Jul 30, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY sell stops triggered

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:49 AM PDT

Through 81.80 and 95.90 respectively. More stops are reported down through 95.75 and 81.50, ahead of some tech suppport around 95.15/25 (last week’s lows) and 81.25 (Friday’s low)

BOE Data: June Mortgage Approvals Slump; Hit by Jubilee

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:40 AM PDT

-BOE: UK Jun house purchase approvals 44,192 vs 50,544 May
-BOE: Non-residents sold net stg7.261bn gilts in Jun
-BOE: Urges care over Jun data due extra Jubilee bank holiday

LONDON (MNI) – Mortgage approvals slumped in June, likely driven
down by the exceptionally wet weather and the extended Jubilee weekend.

Bank of England data showed mortgage approvals plunged to 44,192 in
June from 50,544 in May, hitting their lowest level since December 2010.
The BOE, however, said care should be taken in interpreting the data,
with the June 4 and 5 Jubilee national holidays not automatically taken
into accounts in its seasonal adjustment process.

The 44,192 outturn was well below analysts’ median forecast for a
48,500 outturn.

Net mortgage lending rose just fell Stg355 million on the month in
June, while net unsecured borrowing dipped, with net consumer credit
dropping to Stg635 million from Stg774 million in May.

The broad money data showed patches of modest growth, with M4
ex-IOFCs, which excludes economically irrelevant intra-financial sector
transactions, rising 0.5% on the month and 2.9% on a one quarter/three
month annualised basis and 3.5% on a four quarter/12 month basis.

M4 on the year, however, fell 5.2%, the largest fall on record.

The BOE has launched a raft of credit easing measures to try and
get credit flowing to households and smaller businesses through the bank
channel and these data, albeit distorted by one off effects, show how
weak some areas of credit growth have been.

The BOE June Bankstats data showed non-residents were heavy sellers
of gilts in June, just ahead of the relaunch by the BOE of quantitative
easing.

Non-residents sold a net Stg7.161 billion of gilts in June, the
largest net sales since December 2011.

-London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491 email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$,MABDS$]

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield off 15 bps, presently 6.59%

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:39 AM PDT

Interestingly, the periphery bond price action is not providing EUR/USD with any discernible support.

Houston we have a disconnect!!!

EUR/USD hovering down around 1.2258 session low, presently at 1.2260.

UPDATE:  As a helpful reader has just pointed out, elsewhere Italian 10 year govt bond yield has RISEN 5 bps to 6.01% Teach me to not pay proper attention.

UK June M4 money supply -1.6% m/m, -5.2% y/y

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:32 AM PDT

OH OH.. worst reading since series started in 1983

Mortage approvals  44,192  down from May’s 50,544 and below forecasts of 49,000, worst since Dec 2010. Lending -0.4bln down from +£0.3 bln in May.

Cable’s gets a kick down through 1.5700 to  day’s lows around 1.5680

 

EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts July 30 to Aug 3

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:20 AM PDT

HICP (flash) Economic Industry Services
– July – Morale Morale Morale
%yoy – July – – July – – July –

Median Forecast 2.3 88.8 -13.8 -8.0
High forecast 2.5 89.6 -13.0 -7.0
Low forecast 2.2 88.0 -15.0 -8.0
Previous period 2.4 89.9 -12.7 -7.4
-
Number of responses 13 10 8 6
-
4Cast n/a 88.0 -13.5 -8.0
Barclays Cap. 2.3 n/a -14.0 n/a
Berenberg Bank 2.3 n/a n/a n/a
BNP Paribas 2.2 88.9 -13.7 -7.0
BoA-ML 2.2 n/a n/a n/a
Capital Economics 2.3 88.5 n/a n/a
Citi 2.4 88.0 -13.8 n/a
Commerzbank 2.5 88.0 -15.0 -8.0
DZ Bank 2.3 n/a n/a n/a
ING n/a 89.0 -13.0 -8.0
LBBW 2.4 n/a n/a n/a
Natixis 2.4 88.9 -13.3 -7.2
Nomura 2.5 n/a n/a n/a
Soc. Generale n/a 89.6 n/a n/a
Standard Chartered 2.4 88.7 -14.5 -8.0
UBS 2.3 n/a n/a n/a
Unicredit n/a 88.9 n/a n/a
Westpac n/a n/a n/a n/a
–

Producer Prices Retail Sales
– May – – May -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast -0.4 1.9 -0.3 -1.9
High forecast 0.2 2.1 0.2 0.0
Low forecast -0.6 1.8 -0.6 -2.2
Previous period -0.5 2.3 0.6 -1.7
-
Number of responses 6 5 6 4
-
Barclays Cap. n/a n/a -0.2 -1.8
Berenberg Bank n/a n/a -0.6 n/a
BNP Paribas -0.4 2.0 0.2 n/a
Capital Economics -0.6 1.8 -0.4 -2.2
Citi -0.5 1.9 -0.3 n/a
DZ Bank 0.2 n/a n/a n/a
LBBW -0.4 n/a n/a 0.0
Standard Chartered -0.3 2.1 -0.1 -1.9
Westpac n/a 1.8 n/a n/a
–

Jobless
rate (%)
– June -

Median Forecast 11.2
High forecast 11.2
Low forecast 11.1
Previous period 11.1
-
Number of responses 10
-
Barclays Cap. 11.2
Berenberg Bank 11.2
BNP Paribas 11.2
Capital Economics 11.2
Citi 11.1
LBBW 11.2
Natixis 11.1
Standard Chartered 11.2
UBS 11.2
Westpac 11.2

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, July 27.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Germany Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Fcasts July 30 to Aug 3

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:20 AM PDT

Retail Sales Unemployment
– June – – July -
%mom %yoy rate (%) change (’000s)

Median Forecast 0.5 0.4 10.0 6.8
High forecast 0.6 2.5 15.0 6.9
Low forecast -0.3 -1.0 0.0 6.8
Previous period -0.3 -1.1 7.0 6.8
-
Number of responses 9 3 9 8
-
4Cast n/a n/a n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.5 0.4 n/a n/a
Berenberg Bank 0.5 n/a 10.0 6.8
BNP Paribas 0.6 n/a 2.0 6.8
BoA-ML n/a n/a n/a n/a
Capital Economics -0.3 -1.0 n/a 6.8
Citi 0.6 n/a 11.0 n/a
Commerzbank 0.5 2.5 15.0 n/a
DZ Bank n/a n/a 10.0 6.8
ING n/a n/a n/a n/a
LBBW 0.5 n/a n/a 6.9
Natixis n/a n/a 0.0 6.8
Nomura n/a n/a 10.0 n/a
Soc. Generale n/a n/a n/a n/a
Standard Chartered n/a n/a 5.0 6.8
UBS 0.2 n/a 10.0 6.8
Unicredit n/a n/a n/a n/a
Westpac 0.5 n/a n/a n/a

—————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, July 27.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

USD/JPY hovering off day’s lows

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:11 AM PDT

Just sitting above the day’s low of 78.23, but no bounce seen so far, and looks like a test of the semi official and possible BOJ bids touted at 78.00/10 could be on the cards. A break of the level targets reported stops down through 77.90 and 77.75.

There’s also sell stops looming in EUR/JPY through 96.00, day’s low so far has been 96.10 where it currently trades

North-South divide marks euro’s struggle – WSJ

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 01:06 AM PDT

Spain Treasury chief: Won’t request debt-buying fund help

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 12:43 AM PDT

In an interview with Spanish daily Expansion, Inigo Fernandez de Mesa said “It is not on Spain’s agenda to ask for the fund to buy debt, not at all. It hasn’t happened and I can assure you it won’t happen.”

The official said that the Treasury was in a decent position. The average cost of debt issued this year comes in at 3.27%, down from 3.9% last year.  He also advised that 68% of Spain’s issuance planned for 2012 had already been issued.

Few barriers to watch out for..

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 12:13 AM PDT

EUR/USD : 1.2400

EUR/GBP: 0.7750 and 0.7875

AUD/USD:  1.0500

I’m sure there’s more out there , which i’ll add when i can confirm

Spanish 10 year govt bond rallies back, now off 3 bps on day at 6.71%

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 12:12 AM PDT

Told ya it was gonna be a rollercoaster ;)

Italian 10 year govt bond yield off 2 bps at 5.93%.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2285, effectively unchanged on the day,  recovering from slight dip to session low 1.2271.

Ya gotta love Mondays :)

Spanish preliminary Q2 GDP -0.4% q/q from -0.3% in Q1

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 12:02 AM PDT

In line with expectations but euro feeling the pressure again slipping to day’s lows around 1.2270

Y/Y reading also in line with expectations of  -1.0% after -0.4% in Q1

Exporter bids keep AUD/USD on track to test the 1.0500 barrier

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 11:52 PM PDT

A break out through 1.0500 will trigger buy stops and opens a move  up to the Mar 27 highs around 1.0558, but expect some heavy defensive offers ahead of the barrier.

Bids from exporters now sit from 1.0445/55 and more are waiting down at 1.0400/10

 

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up 8 bps at 6.82%

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 11:38 PM PDT

I think it’s fair to expect euro zone periphery bonds to have something of a rollercoaster ride this week ;)

Merkel shifting crisis management to ECB, opposition tells Welt

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 11:27 PM PDT

Bloomberg headline

SDP’s Steinmeier has told Die Welt  that Merkel has shifted the onus of sorting out the debt crisis to the ECB, shirking responsibility for producing effective political policy.

The official says ECB’s Draghi has taken his cue to “do whatever it takes” from a “signal” given by euro leaders at last summit (I think the signal was the hopping around on one leg with their hands over their ears)

GERMANY DATA: June real whsale sales 4.0% y/y; 4.2%..

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 11:10 PM PDT

GERMANY DATA: June real whsale sales 4.0% y/y; nominal 4.2% y/y
– Germany June sa real whsale sales -0.4 m/m; nom. -0.2% m/m
– Germany 2q real wholesale sales 0.1% q/q; nominal 0.6% q/q
– See MNI MainWire for details

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 11:06 PM PDT

EUR/USD:  Sell stops through 1.2270 ahead of bids 1.2250/60. More sells stops through 1.2240. Offers 1.2300/10 and stronger up at 1.2380/00 ahead of barrier at 1.2400.

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.5700/10 and 1.5665/75, sell stops suggested through 1.5660. Offers 1.5755/65 larger up at 1.5780/00 (tech res 100 day MA 1.5781) likely buy stops through 1.5800

EUR/GBP: Tech support 0.7800/05 and 0.7780/85. Offers 0.7830/35 and larger at 0.7865/70

USD/JPY:  Bids 78.20/30 and 78.00/10. Offers start from 78.55 (ichimoku tenkan line) up to 79.00, buy stops above ahead of tech res 79.10/30 (79.12 /79.26 200/55 day MA's)

EUR/JPY:  Bids 96.00/10 sell stops below. Offers 96.60/70, 96.90/00 and 97.25/35 likely buy stops above

AUD/JPY:  Bids 81.90/00, likely sell stops through 81.80 and 81.50, tech support 81.30/35. Offers 82.30/40

EUR/CHF: Bids 1.2000/10(SNB), Offers 1.2025/30 buy stops through 1.2035 and through 1.2055

AUD/USD:  Bids/tech supp 1.0445/55 (exporters), ahead of further tech support 1.0385/90, 0ffers 1.0480/00 (Asian/option names) ahead of a 1.0500 barrier

EUR/AUD:  Tech supp 1.1720/25 and 1.1680/85. Res 1.1765/70 and stronger up at 1.1850/55

NZD/USD:  Offers 0.8100/10, and 0.8150/60,  tech support 0.8050/55 and 0.8000/10

AUD/NZD: tech support 1.2900/10 (200 day MA 1.2905), sell stops below.

Germany should mull lawsuit against ECB, FDP’s Hahn tells Welt

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 10:43 PM PDT

Senior member of the FDP, Joerg-Uwe Hahn,  has told Die Welt  the German government should assess whether bond purchases by the ECB warrant a lawsuit at the European Court of Justice.

The official says the ECB may be violating the EU’s Lisbon treaty if it buys bonds.

Oh dear……..

European stocks to open appreciably firmer

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 10:36 PM PDT

Financial bookies see FTSE up at much as +0.5%,  DAX up as much as +1.1% and CAC 40 up as much as +0.9%.

POLL: Will Draghi take/announce action this week that will demonstrably lower Spanish, Italian bond yields

Posted: 29 Jul 2012 10:27 PM PDT

YES/NO.

If you think YES, you might like to underline what action you’re expecting (or then again you might not)
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