Forex Crunch EUR/USD Forecast – December 28-31 |
- EUR/USD Forecast – December 28-31
- GBP/USD Forecast – December 28-31
- AUD/USD Forecast – December 28-31
- USD/CAD Forecast – December 28-31
| EUR/USD Forecast – December 28-31 Posted: 26 Dec 2009 06:06 AM PST
The Euro went even lower this week, and got used to a new range. The last week of 2009 doesn’t have many indicators, but German inflation numbers are still important with the Euro-zone’s deflation. Here’s an outlook for the upcoming week in Europe, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. EUR/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
In the past short Christmas week, the Euro moved mostly by the dollar’s numbers, enjoying a disappointing New Home Sales figure and falling again with better American figures. Let’s see what’s up in Euroland this week. The technical analysis will follow:
EUR/USD Technical Analysis EUR/USD traded lower, and went as low as 1.4217 before rising up to 1.4437 on thin Christmas trading. It closed at 1.4397. All in all, the range of 1.42 to 1.4444 characterized the trading. The support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. The support line of 1.42 is now stronger, as it was successfully tested this week. Looking below, 1.40 is an important psychological barrier and also served as a stepping stone for the pair on it’s way up. Further down, 1.3750 is a major line of support. It worked as a support and resistance line earlier. Strong news is necessary for this line to break. Looking up, 1.4444 that was a strong resistance line during the summer, returned to its position also now. 1.4480 is also notable as it served as support after EUR/USD broke 1.4444 to the upside. Further above, 1.4626 was a support line a few weeks ago, and is now a minor resistance line. Even higher, 1.48 was the bottom border of a previous range for a long time in recent months. I remain bearish on EUR/USD. As in the previous week, I think that the problems in the old continent continue to cause trouble for the Euro, as American indicators are already quite OK. The thin holiday volume probably means another week of range trading before a stronger week at the beginning of 2010. EUR/USD enjoys many good articles on the web, although some of the authors are holiday…
Further reading on Forex Crunch:
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| GBP/USD Forecast – December 28-31 Posted: 26 Dec 2009 06:02 AM PST
The British Pound continued falling this week, especially hurt by the final release of GDP. The upcoming holiday week contains very few indicators. Here’s an outlook for the events that will affect the Pound, and an updated technical analysis. GBP/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
The Quantitative Easing program that was eyed by many cable traders is probably finished, and won’t be renewed. The meeting minutes revealed that there was a consensus on leaving the program unchanged this time. The heavy government deficit is now eyed. Let’s start:
GBP/USD Technical Analysis GBP/USD fell below the 1.6110 to which it dipped last week, and went further down, below 1.60, closing the week at 1.5959. 1.60 is now a minor resistance line, being also a psychological line. Further above 1.6110 is another resistance line, also it’s less significant than earlier. The lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. The next line is somewhat stronger: 1.6260. Even higher, 1.65 is the next significant line, but it’s very far now. Looking down, 1.5720 is a very strong support line. GBP/USD bounced off this line before it began the big comeback. Even lower, 1.5350 is the next support line, but there’s a very slim chance that the Pound will dip below 1.5720 this week. I remain bearish on GBP/USD. Britain’s economy is still behind other economies, and with the current dollar strength, the direction continues to be down. Further reading on Forex Crunch:
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| AUD/USD Forecast – December 28-31 Posted: 26 Dec 2009 05:59 AM PST
The Aussie had another week of weakness, but didn’t lose too much eventually. The upcoming week contains only one indicator, so this week’s outlook will focus mainly on the technical analysis for AUD/USD. AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
The only indicator this week is Private Sector Credit. This monthly indicator disappointed by being unchanged last month. It’s predicted to rise by 0.1% this time. It’s published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Now let’s move to the technicals: AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie continued falling at the beginning of the week and bottomed at 0.8735. It later recovered and closed at 0.8840, above 0.88. 0.88 is the first support line, being a round number and a place that the Aussie paused on the way up. Further below, there’s the range of 0.8477 to 0.8520. The Aussie struggled to break 0.8477 and later didn’t fall below 0.8520. Looking up, 0.8950 is a major resistance line. It worked as a support line and a resistance line many times in the past year. Further above, 0.9090 is a minor resistance line, and so is 0.9210. Both served as support and resistance line recently, but they are now very weak. Support and resistance lines haven’t changed since last week’s outlook. Even higher, 0.9327 is already a major resistance line. It served as such 3 times during October and November. I continue being neutral on AUD/USD. Although Australia is doing great,with a high interest rate and a strong job market, this is only enough to hold the US dollar from making serious gains, not enough for a rise of the Aussie. Further reading on Forex Crunch:
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| USD/CAD Forecast – December 28-31 Posted: 26 Dec 2009 05:57 AM PST
The Canadian dollar continues to show strength. It held to the range and gained 180 pips this week against the greenback. No events are due in Canada in this thin-volume week, so the outlook is only technical time. USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:
Weaker-than-expected GDP didn’t hurt the loonie’s ride, nor did the modest retails sales release. Let’s examine the charts: USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD traded between 1.07 and 1.0447 in the past week, a lower range than the previous week. The range of 1.04 to 1.0750 continues to dominate this pair’s trading. The lines haven’t changed from last week’s outlook. Above 1.0750, 1.0850 was the previous peak and is a minor resistance line. Further above, 1.1130 is a very important resistance line, working as such more than once this year. Looking down below 1.04, 1.02 is the next support line. It was the year-to-date low, and probably won’t be challenged. Also parity, the ultimate support line, looks too far now. I am still neutral on USD/CAD The strength of the Canadian dollar is quite impressive, and there reasons for this. Strong inflation figures, great employment numbers and great housing figures. But a break downwards probably won’t happen this week. Further reading on Forex Crunch:
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