Apr 30, 2010

FX Path

FX Path


Webinar - My Daily Analysis: Finding High-Probability Trading Setups

Posted: 30 Apr 2010 08:53 AM PDT

I will be holding my monthly webinar here on FXstreet.com next week that is open to all. It is entitled "My Daily Analysis: Finding High-Probability Trading Setups" and will be held on Wednesday, May 5, 2010 at 15:00 GMT (11:00 AM U.S. Eastern Time). In this monthly webinar, I will show my current analysis using live chart examples that will highlight potential trading opportunities.

Here is the description of this webinar: Through a wealth of current chart examples, find out the specific approach I take when performing daily currency analysis and how I use my analysis to identify high-probability trading setups based upon the prevailing trend conditions and key support/resistance levels. Learn about entry and exit setups as well as risk management techniques.

For more information and to pre-register for this free webinar, please click on the following link: http://www.fxstreet.com/live/sessions/session.aspx?id=747563fa-1751-4dc0-ba87-73660e677cb2. Hope to see everyone there!

James Chen, CTA, CMT

* For information on my DVD set, High-Probability Trend Following in the Forex Market, please click here.
* For information on my book,
Essentials of Foreign Exchange Trading (Wiley), please click here.
* For information on my new book, Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets (Wiley), please click here.


Our Inflationary Depression


 
VisionVictory just posted a must see video discussing how the U.S. is currently in an inflationary depression: http://inflation.us/videos.html

Please watch immediately and continue to spread the word about NIA!


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Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – April 30 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – April 30 2010


Forex Daily Outlook – April 30 2010

Posted: 29 Apr 2010 02:00 PM PDT


Moderate changes in the major indexes are foreseen in the U.S. and European markets. The GDP and Employment Cost Index in the U.S. open today’s report. Let’s see what awaits us today.

In the US, Advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the earliest GDP release, measuring the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy, giving us a glimpse into the state of the U.S. economy, is expected to drop from 5.6% to 3.4% while the Advance GDP Price Index, measuring annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP is expected to rise from 0.5% to 0.9% and might increase interest rates.

Later in the US, Employment Cost Index released quarterly, show a small expected increase form 0.5% to 0.6% in labor costs indicating consumer inflation.

More from the US, Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, measuring the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area, is expected a welcome rise of 1.2 points from 58.8 to 60 points indicating a healthy expansion in the market and Federal Reserve Governor Elizabeth Duke delivers a speech titled “Woman and Money: Challenging the Myths” at the Consumer Credit Counseling Services of, in Philadelphia This could affect key interest rates.

Finally in the US, Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is expected to go up from 69.5 points to 71.2 points and their Inflation Expectations would probably remain around 2.9%.

In Canada, Gross Domestic Product, released monthly, measuring the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services is expected to drop from 0.6% to 0.5%.

Although Raw Materials Price Index is expected to edge up from 0.4% to 0.9% an indicator of consumer inflation.

More in Canada, Industrial Product Price Index for domestic products, is anticipated a hopeful rise 0.2%, from 0.0% to 0.2%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

In Europe, Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate based on, Eurostat energy prices and EU member states is expected to remain 1.4%. And Unemployment rate is also stable and expected stay 10%.

Also in Europe, Italian Preliminary Consumer Price Index released monthly is expecting a drop from 0.3% to 0.2% a negligible impact on the Euro.

More from Italy, Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate is expected to rise from 8.5% to 8.6%.

In Switzerland, KOF Economic Barometer measuring the level of a composite index based on 12 economic indicators is foreseen a rise from 1.93 points to 2 points. Due to its predictive nature it can make a favorable impact on the Swiss market.

More from Switzerland, Philipp Hildebrand Governing Board Chairman of the Swiss National Bank speaks at he General Meeting of Shareholders, in Bern could affect the local currency and short term interest rates.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs' latest analysis.

In Australia, Private Sector Credit measuring the change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses is expected to remain 0.4 %.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Japan, Average Cash Earnings, released monthly measuring the total value of employment income is expected to rise from -0.6% to -0.2% which is encouraging news for the market activity.

More from Japan, Monetary Policy Statement, from the Bank Of Japan (BOJ) and a press conference planned to occur, are likely to reveal its monetary policy and impact the currency. The Overnight Call Rate from BOJ concerning interest rate for financial institutions is foreseen to remain 0.10% and the Outlook Report fro the BOJ will provide insight on the bank’s view of economic conditions and inflation which will impact the Japanese market.

Finally in Japan, Housing Starts concerning new residential buildings that began construction is expected a rise from -9.3% to -5.6%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

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Link to ForexLive

EXTRA EXTRA, read all about it!!!

Posted:

Blimey that's a blast from the past.  Where did that come from?  For our huge foreign following that's a cry shouted by newspaper sellers over here (UK) back in the day. EUR/USD at 1.3312 having been as high as 1.3319.  Next batch of stops mentioned through 1.3335 and then there are supposed ...

ECB Nowotny: Can’t Compare Portugal’s Situation To Greece’s

Posted:

VIENNA (MNI) - The fiscal troubles Greece is currently in aren't comparable to those facing Portugal, European Central Bank Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said Friday. Speaking at the Austrian National Bank, which he heads, Nowotny said, "When one looks ...

Probable eurogroup meeting of finance ministers this weekend on Greece – Lagarde

Posted:

Notihng like a good old meeting.  Elsewhere EUR/USD has tripped aforementioned stops through 1.3305 finally and we're up at 1.3315.  EUR/JPY stops just above 125.30 tripped also and we're up at 125.50. Lilac, bless her little cotton socks tells me Sean overnight mentioned sell orders in EUR/JPY up at 125.70 thru to 126.00

BOJ’s Shirakawa: No need for further easing now

Posted:

Japan economy taking steady steps towards end of deflation Wants to help private banks' own intiatives with new growth steps. Will talk with banks to formulate new steps Does not have quantitative target for new measures Effects of low interest rates are strengthening.  Will help autonomous domestic demand recovery ahead  No preset idea on ...

EBRD Head Warns Against Banks Absorbing Costs Of Greek Rescue

Posted:

BERLIN (MNI) - The president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Thomas Mirow, warned Friday against making banks shoulder part of the aid for Greece because this would weaken them again. "Therefore a bailout that would include ...

China banking chief says sovereign debt worries are continuing to grow in western countries

Posted:

Hard to argue with that little pearl of wisdom.  Other nuggets On the domestic front;  increasingly difficult to manage country's inflationary pressures Country's banks facing more uncertainties Mounting risk in property sector, local government financing

SNB Hildebrand: Some EMU State Public Finance Pose A Big Risk

Posted:

FRANKFURT (MNI) - Worrisome public finances in some Eurozone countries pose a risk to Switzerland's overall positive outlook and keep the central bank poised to prevent an excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro, Swiss National Bank President Philipp Hildebrand said Friday. ...

USD/JPY touch firmer, underpinned by EUR/JPY buying. Sell orders, stops noted

Posted:

USD/JPY up at 94.15 from early 94.00, garnering underpinning from decent buying of the EUR/JPY cross this morning.  The cross is up at 125.15 from early 124.60.  Talk sell orders now 94.20 through to 94.40, with stops just above there.

Well its month end once again…..

Posted:

And with that comes month end flows. Here's what hearing so far. Talk fix demand for aussie, sterling, euro. Rumour euro demand could be to the tune of 4 bln.  This would not  necessarily be contained to EUR/USD and figure could ofcourse be exaggerated.  But that's what is out there.  EUR/USD  presently at 1.3293, slightly down from ...

ECB: E50.043 Bln Covered Bond Purchases Settled Apr 29

Posted:

FRANKFURT (MNI) - The European Central Bank said Friday that a total of E50.043 billion Eurosystem covered bond purchases had settled as of April 29. As of April 28, settled acquisitions had totaled E49.646 billion, the ECB said Thursday. The ...

Irish debt agency NIMA official: In comfortable funding position, can easily skip a monthly auction without any worries

Posted:

Wouldn't cause us any problem to skip a couple of months of bond auctions Another little bit of encouraging news. EDIT:   EUR/USD at new session high 1.3299. Talk of more stops through 1.3305.

France market watchdog head tells radio thinks EU Greek plan to be unveiled tonight or over weekend

Posted:

EUR/USD makes new session high 1.3274. Says Greece will not default.  Speculators will lose out. Talk that China has been buyer of EUR/USD in recent trade.  Middle Eastern names also seen buying. We've tripped stops through 1.3280 and been to 1.3291 so far.

Portugal main opposition party leader: Will guarantee financial stability, back austerity measures in parliament

Posted:

"Very committed" to Portugal's political stability, in no hurry to get to power Proposed extra measures to PM that would cut 2010 budget gap to 7.3%/GDP vs 8.3% goal "Realistically" optimistic about pact with govt on extra measures in coming weeks

French March producer prices +0.6% m/m

Posted:

Exactly as expected.  EUR/USD touch firmer, but sell orders at 1.3270/80 still capping topside so far.

Barclays posts 29% rise in profit on investment bank

Posted:

Nice numbers from Barclays.  Won't have done sterling's cause any harm.  Cable up at 1.5375. EDIT:  Hedge fund notable buyer of cable this morning.

German DIHK industry assn leader: Weaker euro due to Greece “not a huge problem” for German industry

Posted:

Slow start in Europe.  EUR/USD at 1.3253 hardly changed from 2 hours ago.

Spain EconMin: Spain will not have to ask for help

Posted:

Spain's Economy Minister Salgado says Spanish debt is under control and Spain will not have to ask for help like Greece. Salgado told Spanish newspaper Cinco Dias that government's plans to reduce the budget deficit are in full flow and will achieve budget targets, adding that government spending should be even ...

Cameron saves best for last

Posted:

David Cameron gave his most assured performance in the final tv debate.  Bookies still favour hung parliament though. Latest Ladbrokes odds below Coservatives overall majority 11/8.  Labour overall majority 20/1. Lib Dems overall majority 25/1. No overall majority/hung parliament 4/6 Cable meanwhile sits at 1.5325, effectively where it closed out Thursday in North America.

EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Forecasts, April 30

Posted:

...

EUR/USD eeks out some very marginal gains in Asia

Posted:

EUR/USD up at 1.3250 having closed out down around 1.3230 in North America Thursday. Trade overnight in Asia hasn't been terribly exciting with pairing confined to 1.3226-1.3265 range. Pairing underpinned by reports Greece has agreed outline of euros 24 bln budget consolidation package, designed to reduce budget deficit by 10-11% of GDP ...