Dec 14, 2011

Forex Crunch 3 Reasons for EUR/USD Under 1.30 – Where Now?

Forex Crunch 3 Reasons for EUR/USD Under 1.30 – Where Now?

3 Reasons for EUR/USD Under 1.30 – Where Now?

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 04:44 AM PST

Euro.dollar lost the 1.30 line, but didn’t get too far yet. The pair hit a fresh 11 month low at 1.2970. The year-to-date low is around 100 pips away.

This continues the terrible week that the euro is experiencing in the aftermath of the EU summit. For this specific move under 1.30, there are two main reasons:

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Blue skies giving way to cloud

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 02:28 AM PST

The Financial Times leads today with the cracks in the EU Treaty agreement, but these were already evident even at the start of the week.

It seems remarkable that the other eurozone 'outs' (such as Finland, Denmark, Sweden, as well as UK and others) are only now asking themselves the obvious questions, such as whether budget rules will apply just to eurozone members or all EU members. Video:

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Italy Pays High Price for 5 Year Bonds – EUR/USD Slips

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 02:13 AM PST

Italy managed to raise the money it wanted in a BTP auction, 3 billion euros. But the price was dear: the yield rose to 6.47% – high for 10 years, and even worse for 5 year bonds.

The last 5 year auction resulted in yields of 6.29%. This isn’t a big jump, but still a disappointment, after Spain saw a drop in yields.

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Market Overview For S&P, Euro and EUR/CHF

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 02:11 AM PST

The US dollar is trading sharply higher in this week, the moves are really significant particularity against the Euro, which always lost more than 200 pips when the S&P Futures fell just 25 points.

Well, if we take a look on the S&P Futures chart, then we can see that move from the 1270 peak is in five waves. Well, corrections are never in five, so we know that this five wave movement is only a first leg of incomplete corrective decline started at 1271. Its wave (a) of a zig-zag, which is now our primary view.

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British Unemployment Better Than Expected – GBP/USD Edges Up

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 01:31 AM PST

The unemployment rate in Britain remained unchanged at 8.3% in October, better than an expected rise. The more up to date figure, Claimant Count Change, continued rising. Clains are up by 3K. Also this is better than expected.

GBP/USD moved a bit higher, towards 1.5540, but the move is certainly limited.

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EUR/USD Dec. 14 – No Time to Lick the Wounds

Posted: 14 Dec 2011 12:46 AM PST

Euro dollar is holding above the round 1.30 line after the two-step downfall yesterday – a fall that started with no new money from Germany and continued with no new money from the US. The debt crisis will be felt today with a longer-term Italian auction, a vote of confidence in Finland and some fresh indicators. Will 1.30 be broken as well ?

Here's a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what's going on in the markets.

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Forex Daily Outlook December 14 2011

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 02:00 PM PST

Claimant Count Change in the UK is the main event today.  Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Import Prices, value the prices for imported goods and services, affects the businesses and consumers inflation, about to rise up from -0.6% on November to 1.0% now.

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USD/JPY: Trading the Tankan Manufacturing Index

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 01:39 PM PST

The Tankan Manufacturing Index is an important leading indicator, based on a survey of about 1200 large Japanese manufacturers, who are asked for their opinion on general business conditions. As such, the index helps provides a picture of the current business climate in Japan. A reading which exceeds the forecast is bullish for the yen.  

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

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Bernanke Brings No Changes – EUR/USD Dips to New Lows

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 11:16 AM PST

The last FOMC Meeting of the year resulted in no changes to policy, as expected. The same growth expectations, worries about the global slowdown and pledge about rates remained, with minor changes in the wording. 

EUR/USD dipped to new lows under 1.3050 after the statement was released. It was waiting patiently for the event and as no dollar-weakening measures were announced, new low ground is tested.

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Lose-Lose Situation for the Euro

Posted: 13 Dec 2011 10:05 AM PST

If the ECB continues its policy regarding bond buying, the euro is set to fall. If it launches QE, it will likely follow the path of the greenback after QE2, with one specific euro cross set to gain.

Christopher Vecchio of DailyFX analyzes the current situation of the euro, the bright side for the pound in the aftermath of the EU Summit, the low likelihood of more US QE, how the Canadian dollar will react to rising tensions around Iran, and more in the interview below.

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