Apr 21, 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – April 21st 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – April 21st 2010


Forex Daily Outlook – April 21st 2010

Posted: 20 Apr 2010 12:40 PM PDT


After an exciting day and before another busy one, today’s calendar is rather light. British employment figures will stand out. Let’s see what’s up for today.

The Euro received good figures and managed to stabilize despite Greek troubles. No data is due today from Europe, but Greek news can always appear.
Australia’s MI Leading Index is expected to edge up once again, similar to last month’s 0.2% rise. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is bound by the 0.9327 resistance line.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast.

In Britain,Claimant Count Change, which represents the number of unemployed people, is predicted to drop by 5,700, less than last month’s impressing drop of 32,300. This is a fresh figure – from March.

The unemployment rate for February, is the last report before the British elections. It’s predicted to remain at 7.8% for a fourth month in a row. Another related figure is the Average Earnings Index which will probably rise by 2.5%, stronger than last month’s 0.9% rise.

At the same time, 8:30 GMT, the British MPC Meeting Minutes will be released. This time, at the last release before the elections, no surprise is expected from the protocols.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast.

The Canadian dollar, which got a boost from the rate decision, will receive the Wholesale Sales figure today. After a rise of 3% last month, it’s predicted to rise by 1%.

For more on USD/CAD, read the Canadian dollar forecast.

Ben Bernanke will make another public appearance. He’ll speak at the event that will show the new $100 bill. Also in the US – Crude Oil Inventories are expected to rise by 0.1 million barrels.

Japan closes the day with its Trade Balance. A rise from 0.47 trillion to 0.66 trillion yen is expected in the deficit.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

Currensee Gets Funding from Financial Services Firm

Posted: 20 Apr 2010 07:41 AM PDT


I’ve already reported about Currensee’s Round B funding. It now announces the last piece of this funding – Vernon & Park Capital, a financial services firm, has added its own $825,000 to this round.

This new investor is closer to the forex markets than previous investos. Jim Ginsburg, is a managing partner at Vernon & Park Capital and a former currency futures trader at CME Group. This extra money, completing a $8.8 billion round for Currensee, will mostly go towards the development of the Trade Leaders program.

Here’s the full press release:

Currensee Announces New Investor and Raises Series B Total to $8.8 Million

New funding from specialized financial services investor, Vernon & Park Capital

Boston, MA – April 20, 2010 – Currensee Inc., the first Forex trading social network that connects traders from around the world based on real-time trades, today announced additional funding, bringing its total Series B financing to $8.8 Million. The new investment comes from Vernon & Park Capital L.P., a private equity firm specializing in the financial markets sector.

"We are excited to have Vernon & Park Capital as an investor," said Dave Lemont CEO Currensee. "They have an impressive track record and are very experienced with financial market-related investments. Their involvement with Currensee will be important as we plan for growth in the Forex futures and options markets over time. We look forward to harnessing the power of their expertise and extensive network of significant industry partners as we grow the Currensee business."

Currensee announced their Series B round in February, which was led by North Bridge Venture Partners and Egan Managed Capital. With the additional Series B financing from Vernon & Park Capital, Currensee will accelerate expansion in the UK, Europe, and Asia, where Forex trading continues to grow at a rapid pace. The financing will also fuel development of Currensee Market Watch™, the first real-time social sentiment indicator that shows what traders are doing based on actual trades, and will include advanced data options, such as real-time market depth, and new customization features. In addition, the funding will drive the Currensee Trade Leaders ™ program, the first Forex social trade automation service that allows traders to follow the most successful Trade Leaders in the Currensee platform and create their own Forex investment portfolios.

"Traders often seek help as they try to navigate the markets.  Currensee has developed a novel way for traders to develop their skills through online collaboration with other traders," said Jim Ginsburg, Managing Partner at Vernon & Park Capital and a former currency futures trader at CME Group. "With Currensee, Forex traders scale the learning curve more quickly and fulfill their needs for social interaction. Trading can be difficult and lonely. Currensee provides a winning service that addresses these issues for traders and there's little downside for Forex traders to join the service.  We are excited to share our expertise with the team as they build their financial services social network."

About Currensee
Currensee brings trust and transparency to retail Forex trading. The Currensee trading social network connects retail Forex traders from around the world so they can see each other's actual trades and share trading strategies in real-time to make more informed trade decisions. Currensee traders from over 70 countries have become members of the trading social network and linked their live brokerage accounts with one of the 100+ brokers supported by the platform. The unique Currensee Market Watch Social Indicators™ aggregate the wisdom of the network and deliver social trade data and a new way to look at the market. Currensee is funded by North Bridge Venture Partners, Egan Managed Capital and Vernon & Park Capital and is a member of the National Futures Association. For more information, visit us at www.currensee.com. Follow us on Facebook (www.facebook.com/currensee) and Twitter (www.twitter.com/currensee).

About Vernon & Park Capital

Vernon & Park Capital is a private equity firm that focuses on investments in the Financial Markets Sector. Since 2001, Vernon & Park and affiliated parties have combined industry expertise and experience with rigorous financial analysis to successfully deploy its investment capital in the Sector. Through its investment activities, Vernon & Park provides capital to its portfolio companies and utilizes its extensive network of industry contacts as a strategic resource to help those companies realize their full economic potential. Vernon & Park will consider investments in companies at any stage of development ranging from earlier-stage emerging growth companies to more mature businesses in the Financial Markets Sector. For more information, visit the website www.vernonpark.com

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Disclosure: I’m affiliated with Currensee.

Canadian Dollar Jumps – Road to Rate Hike Open

Posted: 20 Apr 2010 06:12 AM PDT


The Bank of Canada didn’t move the rates, but removed the comment regarding no rate hike till the end of Q2. A rate hike in the next meeting looks very probable. USD/CAD is below parity once again. Update on this strong currency.

While Mark Carney’s BOC left the main interest rate, the Overnight Rate, unchanged, it removed its own strains regarding a move on the rates. Here’s a quote from the statement, emphasis mine:

…the Bank also provided exceptional guidance on the likely path of its target rate. This unconventional policy provided considerable additional stimulus during a period of very weak economic conditions and major downside risks to the global and Canadian economies. With recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus.

I read this statement and see a rate hike at the next meeting. The statement explains that the conditions have improved, expressing optimism. In the past, leaving the commitment to keep rates low hurt the loonie. Now the opposite happens.

Later this week, the BOC will publish a more thorough report, BOC Monetary Policy Report, which will detail more about the economy. This publication is followed with a press conference with Mark Carney, the bank’s governor.

In this press conference, he’ll definitely be asked about the interest rate. Although he might give a detailed answer describing the pros and cons, his words will probably supply the necessary confirmation of a rate hike on June 1st, the next rate meeting that the bank holds.

Also this week, on Friday, two more Canadian figures will be published: consumer price index and retail sales. The first indicator, which is directly related to the interest rate, could also set the tone for the next decision. Both figures will rock the loonie towards the end of the week. A close under 1 is essential for further drops in USD/CAD.

USD/CAD back to parity

USD/CAD reacted quickly with a drop from 1.01 to parity, and continues south. USD/CAD parity was already reached recently, but the pair went back up on the greenback’s strength.

Below parity, the next line of support is 0.98, a support line during 2008. The next line is even stronger, 0.97. Reaching this line will also depend on another surge in oil prices.

Above, if the pair relaxes, the initial resistance line is 1.01, followed by the mighty resistance area of 1.02, the 2009 low and a significant line at all times, also this week.

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It's free.

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