Jan 9, 2010

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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ForexLive US wrap-up: Payrolls fall, dollar gyrates

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US non-farm payrolls fall 85,000, unemployed rate steady at 10% Canada losses 2,600 jobs; rate steady at 8.5%; weaker than expected Brazil says will use sovereign wealth fund to maintain steady exchange rate US wholesale inventories rise 1.5% in November; biggest gain in 5 years; positive for GDP Greece: EU visit helped improve budget ...

Consumer credit continues to drop

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Consumers have buried their credit cards, apparently. Consumer credit fell a record $17.5 bln in November.

Icelandic Parliament votes to approve Icesave referendum

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Iceland will hold a referendum no later than March 6 to decide whether Iceland should repay the billions the UK and Dutch governments loaned Iceland after its banking system collapsed and UK and Dutch deposits in Icesave were lost. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Iceland to return the deposits...

Lacker favors asset sales

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Lacker would like the Fed to sell bonds once they start unwinding their QE policies but says the Fed has not decided on the sequencing of exit measures yet. He says inflation expectations remain low and stable. EUR/USD has pulled back to the mid 1.44-teens with some real money selling of ...

Lacker takes exception to some Fed policy moves

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A Reuters headline quotes Richmond Fed president Lacker as saying some of the Fed's lending, from some views, could be considered fiscal policy. I'm guessing he's talking about the Treasury buying policy which essentially shifts money from government pocket to another. We'll see when the story is published... Also crossing the ...

Lacker fears inflation; global demand boosting exports

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Richmond Fed's Lacker is pretty upbeat on the US economy. He fears increasing inflation as the recovery unfolds but says a stabilizing labor market could boost consumer confidence. The economy is doing much better but faces challenges, the noted hawk says. Growth in H2 2009 will have averaged 3.75%, he says. A ...

EUR/USD reaches fresh session highs

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EUR/USD has taken out the 1.4415/20 area which was capped by Asian central bank selling after the poor US employment report this morning. Thus sales and subsequent sales at lower prices saw EUR/USD slide to 1.4300 but the Asian names are no where to be found as we make new ...

Geithner still has Obama’s confidence: White House

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White House spokesman Gibbs says that "Of course", Secretary Geithner still has the confidence of the president. He also said that Geithner was not involved in the decision that AIG should conceal that 100 cents on the dollar was paid to AIG credit default swap counterparties .

Greece: Defict reduction plan improved by EU inspection

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The Greek Finance minister  says his deficit reduction plan wa improved by the EU's inspection visit and that the visit reinforced the sense that the EU sees Greece moving in the right direction. Sounds like everything is hunky-dory know... EUR/USD continues its choppy comeback, trading now at 1.4390 from a 1.4300 low. ...

USD dipping again, oil positive

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The dollar is taking a dip amid reports that the Obama administration is considering some sort of 401k bailout scheme. As the holder of a greatly diminished 401K, I'm interested in hearing details, but it seems like the market is suffering from bailout fatigue. Every new program just adds to ...

UK economy likely to be downgraded, warns Invesco’s Neil Woodford

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Expert investor Neil Woodford warns that the UK economy is "not out of the woods" and advises against buying banking stocks.

20/200 cross in GBP/USD

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There's a 20/200 cross in cable at 1.6090. Depending on your bias, might be interesting to play it up there from here, and then ride it back down here- and perhaps further. (I was thinking about tagging this one "Jamie loves Cable", but I'll pass... ;)

Cable being beaten with the ugly stick

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Cable has been the worst performer of the majors since the the dollar slide following the poor US employment data. After a spike to 1.6110 following the news, the pound has turned sharply lower and fell to 1.5955 near the 16:00 GMT fixing, below its pre-payrolls report. Traders report a ...

Canadian opposition: Canadians don’t want an election

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Canada's Liberal Party has been threatening to bring down the government for months but its leader Ignatieff says that Canadians do not want another election despite Prime Minister Harper's suspension of Parliament. Good thing too, Canada was starting to look like Italy in the 90s....an election every 20 minutes...

V-shaped recovery on Thrursday, more stimulus on Friday

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How crazy is the world that one bad piece of data has us looking for an entirely different set of circumstances in a matter of hours. Before that data, the market was geared-up for a V-shaped recovery with job growth kicking in strongly in the months to come. A poor December ...

Kick ‘em when they’re up, kick ‘em when they’re down

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The market is chasing its tail in a major way today with EUR/USD spiking up to 1.4415 on the poor employment report only to run into heavy central bank sales above the 1.4400 level and on down...Looks like we could retrace the whole bounce...We trade now at 1.4320.

Wholesale inventories jump; Good for GDP

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US wholesale inventories jumped 1.5% in November versus expectations for a 0.2% rise. This is important because inventories are a major component of the GDP calculation, so that is a positive sign for a big rise in Q4 growth. The inventory rise was the biggest in 5 years. EUR/USD is under ...

Geithner summoned to Hill on AIG bailout

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What did Geithner know and when did he know it? That's what Congress would like to know. Yesterday's story on Bloomberg that the NY Fed asked AIG to hide the fact that it had paid out 100 cents on the dollar on CDS payouts is continuing to resonate.

Second stimulus?

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The downside of a weak employment report is that the government will use it to justify another stimulus package to curry favor with their political allies. With the budget deficit the number one concern of the markets, another package will be received poorly. White economist Christina Romer says any second package ...

Brazil to use SWF to buy dollars, if needed

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Brazil has been very aggressively trying to keep the Real from strengthening too much as a result of hot-money inflows into the sexiest of the BRICS. They added exchange controls last fall and now say they will use their sovereign wealth fund to buy dollars, if needed. There is "no ...

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