Dec 19, 2009

Forex Crunch GBP/JPY – Popular with Action Loving Traders

Forex Crunch GBP/JPY – Popular with Action Loving Traders


GBP/JPY – Popular with Action Loving Traders

Posted: 19 Dec 2009 03:44 AM PST


GBP/JPY is the king of crosses. There are many reasons why it’s popular. Looking at the Geppy again, it looks like the popularity comes from specific traders,but they aren’t always on the winning side.

Looking over and over again at the social indicators at Currensee, I see the same picture over and over again: no matter what position is taken, long or short, the outcome is negative.

GBP-JPY

GBP/JPY is a popular cross due to a few reasons, one of them being the strong moves that it makes. In a post that I wrote a few months ago, I took a deep dive into the Geppy’s popularity.

The big range of pips that GBP/JPY does every day is attractive to traders that want fast and big profits. They see that the Geppy makes 100 pips to a certain direction while EUR/USD, USD/JPY and others move only 20 or 30 pips at the same time.

These moves catch their eyes and they want fast profits. They don’t always perform a serious technical analysis, nor manage their money correctly before riding this cross.

Too often, this ends in losses, as most hasty moves turn out. It’s possible to make profits with this pair, as any other, but I think that the character of traders that pick this one up is more of the gambling type than the serious trader type.

What do you think?

Forex Weekly Outlook – December 21-25

Posted: 19 Dec 2009 01:00 AM PST


After a wild week of raging dollar bulls, we have a short and rather calm week ahead. Before Christmas comes in, we have final GDP releases from the UK and the US, important housing figures from the US, and a few more notable events that will move the markets. Here’s the weekly outlook:

Ben Bernanke’s mixed message in the FOMC Statement will continue to shake the markets for quite some time. He managed to keep the markets balanced for a short period of 6 hours, before the bulls began to rage. OK, let’s start the review:

Monday, December 21st: Japanese Trade Balance is the first notable event of the week, and it will be followed by the BOJ Monthly Report.

In Canada, Retail Sales are predicted to rise at a more moderate pace than last month. The core figure is expected to follow. The Canadian dollar held strong against the greenback’s strength, with rising inflation numbers.

In New Zealand, Current Account will impact the kiwi – it’s expected to turn negative this time.

Tuesday, December 22nd: The GfK German Consumer Climate is expected to remain stable, while the Belgium NBB Business Climate is predicted to improve significantly. The ZEW survey was the first indicator to hit the Euro last week, and certainly not the last.

The British Current Account is expected to improve to a smaller deficit, and also the recession in Q3 is expected to be revised upwards to only 0.1% in the final release of British GDP.

American Final GDP isn’t expected to move from the second release. It’s predicted to show an annualized growth of 2.8% in Q3.

American Existing Home Sales are predicted to continue the leap that was reported last month and rise even more – to 6.31 million. This expansion will get a warm welcome.

New Zealand closes a day full of GDP release, with a rise of 0.4% in Q3 GDP, following a 0.1% growth rate in Q2.

Wednesday, December 23rd: British MPC Meeting Minutes will be of interest to cable traders. It will be interesting to see if one of the members supported the expansion of the QE program. Also in Britain, BBA Mortgage Approvals are expected.

Canadian monthly GDP is expected to rise by 0.3%, after a 0.4% rise last month. This is the first indicator of Q4 GDP.

In the US, Personal Spending will be of interest – it’s expected to rise by 0.6%. New Home Sales is the complementary release of Tuesday’s existing home sales, and it’s also expected to post a nice rise to 442K.

Japan closes the day with the BSI Manufacturing Index and the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from Friday morning’s meeting.

Thursday, December 24th: Most of the world is already on holiday on Christmas Eve, but important American figures are released.

Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 0.4% while Core Durable Goods Orders, no less important, are predicted to rise by 0.9%. Both figures have fallen last time.

Weekly Unemployment Claims are expected to drop to 471K, after rising too much last month.

Friday, December 25th: On Christmas day, only the Japanese are working. Household Spending is expected to rise, while the Tokyo Core CPI is expected to show continuing deflation. Japanese Unemployment Rate is expected to edge up to 5.2%.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages, which will mostly focus on the technical analysis, as there aren’t many fundamentals…

In the meantime, I’ll leave you with my article about Forex Binary Options, that caused interest, especially offline.

    Forex Links for the Weekend

    Posted: 18 Dec 2009 02:00 PM PST


    Here’s a nice bunch of interesting forex-related articles that I find interesting for the weekend. They are in a wide variety of subjects:

    • Adam Kritzer sees the direction of the dollar in the carry trade.
    • Kathy Lien takes a deep dive into this week’s market moving event – the FOMC Statement.
    • Michael Greenberg analyzes the NFA regulations and finds that they prefer money maker brokers over ECN/STP ones. Do they want to drive forex out of the US?
    • Casey Stubbs gives 5 beginners lessons for forex traders.
    • Eric deCarbonnel talks about an issue that usually overlooked – an expected food crisis in 2010 that will cause a financial Armageddon in deCarbonnel’s eyes.
    • Fransesc Riverola, CEO of FXStreet, brings an interview about which forex brokers are best.
    • James W explains why the EUR/GBP is a perfect pair for day traders.

    That’s it for now. Have a great weekend!

    Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee

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