Jan 11, 2010

Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions

Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions

Forex Trading Commentary: Markets Shrug Off Weak NFP And Continues To Buy Risk

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 03:23 AM PST

Markets seem to have shrugged off the disappointing US non-farm payrolls data, with equity and commodity prices rallying as yields slipped. Friday closed with the S&P up 0.3% and yield curve steepened further, with US 2yrs rates dropping 5bp. Comments from Fed’s Bullard today gave risky assets a boost, as he noted major G10 economies monetary policies were to stay exceptionally loose for some time, while liquidity programs would not pose a risk to price stability. In this environment of … [visit site to read more]


Latest US Unemployment Numbers Show There’s No Easy Way Out Of A “Jobless Recovery”

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 03:01 AM PST

The unemployment numbers reported by the Labor Department Friday are proof that despite recent optimism about the job market, the economy is still trudging through a jobless recovery. And it doesn’t look like the labor picture will improve anytime soon, either.

Employers unexpectedly shed 85,000 jobs in December, displaying a lack of confidence in the economic recovery and leaving the “official” unemployment rate at 10%.

However, the real rate of unemployment — which includes part- time … [visit site to read more]

Indian Stock Market: Markets Succumb To Earnings Anxiety

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 02:55 AM PST

After a reasonably strong start today, the Indian markets succumbed to investor anxiety about the upcoming earnings season. As the session progressed, heightened profit booking pressure on the heavyweights drew the indices closer to the dotted line. By the final hour, the selling activity pushed the BSE Sensex into the red. While the BSE Sensex closed lower by around 14 points, the NSE Nifty remained flattish (gains of around 5 points). The BSE Midcap and BSE Smallcap indices, however, managed … [visit site to read more]

Critical Support Level For TLT (Treasury Bond ETF)

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 02:01 AM PST

There is a critical support level here on the 20+ Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) - as seen on both the weekly and daily chart.

Let’s take a quick look at this level, and what could happen if support holds… or fails.

The weekly chart shows us that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2006 low to the 2008 high is $88.88 - which was the near the recent low in price this week ($88.76).

Not only is this level important from a “Fibonacci” point of view, but this level has been a … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading Review For 11 January

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 01:56 AM PST

USD Dollar (USD)

The Dollar posted its biggest weekly loss since November versus the major currencies as an unexpected drop in jobs boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve may extend stimulus measures. The Nonfarm Payrolls came out -85K versus -3K expected. The Unemployment rate came out better than expected with 10%. Wall Street reacted with modest gains after the jobs data. Dow Jones rose by 0.11% and NASDAQ appreciated by 0.74%. Crude oil rose and closed at 82.89$ a barrel. Gold … [visit site to read more]

EEM Vs. VWO: Where’s The Disconnect?

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 01:56 AM PST

The past year was a stellar one for almost all global equity markets, but it was the world's emerging economies that truly stole the show. As investors regained their appetite for risk, those markets that have historically been deemed to be the most risky surged. But the impressive gains for emerging markets in 2009 weren't solely attributable to investor perceptions: developing economies have clearly taken the lead in the global recovery efforts, bouncing back from the recent recession and … [visit site to read more]

Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) Bests Gold ETF (GLD) Performance - By A Wide Margin

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 01:01 AM PST

Since Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) started trading on Nov. 11, 2009, the ETF has outperformed the return of the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) in impressive fashion.

GDXJ 10.9%
GLD 1.6%

As outlined in this background article GDXJ is comprised of smaller, more speculative gold miners and explorers, so the volatility is much more substantial the changes in the price of gold itself.

With Friday’s jobs data sending the dollar lower and gold higher given the … [visit site to read more]

Video: China’s Auto Industry Surpasses U.S. Market

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 01:00 AM PST

GM began producing lithium-ion battery packs for the company’s Chevrolet Volt electric vehicle. … [visit site to read more]

The 2009 Inflation-Deflation Timer Model Update

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 12:30 AM PST

As I went through the year-end discussions over the holiday season, it struck me that the inflation-deflation question remains stuck in a lot of peoples' minds. As examples, Zero Hedge pointed out this paper by Brait Capital Management, and recent instances of the inflation vs. deflation debates continue here and here.

In the meantime, my Inflation-Deflation Timer model has remained at an inflation reading since July 2009. The table below shows the returns of the Inflation-Deflation Timer … [visit site to read more]

Why Peak Oil Is Peak Idiocy: Endless Oil

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 12:01 AM PST

BUSINESS WEEK — Consumer demand, technology, and global politics are shifting in a way that could spell a future of oil abundance, not of catastrophic dearth. As Leonardo Maugeri, a senior executive at Italian oil major ENI, puts it: “There will be enough oil for at least 100 years.”
Many analysts and industry executives have little doubt that there’s plenty of oil in the ground. “Only about 32% of the oil [in reserves] is produced,” says Val Brock, Shell’s head of business … [visit site to read more]

Agribusiness ETFs Head-To-Head: MOO Vs. PAGG

Posted: 11 Jan 2010 12:00 AM PST

After soaring to record highs in early 2008, many agricultural products saw their prices fall sharply over the next 18 months. However, the outlook for the agribusiness sector has improved significantly, and many investors are increasingly bullish after a report of nearly 20% food price inflation in the world's most populous democracy, India. The legendary commodity investor Jim Rogers recently commented on the prospects of the farming industry, saying, "If you can tell me something else … [visit site to read more]

Economic, News And US Earnings Reports For The Week Of January 11 - 15

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 11:51 PM PST

Last Friday’s unemployment rate is still sitting at 10% with employers continuing to slash jobs. The reality is that even if the economy is going to fully recover itself, it will be a slow one at best.

This week, we are going to get a picture of December retail sales and December inflation via CPI and core CPI. In addition, we are going to get the details of the Fed’s Beige book and the December Industrial Production and January’s Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment.

On the earnings front, … [visit site to read more]

Tool To Help You Safely “Move Your Money” To A Local Bank

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 11:04 PM PST

We've previously posted about bank failures and how you can take measures to protect your deposits in coverage of a troubled banks list and of why you may want to close your money market account. Today, at Salon.com we came across an online campaign designed to help bank account holders find trustworthy local banking alternatives.
Dubbed the "Move Your Money" campaign, it provides one tool to consider when you decide which banks are best equipped to protect your money. According to … [visit site to read more]

US Inflation Pressures Heating Up, Again!

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 11:01 PM PST

The composite indicator that measures the trends in gold, crude oil, and yields on the 10 year Treasury will end the week in the extreme zone, and this should be a headwind for equities. Inflation pressures, whether real or perceived, are heating up.

See figure 1 a weekly chart of the S&P500 with the indicator in the lower panel.

The rally that began in March, 2009 has stalled every time this indicator has hit the extreme zone. These are shown by the trade signals in figure 1. … [visit site to read more]

The US Dollar Is Going To Demonstrate Real Strength At Gold’s Expense In The Short To Medium Term

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 11:01 PM PST

In my last column, my predictions for 2010 (or at least the first part of it) were that both the stock market and commodities are destined for a fall, and that the dollar is the only major asset primed for a significant rise. This generated such reader comments as …

“I believe commodities are the thing for 2010. The dollar continues to give ground. I say you are WRONG in your prediction.”

“… based on the US govt’s incredible spending, there is a likelihood that gold will be the … [visit site to read more]

CBOE Executive Vice Chairman Edward Tilly On CBOE’s Perspective On The Importance Of Short Selling

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 10:31 PM PST

In 2009, CBOE stepped up its already vigorous regulatory initiatives by working proactively with regulators and legislators to help shape regulatory reform. The year 2010 likely will hold more of the same.

In this installment, CBOE Executive Vice Chairman Edward Tilly discusses CBOE’s perspective on the importance of short sales for bona fide hedging activities of market … [visit site to read more]

One Of The Biggest Tech Shifts Of Our Lifetimes

Posted: 10 Jan 2010 10:01 PM PST

Does your company employ a vice president of electricity?

I doubt it. In fact, you probably have never heard of a vice president of electricity.

But imagine more than a century ago, anyone who wanted power had to generate his own. Businesses that needed to power their facilities hired vice presidents of electricity to run in-house electric dynamos, operate coal-burning plants, or tap into some hydroelectric source for their power needs.

This, of course, seems crazy by today’s … [visit site to read more]
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