Forex Crunch GBP/JPY – Another Attempt to Break Higher |
- GBP/JPY – Another Attempt to Break Higher
- See Who’s Winning in Forex – Trader Leaderboard
- Kiwi Drops on Retail Sales – Rate Hike Unlikely Soon
- Forex Daily Outlook – April 14th 2010
- It isn’t over – Greece will continue weighing on the Euro
| GBP/JPY – Another Attempt to Break Higher Posted: 14 Apr 2010 02:51 AM PDT
The Geppy is enjoying risk appetite and other elements to make another attempt to break higher. Will it make it? Update on the forces moving this cross. GBP/USD enjoyed the weekend gaps to jump over the strong resistance line against the dollar. After slipping back down to the critical level, it got a boost: British trade balance was much better than expected – 6.2 billion, the best in 6 months and far better than the previous month’s deficit. This helped the Pound settle safely above 1.5350, and begin climbing. GBP/USD is now struggling with 1.5440, in a second attempt to break this minor resistance line. A break of this barrier will also move GBP/JPY. On the other side of the cross, the Japanese Yen is retreating. It enjoyed hopes of a devaluation of the Chinese yuan, but that isn’t happening yet. What is happening in the markets is more optimism about global recovery, triggering the selling of “safe haven” currencies such as the yen. This risk appetite behavior is fueled not only by the optimism about the Greek crisis. The great report from Intel shows that the economic situation is improving. The move by the Singapore’s central bank, which strengthened its currency (USD/SGD) on economic recovery, also raised the optimism, and weakened the yen. Both moves sent GBP/JPY almost 100 pips higher to 144.40. It’s now making another attempt to break 145. The peak of 144.72 reached last week was the highest in two months, but the Geppy failed to move above 145. Another failure to break above 145 could lead the pair back down towards 140, and then towards 138, which was also a line of resistance – a crossroad for GBP/JPY. This line, 145, is exactly half way between the previous resistance line of 143 that held the pair lower, and 147, which is the next resistance line. Beyond 147, the cross will approach the round number of 150, which is a tough spot. This cross continues to be quite volatile. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| See Who’s Winning in Forex – Trader Leaderboard Posted: 13 Apr 2010 09:00 PM PDT
There are different estimations about the percentage of winners in forex trading. You can now see who is winning in forex trading – Currense launches a trader leaderboard for the forex industry – in real time! After a rather quiet month from Currensee, they now launched a great feature – users of their platform can see the top winning traders in trading. It includes not only the amount of pips, but also the risk factor. They introduce their Trader Authority Index algorithm for ranking traders. This launch is part of the future Trade Leaders program, in which winning traders can get rewarded for people following their trades. Here are more details about this launch, in the official press release: Currensee Debuts First Real-Time Trader Leaderboard for Forex Industry
Boston, MA – April 14, 2010 – Currensee (http://www.currensee.com), the first Forex trading social network that connects traders from around the world based on real-time trades, today debuted the Forex industry's first Trader Leaderboard that ranks top Forex traders based on both historical and real-time performance along with a proprietary performance authority and risk index. The new Leaderboard feature is available to all Currensee members, adding an unprecedented level of transparency through access to real-time performance data of the most successful traders in the network. "Launching the Trader Leaderboard is an exciting step for the Forex community and for Currensee, as we continue to bring trust and transparency to Forex trading," said Currensee CEO Dave Lemont (http://www.currensee.com/about-us/executive-team/dave-lemont). "Many people in our industry make claims about their performance, which are unrealistic and unsubstantiated. Our leaderboard changes all of that. Now, the top traders both in performance and risk are clearly highlighted for all our members to see." Lemont also sees the Trader Leaderboard as an important milestone as Currensee builds its Trade Leaders™ investment program (http://www.currensee.com/tradeleaders), which will launch this summer. He says, "Our goal is to give our members the ability to learn from the top traders in the network by putting the most accurate, real-time information right at their fingertips." The Trader Leaderboard ranking system will be a key element of the Currensee Trade Leaders investment program (http://www.currensee.com/tradeleaders), which will be launching later this year. The Leaderboard shows annual returns, historical and real-time performance along with risk scores for the top traders in the network. Traders are ranked against the Currensee Trader Authority Index™ (TAI), a proprietary algorithm that combines performance, risk and experience into a single index. The Leaderboard also contains a variety of filters and levers for traders to define the types of traders they are looking to connect with, along with ranges of risk, return and experience. In the coming months, Currensee will be announcing additional details on how traders can invest in the top traders in the Currensee social network through the Trade Leader program. In the meantime, the company is recruiting successful traders to be Trade Leaders. As Currensee Trade Leaders, experienced Forex traders can be compensated for successful trading without the tedious effort of recruiting customers, managing money and reporting results. The call for Trade Leaders was announced in January of this year and successful Forex traders are encouraged to submit for consideration at www.currensee.com/tradeleaders . Disclosure: I’m affiliated with Currensee. |
| Kiwi Drops on Retail Sales – Rate Hike Unlikely Soon Posted: 13 Apr 2010 04:06 PM PDT
NZD/USD usually trades in narrow ranges and is mostly affected by the greenback’s news. This time, local retail sales were really bad and sent the kiwi down – no rate hike coming soon… Retail sales in New Zealand were bad – they dropped by 0.6%, much worse than early expectations for a rise of 0.2%. Also last month’s figure was revised to the downside to 0.7%. Core retail sales disappointed as well with a drop of 0.9 – early predictions saw a rise of 0.3%. This had its toll on NZD/USD: Both figures, that touch consumers directly show that the public in New Zealand is still skeptic and cautious. These drops in consuming mean less inflation, and no need for a rate hike. Canada could precede New Zealand with a rate hike. New Zealand will not follow Australia so fast. NZD/USD, usually a cautious currency pair, made a move – it fell from 0.7140 to 0.7085 and continues dropping. This comes during the Sydney session, when there aren’t many traders out there. When the Tokyo session begins, the fall could be stronger. NZD/USD technical analysis The kiwi is supported by the 0.70 line, which is a round number and also served as a support line not long ago. The next support line is quite strong – 0.68 stopped the pair from dropping lower during February. The last time that it was weaker was in September, more than 7 months ago. If the US dollar weakens significantly, NZD/USD can test a strong resistance line at 0.72, a line it didn’t breach since mid-January. By the way, I haven’t written an NZD/USD weekly forecast in quite some time. Is there interest in this pair? Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Forex Daily Outlook – April 14th 2010 Posted: 13 Apr 2010 03:24 PM PDT
A busy day expects forex traders, especially with US figures. Retail sales and consumer prices will be in the limelight. Let’s see what’s up for today. EUR/USD continues to trade above the gap. While this is a sign of strength, the resolution to the Greek crisis is not fully realized, and the implications to the other countries could still weigh on the Euro. OK, let’s start the review: Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment starts the day. After a strong start to the week, the Aussie is struggling again. For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In Japan, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will speak at a conference in Tokyo, and he can shake the Yen – possibly sending it lower. European Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.2% following a rise of 1.7% last month. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs‘ latest analysis. Many American figures American retail sales are expected to make a move forward: a rise of 1.1% will probably follow last month’s 0.3% rise. Core retail sales, which are no less important, are expected to rise by 0.5%, less than last month’s rise. At the same time, consumer prices are predicted to provide another month of boredom – a rise of 0.1% is expected to follow last month’s stagnation. Core CPI will probably rise by 0.1%, the same as last month. Later in the US, Business Inventories are predicted to rise by 0.3% after being unchanged last month. At the same time, 14:00 GMT, Ben Bernanke will begin his testimony in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. If he makes some remarks about the economy in general, or the Chinese yuan, the markets will move. Later in the US, the Beige Book will give an overview of the American economy, showing us what the Federal Reserve sees. Also note a speech by FOMC member Sandra Pianalto. Just before the day ends, British Nationwide Consumer Confidence, a figure delayed from last week, is predicted to edge up from 80 to 81 points. For more on the British Pound, read the GBP/USD forecast. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| It isn’t over – Greece will continue weighing on the Euro Posted: 13 Apr 2010 05:31 AM PDT
The details of the bailout plan sent the Euro far up on a weekend gap. While the gap isn’t filled, the troubles are far from over, and a new fall can happen anytime. 30 billion euros from the European Union in safety net money were promised to Greece just before the markets opened. This caused dramatic weekend gaps that sent EUR/USD to 1.3690. Although the pair calmed down since then, the Euro is still far from Friday’s closing price of 1.35. But caution should accompany this optimism. As Casey Stubbs states, Greece is a currency killer, and the positive attitude from the zone’s biggest countries also mean that Greek problems are European problems, in every way. This applies to the next problematic countries:
I agree with Casey’ analysis and conclusion that the long-term trend for the Euro is still down. The implementation of the plan also shows there lots of room for caution. The first bond auction was successful, but Greece had to pay a high yield. The road to recovery in Greece is still long, and the meaning of this plan is that other weak countries will continue leaning on the stronger countries. This might be good for political unity, but not for the currency. The first support line is the gap – EUR/USD is supported at 1.35 – Friday’s close. This is an important line to watch. 1.3380 also provides support, but more minor. The ultimate support line is at 1.3267, the 2010 low. A rise of EUR/USD will meet initial resistance at 1.3692, and stronger resistance at 1.3780. The most important resistance line appears at 1.3850, a place that the pair failed to break and collapsed since then. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
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