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• AUD/USD holding steady above 1.0500
• Anyone got any exciting holiday plans?
• BIS plays King Canute
• Venizelos: Speculation on Greek exit cancels all efforts
• Barrier talk…
• Germany’s Unemployment Rose Less Than Expected In July
• Italy June adj jobless 10.8%
• GERMANY DATA: July sa unemployment +7k m/m vs MNI….
• German July s.a jobless total +7k
• Moody’s: UK negative outlook reflects economic outlook
• Update: Some EMU,ECB Members Want Bank Licence For ESM; Press
• Italy’s Monti says sees light at end of tunnel
• Spanish June workday adjusted real retail sales fall -5.2% y/y
• JAPAN DATA: Japan’s Q2 GDP, which is due out on Aug..
• FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.9% m/m, +1.3% y/y; May: y/y.
• FRANCE DATA: 2Q sa housing starts -3.1% q/q; nsa y/y.
• French June consumer spending +0.1% m/m
• Some at Fed are urging pre-emptive stimulus
• SNB: Balance Sheet Grows by CHF89.0 Bln On Foreign Currency
• Some Eurozone,ECB Members Want To Give ESM Bank Licence;Press

AUD/USD holding steady above 1.0500 Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:55 AM PDT At least for the moment.. Funds were the early sellers, but some solid bids appeared in the 1.0500/05 which is keeping the focus on the topside for now. There’s also bids down at 1.0480/90 with some sell stops just below, but these don’t look threatened with the EUR/AUD  sitting just off all time lows around 1.1660 I’m hearing  talk of buy stops now sitting in the 1.0530/35 area, but these are mixed in with reported commercial offers possibly from the RBA and option related supply ahead of the 1.0550 barrier. I’d imagine there may be some stops just above the 1.0550 barrier, but there’s also some tech resistance from the  1.0556 high seen on March 27. AUD’s currently sitting around 1.0510

Anyone got any exciting holiday plans? Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:47 AM PDT Might as well be on holiday today

BIS plays King Canute Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:29 AM PDT Pushes back the tide of selling in EUR/USD which saw a session low of 1.2249 posted. We’ve recovered to 1.2265 at writing. Just when I thought we were headed to my 1.2200 poll objective.  Bummer, don’t they know I need to improve my credibility?

Venizelos: Speculation on Greek exit cancels all efforts Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:18 AM PDT Head of Pasok, and member of Greek coalition govt, Venizelos warns ongoing speculation on Greece leaving the euro is underminning efforts at reform. The official has stated “This cancels out all our efforts” adding “It doesn’t allow any serious state asset sales.” Pleeeez, get a grip man…..

Barrier talk… Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:12 AM PDT Hearing the following barriers  in the market … EUR/USD: 1.2400 AUD/USD 1.0550 (also a 1.0500 expiry today to be added to the earlier option expiry list) EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7875 GBP/USD: 1.5800 USD/CAD: 1.0000

Germany’s Unemployment Rose Less Than Expected In July Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:10 AM PDT SA Unemployment: +7k (pan-German), +11k (West), -4k (East) – FRANKFURT (MNI) – The upward trend in German unemployment continued in July, though more slowly than expected as declines in the east offset increases in the west, while the jobless rate was stable at a 21-year low, the Federal Labour Office reported on Tuesday. As a result of this month’s 7,000-person increase, the number of unemployed came to 2.888 million this month, leaving the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate at 6.8%, its lowest since 1991. The majority of analysts in a MNI poll had forecast a stronger climb in the number of job seekers this month. In unadjusted terms, the unemployment level climbed by 67,000 persons to 2.876 million, lifting the jobless rate 0.2 percentage point to 6.8%. Job vacancies fell by 7,000, adding to June’s 5,000 decline and suggesting that labour demand may have already peaked. Payroll jobs data, which lag by one month, rose by 26,000 in June after +34,000 in May. Employment as measured in International Labour Office terms had reached a new record high of 41.6 million in June, according to data released earlier today. With the jobless level up for the fourth time in five months, the labour market may be finally showing the delayed effects of the recent erosion seen in business activity and sentiment surveys. The latest PMI survey pointed to the sharpest fall in manufacturing jobs since early 2010, offsetting the further climb in services to leave overall private sector employment broadly unchanged this month. Hiring intentions across most major sectors also lost ground in July, with only retailers becoming more optimistic, while industry and construction fell further into negative territory, a European Commission report showed. Consumers’ jobless fears rose further, though at a much slower pace than June and remaining well below the long-run average. The International Monetary Fund forecast an average of 2.7 million persons unemployed in Germany this year, unchanged from 2011, while the labour force is expected to grow modestly to 43.6 million. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142, email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]

Italy June adj jobless 10.8% Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:01 AM PDT Up from revised 10.6 in May (prev 10.1%) Demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 10.2%

GERMANY DATA: July sa unemployment +7k m/m vs MNI…. Posted: 31 Jul 2012 01:00 AM PDT GERMANY DATA: July sa unemployment +7k m/m vs MNI fcast +10.0k – Germany July sa unemployment rate 6.8% vs June 6.8% – Germany July sa unemployment 2.888 mln vs June 2.881 mln – Germany July nsa unemployment rate 6.8% vs June 6.6% – Germany July nsa unemployment 2.876 mln vs June 2.809 mln – Germany July sa job vacancies -7k vs June -5k – Germany June sa payroll jobs +26k vs May +34k – See Mainwire for more details

German July s.a jobless total +7k Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:56 AM PDT Compared to Reuter’s median forecast of +10k. My private forecast was +7k though, so totally as expected then. Jobless rate unchanged at 6.8%, as expected. Labour office says German labour market in July remains positive overall, though signs of weaker momentum are emerging

Moody’s: UK negative outlook reflects economic outlook Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:51 AM PDT UK faces renewed economic headwinds Cuts 2012 UK GDP forecast to 0.4%in 2012 and 1.8% in 2013 Funding plan may provide ‘modest’ growth boost AAA rating supported by governemnt fiscal plan Moody’s moved the UK to a ‘negative outlook’ back in February

Update: Some EMU,ECB Members Want Bank Licence For ESM; Press Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:10 AM PDT –Adds Comments From German Govt Adviser To Story Sent 06:16 GMT BERLIN (MNI) – France, Italy and some other Eurozone members, as well as members of the European Central Bank Governing Council, are considering giving Europe’s permanent bailout fund ESM a banking licence, the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) reported Tuesday. The paper cited a senior Eurozone official as saying that the idea is winning increasing support. The German government and the Bundesbank, though, are still opposing the idea, SZ wrote. Peter Bofinger, a member of the German government’s council of independent economic advisers, the so-called five wise men, said in a television interview Tuesday that a bank licence for the ESM would be wrong. Central bank involvement “is okay as a temporary solution but not as a permanent solution,” Bofinger told German ARD public television. –Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$I$$$,M$F$$$,MT$$$$,M$$EC$]

Italy’s Monti says sees light at end of tunnel Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:09 AM PDT That’s the 7.30 from Paddington mate (old one’s are always the best) Hopes meeting with France’s Hollande will accelerate moves to strengthen euro, spur growth Confident that Spain’s Rajoy is able to confront country’s problems Will try to convince Finns that accepting June EU summit decisions is in interests of all Europe (likes a challenge then) Markets would react negatively if electoral reform not enacted in Italy before next elections Monti, Hollande, Rajoy……..The Three Amigos!!

Spanish June workday adjusted real retail sales fall -5.2% y/y Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:08 AM PDT ….not good,  better than forecasted -7.7% y/y but  worse than the 4.9% fall in May. It marks the  24 consecutive decline in sales.

JAPAN DATA: Japan’s Q2 GDP, which is due out on Aug.. Posted: 31 Jul 2012 12:00 AM PDT JAPAN DATA: Japan’s Q2 GDP, which is due out on Aug. 13, is expected to show a firm q/q gain, posting a fourth consecutive quarterly rise thanks to steady domestic demand such as consumption and public capital spending, economic institutes said. But the pace of growth is expected to have slowed in Q2, compared with Q1 when GDP rose an annualized 4.7% q/q due to leap-year effects. Q2 GDP grew an annualized 1.9% q/q, according to the average of forecasts from Itochu Economic Research, SMBC Nikko Securities, the Japan Economic Research Institute and Norinchukin Economic Research.

FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.9% m/m, +1.3% y/y; May: y/y. Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:50 PM PDT FRANCE DATA: June PPI -0.9% m/m, +1.3% y/y; May: -1.0 m/m, +2.1% y/y – Manufacturing PPI -1.1% m/m, +0.9% y/y – Oil product prices -7.7% m/m, +2.4% y/y – Food and tobacco prices +0.3% m/m, +2.0% y/y – Industry import prices -1.6% m/m, +1.2% y/y – See Mainwire for more details

FRANCE DATA: 2Q sa housing starts -3.1% q/q; nsa y/y. Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:50 PM PDT FRANCE DATA: 2Q sa housing starts -3.1% q/q; nsa -11.8% y/y - 2Q sa housing permits -2.6% q/q, nsa -3.9% y/y

French June consumer spending +0.1% m/m Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:48 PM PDT As expected but down from May’s revised reading of +0.5% June producer prices  fell -0.9%m/m from -1.0% in May. Expectations were for a fall of  -0.4%m/m

Some at Fed are urging pre-emptive stimulus Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:37 PM PDT How exciting Who wud have thunk it

SNB: Balance Sheet Grows by CHF89.0 Bln On Foreign Currency Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:30 PM PDT FRANKFURT (MNI) – Total assets on the Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet grew by CHF89.0 billion over the first half of this year, the SNB reported on Tuesday. The strongest jump on the central bank’s balance sheet was seen in foreign currency investments, which rose by CHF 107.6 billion, due in large part to foreign currency purchases in 2Q to enforce the CHF/EUR floor. Conversely, claims from Swiss franc repo transactions fell to zero after reaching CHF18.5 billion in the second half of 2011. Claims from U.S. dollar transactions also dried up from 2H11′s CHF 370.5 million level, while stabilisation fund investments fell by CHF 1.0 billion. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@marketnews.com – [TOPICS: M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

Some Eurozone,ECB Members Want To Give ESM Bank Licence;Press Posted: 30 Jul 2012 11:20 PM PDT BERLIN (MNI) – France, Italy and some other Eurozone members, as well as members of the European Central Bank Governing Council, are considering giving Europe’s permanent bailout fund ESM a banking licence, the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) reported Tuesday. The paper cited a senior Eurozone official as saying that the idea is winning increasing support. The German government and the Bundesbank, though, are still opposing the idea, SZ wrote. –Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MGX$$$,M$X$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$I$$$,M$F$$$,MT$$$$,M$$EC$]

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