Apr 2, 2010

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Gold’s In A Potentially Explosive Situation

Posted: 02 Apr 2010 03:21 AM PDT

Lately we’ve been writing about the importance of the bond market. Want a hint if we will have hyperinflation? Follow the bond market. Japan and the US in the 1930s didn’t have hyperinflation because there were enough domestic savings to finance the expansion of the government. Rather than argue about inflation/deflation, people should be talking about the bond market.

Sovereign governments through their bailouts, stimulus packages and support, have basically become the credit markets. … [visit site to read more]


“Not A Single New Job Has Been Created.” True Or False?

Posted: 02 Apr 2010 01:21 AM PDT

“Not a single new job has been created”
The quote above is from a grown man considered expert enough to be a guest on financial TV. I ran to write it down; so I think it is accurate. As I recall, he made the comment to bring perspective to the jobs discussion.

Of course, the quotation is wildly inaccurate and misleading to the casual viewer who wouldn’t have guessed he was probably referring to net job growth, meaning that job losses have exceeded job gains over these past two years. … [visit site to read more]

Video: GM Auto Sales Soar In March

Posted: 02 Apr 2010 01:00 AM PDT

General Motor sales spiked higher by 20.6% in March. The automaker’s four remaining brands surged by 43% from a year earlier. … [visit site to read more]

Global Bull Stock Market Rally Hits 18-Month High

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 11:21 PM PDT

The MSCI World Stock Market Index reached an 18-month high Thursday of 1,212.14, the highest closing index level since late September 2008. Compared to a year ago, world stock markets have risen by more than 48%.

Related story:

(Reuters) - “Factories in the United States, Europe and Asia cranked up production last month, suggesting recovery from a deep recession was taking root in economies around the globe. The U.S. manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than five … [visit site to read more]

Crude Oil And Gold Surge Higher, All Eyes On US Jobs Report

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 11:17 PM PDT

Commodities have shot higher amid a broad rally in risk-related assets, sending oil to the $85 figure while pushing gold and silver through major technical resistance. All eyes are now focused on the US jobs report with expectations calling for the best outcome in three years.
Commodities - Energy
Crude Surges Higher to $85 But Will Bulls Retain Momentum?
Crude Oil (WTI)       $84.87       +$1.11       +1.33%
Prices are … [visit site to read more]

ETFs Reveal The One True Religion

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 11:00 PM PDT

In recent years, ETFs have been the ultimate growth industry. In 2009 more than 120 new products hit the market, and the first quarter of 2010 saw nearly 60 new launches. While some of these new products are "plain vanilla" funds competing directly with existing ETFs, the bulk of expansion in the space has been attributable to innovation, not duplication. The universe of accessible asset classes has been expanding while the granularity of exposure available has also surged. Hedge fund … [visit site to read more]

More Normal Earnings Picture For The S&P 500 Index

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 09:13 PM PDT

S&P has still not finalized 2009 Q4 earnings, but 99% of companies have reported, and I want to get the most current earnings picture out there, so I have updated our database to TMT earnings as of Q4 2009. This causes the horrible Q4 2008 numbers to drop out of the equation and gives us a more realistic look at valuations.

The chart below shows the S&P 500 in relation to its normal P/E range (10 to 20). The colored arrows on the right help to clarify where the cardinal points of the … [visit site to read more]

Video: The Week Ahead

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 09:00 PM PDT

The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading: Signs Of Global Recovery Pressure The US Dollar

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 08:13 PM PDT

The U.S. Dollar traded lower against most major currencies as traders took advantage of thin market conditions ahead of Friday’s key U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Early in the session the Dollar rose slightly following a decline in U.S. Weekly Initial Claims before being overcome by aggressive buying of higher yielding assets. Signs that the global economy may be recovering faster than previously thought helped to pressure the Dollar led by strong rallies in the British Pound and Canadian … [visit site to read more]

US PMI Shows Increasing Strength In Manufacturing

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 08:08 PM PDT

The US ISM PMI came in at 59.6, beating estimates of 57 (ranging from 54 to 59), and February’s 56.5 and showing further strengthening of the US manufacturing sector. A level over 50 indicates expansion. Much of the strength in the ISM numbers has been explained away by stimulus spending and inventory cycle, and the impulse from these drivers is probably still present. But there are some emerging signs that there could be glimmers of underlying strength starting to take hold too.

The … [visit site to read more]

Don’t Wait To Refinance Your Mortgage

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 08:01 PM PDT

If you are in a position to refinance your mortgage, I would not wait. Why?

The largest buy program in the history of the U.S. mortgage market just ended Wednesday. That program, part of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, purchased $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities. In the process, the Fed brought mortgage rates down somewhere in the vicinity of .50% to a full 1% from where they would likely otherwise be.

Although selected market participants (banks and money … [visit site to read more]

Four Ways To Go Short, Part 2 – Options And Inverse ETFs

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 07:01 PM PDT

In the second part of the shorting options series, we look at two more ways of going short - options and inverse ETFs - and discuss the basic ways and professional tip of dealing with time and structural decay.

Adam Lass is on vacation this week. So today we’ll continue the discussion on “four ways to go short,” taking a look at options trading and inverse Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). If you missed it, catch up and read Four Ways to Go Short, Part I.

To be clear, there are a lot more … [visit site to read more]

News That’s Real

Posted: 01 Apr 2010 06:15 PM PDT

For those who haven’t yet discovered The Onion, the satirical news organization, you’ve really been missing out. More often than not, their stories, like the one featured below, do a better job describing reality than many of the reports we get from the mainstream media.

“Rich Guy Feeling Left Out Of Recession”
Chandler can only imagine what it would be like to feel camaraderie with the thousands who lost everything and had to start from scratch.
WILTON, CT—Michael Chandler looks out the … [visit site to read more]

China Manufacturing Data Could Presage A Rising Yuan

Posted: 31 Mar 2010 10:25 PM PDT

Manufacturing activity in China and much of Asia continued to expand in March, underscoring the region’s role as a driving force in the global economic recovery.

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 55.1 from 52 in February, according to Li & Fung Group, a Hong Kong-based company that releases data for the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.  It marked the 13th straight month the index showed expansion and was in line with the median … [visit site to read more]
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