Feb 17, 2010

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions


Mutual Fund Flows Signal Support And Upside For The Stock Market

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 03:50 AM PST

Mutual fund and money market fund flows can provide insight on market moves. It makes sense for fundamental investors to keep an eye on these types of metrics.

With everyone focused on the modern-day Greek tragedy and how it might affect the U.S., I decided to go over an important tool that I pay attention to when trying to make heads or tails of these cloudy investing times.

Fund flows, which track money in and out of mutual funds, are pretty illustrative and valuable. They are a good … [visit site to read more]


5 Reasons To Consider Brazil And 5 Ways To Play It

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 02:38 AM PST

Are you interested in investing in emerging markets? Well, there are five good reasons why you should consider Brazil, along with five exchange traded funds (ETFs) to play the Brazilian market.

A growing consumer market and governmental aid have increased merger and acquisition activity in Brazil, reports Elzio Barreto for Reuters. Agribusiness, finance and consumer retail sectors are seeing more takeovers, corporate restructurings and ventures. The largest deal so far this year is the $21 … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: Eurozone Trade Balance Greater Than Expectations

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 02:02 AM PST

Eurozone Trade Balance came in at 7.0B, stronger than the 4.2B expected and prior reading of 3.9B.
Eur/Usd has seen a limited reaction as the pair currently trades at … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading Review For 17/02/2010

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 01:48 AM PST

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar fell sharply across the board as stocks and commodities soared. The Dollar failed to rise even better than expected data on the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index that came out 24.9 vs. expected 17 and in the TIC Net Long-Term Transactions that came out 63.3B vs. expected 50B. Markets in the US rose sharply. The Dow Jones gained 1.68% and the NASDAQ rose 1.4%. Commodities also rallied. Crude oil rallied rising more than 4% closing above 77$ a barrel. The Gold … [visit site to read more]


Urban China’s Dilemma

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 01:37 AM PST

Analysts at UBS have identified a challenge for a rapidly urbanizing China, and within that challenge, they see an opportunity for investors.

The challenge: more Chinese are moving to cities in search of work and they are making better money than they could in the countryside. But as incomes have risen, so have inflation and household spending. Savings by financially stretched urbanites have declined dramatically, and this means they may have trouble taking care of aging relatives and at the … [visit site to read more]


Video: U.S. Credit Card Reform Countdown Begins

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 01:00 AM PST

President Barack Obama’s Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act will take effect on February 22. … [visit site to read more]


Why The US Housing Market Will Remain Under Pressure

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 12:35 AM PST

I have maintained and continue to maintain that unless and until we see a measurable decline in mortgage delinquencies, we will not truly experience a measurable turn in the tide for housing overall.

In this same vein, new studies project that measures taken to aid delinquent borrowers and to stem the tide of foreclosures are nothing more than fingers in the dike. These measures are merely temporarily holding back a new and eventual wave of foreclosures.

The Wall Street Journal … [visit site to read more]


Trend Following 2.0

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 12:21 AM PST

I have written about the pros and cons of trend following models before (see examples here, here and here). Thomas Holmes of Genesis Futures Corporation, a commodity trading advisor (CTA), recently wrote the following about the diversification effects of trend following models:

Diversification will give some protection during slight or even moderate market perturbations. When a real disaster hits, supposedly diversified investments are subject to similar losses as concentrated positions … [visit site to read more]


Seven Most Corrupt Country ETFs

Posted: 17 Feb 2010 12:00 AM PST

Investing in emerging and frontier markets can often help investors to diversify equity holdings and provide exposure to growth opportunities not available in advanced economies. But with any opportunity for big gains often comes significant risk, including the potential for political instability, currency revaluation, and government intervention in the private sector. There's also the issue of corruption in the world's developing economies. While corruption exists everywhere, it is a way … [visit site to read more]


Tax Free Savings Account (TFSA) Or Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP)?

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 11:31 PM PST

In a C.D. Howe Institute e-brief released January 27, 2010, the writers claim that TFSA’s may be “a more tax efficient retirement saving vehicle than traditional tax-deferred accounts.”

Let’s take a look at the characteristics of both the RRSP and the TFSA and determine which is the better vehicle for saving, more particularly retirement saving. While the TFSA is considered to have greater flexibility, it is the different tax treatment of each plan that must be the main focus of … [visit site to read more]


How You Can Gain From The Explosive Trajectory Of China’s Currency

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 10:06 PM PST

Edging out Japan, it's set to soon become the world's second largest economy. It's already overtaken Germany as the world's largest exporter by shipping $1.2 trillion worth of goods in 2009. As a result, China looks destined for strength, as does its currency the yuan. It's currently pegged to the dollar, but there is a great deal of economic and political pressure building up to break the managed exchange rate.
From The Business Insider:
"The last really big currency realignment … [visit site to read more]


US Empire State Manufacturing Report Signals Improvement For 7th Month

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 10:01 PM PST

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved for a seventh consecutive month in February and at a relatively rapid pace. The general business conditions index for current conditions climbed 9 points, to 24.9 from 15.9 in January (see chart). The new orders index fell, though it remained positive, and the shipments index inched downward as well. The inventories index rose sharply, to 0.0, its highest reading in considerably more … [visit site to read more]


Greece “Trying To Change The Course Of The Titanic”

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 09:01 PM PST

April 15, 1912. Early in the morning of this fateful day, the unsinkable Titanic went below the waters of the icy Atlantic and sank to its eventual berth on the ocean floor.

In the process of hitting the iceberg that dealt the Titanic its fateful blow, the air of invincibility surrounding this greatest of ships became an air of inevitability.

With all due respect to those who perished that cold night in those icy waters, are we witnessing a similar dynamic playing out on our global … [visit site to read more]


Rydex Market Timers: Still Bearish

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 08:09 PM PST

Figure 1 is a daily chart of the S&P500. The indicator in the lower panel measures the ratio of the amount of assets in the Rydex bullish and leveraged funds relative to those funds that are bearish and leveraged.

Figure 1. S&P500/ daily/ Rydex Bullish and Leveraged v. Bearish and Leveraged

The current value of the indicator stands at 0.93 suggesting that the Rydex market timers are bearish, and this is a bullish signal. See the recent strategy piece on how this signal is combined … [visit site to read more]


Why Metal ETFs Are Showing Strength (Again)

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 08:01 PM PST

[After fits and starts, global metals prices and metals exchange traded funds (ETFs) are once again on the rise and stepping out from underneath oil's long shadow.

The price of base metals like copper and aluminum are rising, emerging from under a shadow that oil has long cast. Will Smale for BBC News reports that a growing number of metal mining companies have slipped into the FTSE 100 index of leading U.K. shares, many possessing names that are not English. What's going on?

China's ... [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: AUD/USD Bouncing Off MAVG’s

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 07:19 PM PST

The AUD/USD pair has been bouncing off moving averages after its 8 big figure free fall to start the new year. After initially finding support at the 200 day moving average, it was resisted on its retracement by the trending 21 day moving average. However, following yesterday's rally the pair has broke through the 21 day and has slowed down as it approached the 100 day moving average and consequently the 61.8% retracement of the latest move. It will be interesting to see if more resistance … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: EURUSD Looking To Move Again

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 07:17 PM PST

The EURUSD has been mired in a 29 pip low to high range since 2:00 PM NYT.  Eight hours later the 100 bar MA is moving sideways and the market is coiling for another move it seems.  The bias is positive/bullish above the 100 bar MA. The bias is negative/bearish below.  The 100 bar MA comes in at the 1.3765 level currently - where the price is located. 
A move below will confirm the downside bias with a push through 1.3750 recent low.  From there the next … [visit site to read more]


Video: The Day Ahead: FOMC Minutes

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 07:00 PM PST

The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]


U.S. Homeownership Down To 10-Year Low Of 67.2%; Bad Homeowners Return To Being Good Renters

Posted: 16 Feb 2010 06:45 PM PST

According to data released several weeks ago by the Census Bureau, the U.S. homeownership rate fell to 67.2% in the fourth quarter of 2009, the lowest rate since 67.1% in the first quarter of 2000, almost ten years ago. Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004, homeownerhip has fallen by two full percentage points.

Many would agree that he global financial crisis, mortgage tsunami, and housing bubble can all be traced to the political obsession to increase homeownership with easy … [visit site to read more]


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