the general stock market. The prices of these stocks are highly correlated with the underlying metals, which means that the following analysis is useful also to Investors and Speculators following the spot prices of gold and silver.

We summarized that the precious metals market has moved higher, and it … [visit site to read more]

NY Fed Treasury Spread Model: Probability Of Double-Dip Recession Is Zero

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 03:01 AM PST

Tuesday the New York Federal Reserve updated its “Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread” with data through January 2010, and the Fed’s recession probability forecast through January 2011 (see top chart above). The NY Fed’s model uses the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates (3.67% spread in January, the highest since May 2004) to calculate the probability of a recession in the U.S. twelve months ahead (see details here).

The Fed’s model (data … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading: Eurozone Industrial New Orders

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 02:04 AM PST

The EUR gained 50 pips against the USD after the release of much better than expected new orders out of the Eurozone, which came in as follows:

New Orders (MoM) - Survey: -1.0%   Actual: 0.8%   Prior: 1.6%
New Orders (YoY) - Survey: 7.6%   Actual: 9.5%   Prior: -1.5%

The EUR/USD is currently trading off session highs at … [visit site to read more]

Investors In The Gold Mining ETF (GDX) In Narrow Trading Range As Monetary Policy Unwinds

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 02:01 AM PST

“The gold price has closed within the narrow $25 band of $1,090 to $1,115 over the past eight trading days. Gold price volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index, has fallen 12.5% over the past two weeks as both stock and commodity markets have recovered their early February losses. The prices of gold mining stocks, after rallying over 10% in the first two weeks of the month as measured by the Market Vectors Gold Mining ETF (GDX), have settled into a narrow trading range,” Gold … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading Review For 24/02/2010

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 01:06 AM PST

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar gained versus the other majors after disappointing Consumer Confidence raised Risk Aversion again. CB Consumer Confidence came out weaker with 46 versus 55 forecast. NASDAQ and Dow Jones finished lower with -1.28% and -0.97% respectively near their session lows after disappointing consumer confidence reading and a stronger Dollar. Crude Oil declined by -1.81% closing at 78.86$ a barrel. Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.89% closing at 1,102.7$ an ounce. Today, New Home … [visit site to read more]

Are Earnings Estimates Suggesting 1,200 On The S&P 500?

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 01:01 AM PST

With most of earnings season behind us, it’s worth taking a look at the market’s overall valuation and how various industry sectors stack up.

Whew, earnings season is always a hectic time. Analysts and money managers are just trying to keep up with their portfolios, companies and sectors, along with bigger-picture issues. Think of all the financial data and management conference calls combined with broader economic and global issues such as China’s growth, Greece’s debt, the Volker rule and … [visit site to read more]

Video: FDIC Reports Growing Number Of Troubled Banks

Posted: 24 Feb 2010 01:00 AM PST

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said the number of distressed U.S. banks climbed to a 16-year peak. … [visit site to read more]

Goldman Sachs’ Gerald Corrigan: Best Defense Is Good Offense

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 11:01 PM PST

$300 million is a lot of money.

Was it enough for the preeminent firm on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), to risk its reputation? Apparently it was because that is the reported figure Goldman earned from transactions it structured and executed with the nation of Greece to help hide that nation’s fiscal woes. I do not discount that Goldman took risk in these transactions, but $300 million is a lot of money.

Believe me, every firm on Wall Street would sell its soul for a lot less than … [visit site to read more]

Are FINRA’s Days Numbered?

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 10:01 PM PST

Are the days of Wall Street’s self-regulatory organization known as FINRA numbered?

In the opinion of the very credible Project on Government Oversight, they should be. Why? Significant failures, massive conflicts of interest, and more. POGO’s comprehensive and scathing letter to four separate House and Senate committees touches upon every failing within FINRA, with the exception of the integrity of the proxy statement used in the formation of the organization itself. Strong … [visit site to read more]

Soaring College Costs: Adding Insult To Injury

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 09:01 PM PST

Last Thursday I got a call from a friendly guy who said he was a senior at my college alma mater.

Sensing where the conversation was about to go, I simply said “Just so you know, I’m not going to donate any money.” He said that was fine, and proceeded to ask me for my current contact information so they could update their files.

Geez, I thought. Have I become so callous and curmudgeonly that I cut this poor student off when he was simply trying to keep the college’s alumni records … [visit site to read more]

Platinum, Coal And More: Outlook For Metals And Mining ETFs

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 08:01 PM PST

The metals and mining sector is presenting opportunity this year, and analysts are eyeing this positive trend for investors in shares and exchange traded funds (ETFs).

An analyst with HSBC recently noted what he sees are the top opportunities in the metals and mining sector. The Wall Street Transcript says that the places to go this year will likely be bulk commodities, such as iron ore, coal, thermal coal and metallurgical.

Coal presents an especially good opportunity, says the analyst. … [visit site to read more]

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Index Improves For 12th Month

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 07:01 PM PST

“In December, the 10-City and 20-City S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices recorded annual declines of 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. These two indices, which are reported at a monthly frequency, have seen improvements in their annual rates of return every month since the beginning of the year (see chart … [visit site to read more]

Video: The Day Ahead: New Home Sales

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 07:00 PM PST

The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading: Euro Modestly Higher

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 06:34 PM PST

After moving lower with equities and other risk trades throughout NY, the EUR/USD pair is modestly better bid early in the Asian session following a better than expected trade balance reading out of Japan and with US equity futures trading higher. The pair is currently straddling the 38.2% retracement of the move over the last 3 trading days with resistance in the mid 1.35 handle where the 50% retracement of this move is as well as the 100 hr moving … [visit site to read more]

Coup Chaos Rocks Turkey ETF

Posted: 23 Feb 2010 06:18 PM PST

Turkish equity markets, which have been among the world's top performers over the last year, hit some major turbulence on Tuesday as revelations of arrests over a recent coup plot and ongoing trouble in neighbor and longtime rival Greece spooked investors. The news sent the iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR) plunging more than 5% on the day. According to various sources, including the BBC and the Canadian Press, prosecutors interrogated 51 Turkish Military commanders on Tuesday about alleged … [visit site to read more]
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