Jan 7, 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – January 7th 2010

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – January 7th 2010

Forex Daily Outlook – January 7th 2010

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 02:00 PM PST


The focus shifts to Britain today that receives a rate decision. There are lots of other important events worldwide. Let’s see what’s up today:

Anticipation towards the Non-Farm Payrolls prevents significant breakouts. The markets are tense towards the release on Friday.

Australia starts the day with two major releases: Retail Sales are predicted to rise by 0.4% after a similar rise last month. At the same time, the deficit in the Trade Balance is expected to drop from 2.38 to 1.8 billion.

Both Australian figures are expected to push the Aussie even higher, continuing the trend of a strong week. For technical levels, check out the AUD/USD forecast.

For those of you trading the Swissy, CPI is expected to move the pair. It’s predicted to rise by 0.1% this time.

European Retail Sales are predicted to remain unchanged. This prediction is based on German and French numbers which were already released, but surprises can always happen.

Later in Europe, Consumer Confidence is expected to tick up to -16, still in the negative zone. German Factory Orders will probably be on the rise again, after a disappointing drop last month.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast. Also check out Casey Stubbs’ updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The Bank of England is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged. As usual, Mervyn King’s central bank is expected to leave the Official Bank Rate at the historic low of 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program, also known as the  Asset Purchase Facility, isn’t expected to be enlarged from the current scale of 200 billion.

The focus on this decision will be the MPC Rate Statement, as it may lay out the policy for 2010, a year in which Brits go to the polls. For more on GBP/USD, read the British Pound forecast.

Weekly Unemployment Claims in the US have surprised in recent weeks, improving to a 17-month low last week. This is the last hint towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Current expectations are for a rise in jobless claims: from 432,000 to 449,000.

In Canada, also awaiting employment numbers, Ivey PMI is expected to rock the USD/CAD. This important indicator is predicted to drop this time: from 55.9 to 52.2 points.

Read more on USD/CAD in the Canadian dollar forecast.

That’s it for a busy Thursday. Happy forex trading!

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AUD/USD Makes a Big Comeback – An Update and a Look Forward

Posted: 06 Jan 2010 08:45 AM PST


The Aussie is getting back to normal, making kangaroo leaps on good data and facing some challenging resistance lines. Here’s an update on the high-yielding Aussie, and a look forward towards the next technical hurdles for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD leaps like a Kangaroo

The Australian dollar is doing well this week. It confirmed the break above 0.8950 and continued higher. The Aussie enjoyed a strong rise in Building Approvals. After last month’s disappointment – a unexpected drop of 1.8%, they rose by 5.9%.

Not only did this rise erase all of last month’s drop and more, the scale of the rise was double the early expectations. A rise of 3.1% was expected in this key Australian figure, and the result helped the Aussie.

This wasn’t the only reason for the Aussie’s rise. After being beaten in December by the mighty dollar, this carry-trade currency is making a comeback also on the dollar’s weakness this week. The dollar is sold almost everywhere, as traders are cautious towards the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday.

AUD/USD enjoys this dollar-weakness very much. Currently at 0.9200, the pair is very close to the 0.9210 resistance line. If this line is broken, the road to 0.9322 is paved. 0.9322 was a resistance line several times in the fall of 2009. This is already a huge resistance line. More technical lines are mentioned in the AUD/USD forecast.

Apart from the aforementioned NFP, two major releases are still awaited in Australia: Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.4%, higher than last month, and the Trade Balance is expected to show a smaller deficit than last month. If these expectations are met, the Aussie could break the immediate resistance line of 0.9210.

The bullish sentiment receives some back wind…

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