Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – January 29th 2010

Forex Daily Outlook – January 29th 2010

Posted: 28 Jan 2010 01:00 PM PST

The last day of January features the initial release for American GDP among other important events. Let’s see what’s up for today.

EUR/USD, the most popular pair is suffering losses. Casey Stubbs keeps up with the moves with fresh analysis all the time.

In Britain, GfK Consumer Confidence is predicted to rise from -19 to -18. Later in Britain. the important Nationwide HPI is due. It’s predicted to rise by 0.4%, exactly as last month. Will this take the Pound out of the current range? For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa, will make a speech in Tokyo, and might shake the Yen following the release of yesterday’s figures.

Australian Private Sector Credit is expected to show another month of a small rise. The Aussie manages to keep above the major support line of 0.8950, ahead of the rate decision next week. For more on the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to edge up from 1.68 to 1.72, easing the Swissy’s losses against the dollar.

In Europe, M3 Money Supply will supply a warm up from more market-moving events later. It’s predicted to squeeze for another month.

Europe’s inflation is expected to pick up from an annual rise of 0.9% to 1.2%. Such a move will help the Euro, as a rate hike will become more near. This is only the initial CPI Flash Estimate, but it’s usually correct.

At the same time, this rise may be offset by the European Unemployment Rate. Last month, this figure jumped to 10% and hurt the Euro before the NFP.

No good news are predicted from this important number: it’s predicted to rise to 10.1%, more than in the US. This might push the Euro/Dollar towards 1.3750. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Canada, monthly GDP is released together with the American one. GDP for the month of November is expected to rise by 0.3%, more than October’s 0.2% rise. This might halt the gains of the USD/CAD, but this figure isn’t alone. Canada’s RMPI is expected to rise by 1.5%, less than last month’s rise.

Read more about the technical lines for USD/CAD in the Canadian dollar forecast.

American GDP is predicted to rise by an annual rate of 4.5% in Q4. This strong rise will sure give hope, and might remove the bad taste from last month’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Note that this is the initial print, and that in Q3, we’ve seen an initial print of 3.5% and it was later fixed to 2.2%. So, we should take it with a grain of salt.

Also in the US, Chicago PMI is predicted to step down from 58.7 to 57.2, and the Revised Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan is predicted to rise from 72.8 to 73.2. These releases will be overshadowed by the GDP.

That’s it for today, this week, and this month. Happy forex trading!

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EUR/USD – New Week, New Lower Range

Posted: 28 Jan 2010 09:56 AM PST

EUR/USD dipped below another important support line and is getting used to a new range. Will it settle in a lower range next week? Not so fast. Here’s an updated technical look at EUR/USD.

The reasons for the fall start in Greece and end at Washington or Beijing – the EUR/USD bears are everywhere. But there’s a big bear-fence below…

At first, the Euro made an initial dip below 1.40. EUR/USD fell to 1.3937 before rising back up to 1.4040. This sharp swing was short-lived. This large move seemed at first as a false break – a false break at a major scale.

As the hours passed, 1.40 was breached again. EUR/USD is at 1.3960. Although this is higher than the initial dip, it lasts longer. So, after a first test, the breakout was confirmed.

EUR/USD fell from a range of 1.4450 to 1.4626 two weeks ago to its previous range of 1.42-1.4450 and then last week to 1.40-1.42. Now, towards the end of another week, it falls to below 1.40.

Where’s the next range? Will we see another lower range next week?

The next range is 1.3750 to 1.40. After being broken, 1.40 turns into a resistance line, and 1.3750 is the next major support. And it’s a very major support line. It was the bottom line at mid-June, and was never breached since then.

Before serving as a support line, it served as strong resistance line, being tested three times: twice in March and once in May of 2009. This line is very clear in many charts – many different time frames.

As EUR/USD settles in the new 1.3750-1.40 range, a further drop isn’t likely in the near future. The dollar will need great force (or the Euro great weakness) to cut through this line. The current strength of the dollar and the weakness of the Euro aren’t set for such a move in the near future.

As in the EUR/USD forecast, I remain bearish on this pair, but I draw the line at 1.3750.

Also check out Casey Stubbs‘ frequent updates on this pair, and James Chen’s recent analysis for it.

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