Forex Crunch Forex Links for the Weekend |
- Forex Links for the Weekend
- US Gained Jobs In November – Dollar Bulls Not Giving Up
- Canadian Jobs Lost – USD/CAD Leaps
- EUR/USD Badly Positioned for the NFP
| Posted: 08 Jan 2010 02:00 PM PST
After a busy week with a strong climax to start the year, here are some interesting forex-related articles. All of them have a scope of over a single day’s trading:
That’s it for now. Have a great weekend! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| US Gained Jobs In November – Dollar Bulls Not Giving Up Posted: 08 Jan 2010 06:00 AM PST
NFP was a disappointment with a significant job loss. But looking at last month’s figure gives the dollar bulls some strength, especially against the Euro. Non-Farm Payrolls for December fell by 85,000. This was a big disappointment, as the market was expecting a balanced figure, and even a rise in jobs. The rise in jobs did come – but in last month’s figure. Last month’s number was revised from a loss of 11,000 to a rise of 4,000. Although this is a late figure, it is the first gain in jobs in almost two years. Like this analysis of the NFP? Vote for it on Forex Factory. The Unemployment Rate remained at 10% – the double digit psychological level that weighs on policymakers. Also here, there is a small upside – Early expectations stood on a rise to 10.1%. This sweetens the pill… The focus is on the more recent data, so the dollar is losing ground across the board. But the move is quite hesitant. EUR/USD was down to 1.4270, suffering from bad employment figures in Europe. After the release of the NFP, it rose steadily to 1.44 (at the time of writing). The technical resistance region is at 1.4444 to 1.4480. EUR/USD is still keeping some distance from that line. It failed to break 1.4480 earlier this week, and doesn’t seem to push through at the moment. A loss of so many jobs, when there were high hopes for a gain in jobs should have sent EUR/USD leaping out of the range. The current move is slow for a Non-Farm Payrolls release, and it doesn’t break technical levels. I see last month’s revision as the reason. Note that a “Friday effect” could still happen. I’ll update this post on developments. Article republished on TheLFB. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Canadian Jobs Lost – USD/CAD Leaps Posted: 08 Jan 2010 04:10 AM PST
Canada’s job market disappointed with a loss of jobs. The Canadian dollar weakens but holds to gains – USD/CAD doesn’t lose an important resistance line. At least not yet. The Non-Farm Payrolls can take it anywhere. Canadian Employment Change showed a loss of 2,600 jobs. This small job loss isn’t devastating, but it falls short of expectations – a rise of about 20,000 jobs. The Canadian Unemployment Rate met expectations and remained unchanged at 8.5%. USD/CAD reacted with a leap from 1.0310 to 1.0370. This instant 60 pip jump is the result of disappointment, but it’s important to note that the important resistance line of 1.04 was not broken. Update: NFP fell by 85K – disappointment. But the Unemployment Rate remained at 10% (didn’t rise) and more importantly – last month’s figure saw a rise of 4,000 – the first in two years. EUR/USD is rising but hesitating. Here’s my reaction post: US Gained Jobs In November – Dollar Bulls Not Giving Up USD/CAD, as all the forex pairs, are awaiting the upcoming American Non-Farm Payrolls which are currently expected to drop by 3,000 jobs, but could also see gains. This could send the pair anywhere… At the beginning of the week, USD/CAD confirmed the break under 1.04. Although the move wasn’t strong, this was a very important support line. The pair traded in clear range: 1.04 to 1.0750. This range is described in the Canadian dollar forecast. During this week, it went lower and found a new and narrow range, roughly between 1.03 and 1.04. Canadian indicators were mixed. Earlier this week, Canadian RMPI (Raw Materials Price Index) rose by 2.2%, much more than 1.2% that was predicted. This follows the high CPI a few weeks ago. Rising prices in Canada mean that a rate hike can come sooner than expected. On the other hand, Ivey PMI, which is an important indicator for the Canadian economy, disappointed by dropping to 48.4 points, below 50. This is a sign of economic contraction, according to this indicator. All eyes are on the NFP. I’ll update this post with USD/CAD developments. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| EUR/USD Badly Positioned for the NFP Posted: 08 Jan 2010 03:13 AM PST
Close to the release of the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls, the Euro got some bad news and is now closer to the bottom of the range. Here’s an update. The European Unemployment Rate disappointed with a rise to 10%. This rise was worse than early expectations for a rise to 9.9%. We also found out that last month’s figure was already at 9.9%. The figure was revised from 9.% to 9.9%. Update: NFP fell by 85,000 – disappointment. But last month’s figure saw a rise of 4,000 – the first in two years. EUR/USD is rising but hesitating. Here’s my reaction post: US Gained Jobs In November – Dollar Bulls Not Giving Up Like this story? Vote for it on Forex Factory. This isn’t another disappointing figure. This double digit unemployment rate weighs heavily on Europe, especially on its flanks. Spain’s unemployment rate is at almost 20%. But this isn’t only a Spanish problem. Every 1 in 10 is unemployed. This figure perfectly matches the current American unemployment rate. Technical Look: EUR/USD is now trading under 1.43, very far from the resistance range at 1.4444 to 1.4480. In the past weeks, EUR/USD was supported by 1.42 and resisted by this range. It’s now closer to the bottom of the range. More on the pair in the EUR/USD forecast. Also German Industrial Production, released just now, disappointed with a small rise of 0.7%, less than 1.1% that was predicted. EUR/USD failed to break earlier this week, as it got good figures. With these bad numbers, it’s weakness is clearly seen. EUR/USD needs a very bad Non-Farm Payrolls figure in order to rise. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
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