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- GBPUSD runs into resistance near 1.5220 again
- April Fools Day hoaxes
- UK press: Emerging markets dump euro reserves
- EURUSD: sellers noted at 1.2820
- EURGBP: buyers seen around 0.8400
- USDJPY the prime mover
- Option expiries 10am NY cut
- USDJPY pulling the other pairs around in thin conditions
- Top Greek statistician persecuted for telling the truth
- Family of Cyprus’ President transfered €21m out of country days before bailout
- Bite your tongue
- China March manufacturing PMI – recap
- China March final HSBC Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (vs. 51.6 expected and 51.7 for the flash reading)
- “BOJ weighs integration of JGB purchasing programs”
- China: March Manufacturing PMI 50.9 (vs. 51.2 expected)
- Analyst: ” RBA’s easing phase is done”
- Nikkei – “Japanese life insurers hold key to yen outlook”
- Japan: Q1 Tankan results
- China manufacturing PMI up at 0200GMT
- Miniscule moves so far but manufacturing data looms
| GBPUSD runs into resistance near 1.5220 again Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:59 AM PDT We’ve seen a move back up in cable in line with the EURUSD recovery but sell orders are reported at 1.5220 still, around the level where NY left it. Stop loss buying noted on a break of 1.5230 with more offers coming back in at 1.5250 High posted so far 1.5218. Currently 1.5210
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| Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:50 AM PDT On a lighter note while the earlier market flurry seems to have run its course for the moment here’s a list of the top 100 april fools day hoaxes Some real gems here. Enjoy, |
| UK press: Emerging markets dump euro reserves Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:33 AM PDT Here’s an article of interest from the FT The piece is gated but available on a free sign-up. Bear in mind that for many months/years recently nearly all EURUSD dips were bought into by asian sovereigns for USD reserve diversification, thus propping up the euro at a time of intense pressure. |
| EURUSD: sellers noted at 1.2820 Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:24 AM PDT We’ve seen a decent pull back on this pair from the earlier lows of 1.2771 but there are sellers noted at 1.2820 capping the rally for the moment. Currently 1.2812
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| EURGBP: buyers seen around 0.8400 Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:15 AM PDT We’ve seen a move lower in this pair this morning from the NY close around 0.8450 with 0.8411 being posted so far on the back of EURJPY selling pressure , but there is demand seen at 0.8410, 0.8390 and 0.8365. Sellers now lined up at 0.8450, 0.8480 and strong sell interest at 0.8500 still.
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| Posted: 01 Apr 2013 01:00 AM PDT Lows now posted 93.28 but currently 93.44
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| Posted: 01 Apr 2013 12:42 AM PDT
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| USDJPY pulling the other pairs around in thin conditions Posted: 01 Apr 2013 12:23 AM PDT Good day everyone As Easter continues the markets are still very thin but we’re seeing some USDJPY selling this morning after a less than positive Tankan report and weaker than expected Chinese PMI data. USDJPY has been down to post lows of 93.48 from 94.38 pulling EURJPY down to 119.67 from 120.89. EURGBP has been down to 0.8411 from 0.8435. EURUSD was dragged to 1.2771 from 1.2820but since rebounded to 1.2809 bringing the euro pairs back up with it. I shall be online until 13.00 BST when Adam takes over so we’ll keep you posted with news and price action as it happens on this Easter Monday. I believe we’ve had a glitch with the comments page but hopefully it’s ok now so feel free to post your questions and observations as ever. |
| Top Greek statistician persecuted for telling the truth Posted: 31 Mar 2013 09:45 PM PDT Greece's top statistician, Andreas Georgiou, is awaiting questioning by an interrogator magistrate to determine if he is to face criminal charges and a possible jail term. It is thought, but still unconfirmed, that the charge is breach of faith against the state for repeatedly falsifying economic data. And yet this is the ex IMF man who came in to clean up Greece's contaminated statistical office in 2010. For the first time, he applied the correct EU rules. The International Statistical Institute calls the charges "fanciful". For telling the truth about Greece's economic situation, he is threatened with years in prison. This is an outrage and anyone with an interest in finance, fairness in the world and the sanctity of law should sign the petition to drop the charges. Mr Georgiou has spent 21 years helping economically devastated countries and their people at the IMF. Originally he was responsible for preparation, negotiation and monitoring of economic programs and then for the last six years until 2010, he was the deputy division chief in the IMF Statistics Department. What he doesn't know about the statistics of economic data is probably not worth knowing.
But as the Greek crisis unfolded, he decided to give up this highly respected and top position to return to his homeland in its hour of need. The manipulation and inaccuracy of Greece’s economic data in the past had been a major factor in the state's demise. He could help the country of his birth with his mathematical skills. He arrived at ELSTAT in August 2010, just as the statistics body was given independence from political control – demanded by the EU if it was going to hand over rescue money. At that time, the reputation of the data office was in tatters and the EU's statistics office, EUROSTAT, had "reservations" about the last set of Greece's biannual numbers (as it had many times before). Mr Georgiou's arrival with his significant international statistical experience ensured that EU standards were finally applied correctly. The resultant figures showed the budget deficit for 2009 was in fact 15.4% and not the previous estimate of 13.6% (and miles from the 3.7% the besmirched old Greek statistics body had forecast only the year before). Georgiou's 15.4% figure has since been validated by EUROSTAT five times. The IMF also uses Mr Georgiou's numbers in its bailout terms and conditions – a mark of confidence in his data. To quote from a European Commission Report of 8th January 2010, before Mr Georgiou arrived: "lack of quality of the Greek fiscal statistics"; "substantial number of un-answered questions and pending issues still remain in some key areas"; "problems related to statistical weaknesses and failures of the relevant Greek institutions in a broad sense"; "unsatisfactory technical procedures in the Greek statistical institute"; "inappropriate governance, with poor cooperation and lack of clear responsibilities… which leave the quality of fiscal statistics subject to political pressures and electoral cycles". I could go on but won't – read it for yourself. These were the problems that caused the new independent Greek statistical body ELSTAT to be set up with an outsider at the helm – Andreas Georgiou. And he quickly made significant progress. Quoting again from a Eurostat report only months after Mr Georgiou arrived "Eurostat is lifting the reservation on Greek data expressed in… April 2010. Eurostat and the Hellenic Statistical Authority have addressed all of the issues identified in the last reservation during a series of EDP methodological visits." And yet his reward for cleaning up the statistics and ensuring they tell the truth, has been the personal threat of jail, which apparently would be commensurate with the damage done to the Greek state! In the political chaos of Greece, the new three party coalition government seem reluctant to get involved. There is little help for the man who has finally brought some credibility to Greece's economic data and therefore enabled the bailout programme. He has already been "called before parliament to answer accusations by former Statistics chiefs that he inflated the 2009 figures as part of a German led conspiracy to plunge the county into deeper austerity," to quote a Reuters report. It would be hilarious if not so tragic. And it seems from a report in the FT that the current threat of criminal charges comes from data compiled by a former fired ELSTAT chief, responsible for compiling statistics before the crisis when the data was so poor quality and politically influenced. And yet those in charge before the crisis played a part in the devastation of the country, by consistently failing to reveal the true state of affairs until it was too late. For some of them to appear to seek revenge against Mr Georgiou, is despicable. ELSTAT unions have also been against Andreas Georgiou almost as soon as he arrived – once the charges became known, Union bosses called for him to be fired. Eurostat has confirmed that past statistics were highly inaccurate, compiled badly often to serve political interests. Remember the off balance sheet Greek swaps that enabled the government to hide its debt and meet the Maastricht criteria? According to Eurostat, the impact was an increase of "government debt in all years (2006-2009) with an addition at end 2009 of E5.3bn (2.26 percentage points of GDP)". Some of Mr Georgiou's critics approved this deception. New data under Andreas Georgiou have been validated by both EUROSTAT and the IMF. So why is a Greek court threatening him with jail? He is the good guy clearing up past mess, and some of his accusers seem in part those who created it to start with. Those who ignored the rules, ran a poor statistical agency and helped create the economic chaos currently in Greece. Eurostat has confirmed time and time again that Mr Georgiou is finally forcing Greece to follow the rules that everyone else in the Eurozone follows. Eurostat has been unequivocal in its support for Georgiou: "Eurostat refutes all allegations that the deficit of 2009 was over-estimated". Even the British Royal Statistical Society has written a letter to the President of Greece to complain against the charges being laid at Me Georgiou's door: "we have deep concerns about the validity of the case against Mr Georgiou." And the International Statistical Institute joins in too: "…to express their profound disappointment and serious concern over the prosecution of Mr Andreas Georgiou… The charges against Mr Georgiou and two of his two managers of exaggerating the estimates of Greek government deficit and debt for the year 2009 are fanciful and not consistent with the facts" It is a farce that that Mr Gorgiou is threatened with jail in an EU country in the birthplace of democracy, for following EU and International rules. The law should not be used for personal vendettas and political games. I have started an E-petition to raise awareness of the threat to Mr Georgiou and to call on the Greek Prosecutor of Economic Crimes, Grigoris Peponis to drop all charges. I would ask for an apology as well but that I imagine it is highly unlikely. I would be grateful if you could sign the e-petition and pass it on to anyone you know. Twitter, Facebook, email, please get the word spread widely and we can ensure that this honourable man can go back to focusing on what is important – helping with the resurrection of his country for those who live there. |
| Family of Cyprus’ President transfered €21m out of country days before bailout Posted: 31 Mar 2013 09:20 PM PDT An article in Cyprus newspaper Haravgi claims a company owned by the President Anastasiades’ in-laws transferred millions out of the country three days before the decision to tax deposits.
I, for one, am shocked. |
| Posted: 31 Mar 2013 08:02 PM PDT We seem to be having some problems with our comments page. Your abuse and snide remarks sustain us so we’re working on it and will have it fixed ASAP. |
| China March manufacturing PMI – recap Posted: 31 Mar 2013 06:54 PM PDT From Markit Economics:
This is a reasonably good result and has lent a better bid to AUD, which had been sold off a little after the earlier ‘official’ manufacturing PMI result was a little weaker than expected. |
| China March final HSBC Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (vs. 51.6 expected and 51.7 for the flash reading) Posted: 31 Mar 2013 06:45 PM PDT
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| “BOJ weighs integration of JGB purchasing programs” Posted: 31 Mar 2013 06:19 PM PDT An article in the Japan Times “BOJ weighs integration of JGB purchasing programs” discusses the BOJ ‘integrating’ two bond purchase programs. The BOJ currently buys JGBs in two ways,
The article says that by integrating the two methods it
Seriously? I don’t think this is going to have much of an impact. Figuring out the combined size of the two programs is a matter of simple addition. The market is going to want to see much more action taken than something like this. Te be fair to the article, it also says:
Quite. The latter part of the article is worth a read – its a good summary of what’s been happening and what’s expected, for those unfamiliar with developments so far. |
| China: March Manufacturing PMI 50.9 (vs. 51.2 expected) Posted: 31 Mar 2013 06:00 PM PDT
Below expectations, but an improvement from February. AUD ever so slightly lower, around 1.0400 as I type. |
| Analyst: ” RBA’s easing phase is done” Posted: 31 Mar 2013 05:35 PM PDT An article in the Australian press this morning says what has been doing the rounds for a few weeks now, that the easing cycle from the RBA is finished and the next rate move (maybe as early as late 2013) will be up.
Australian Financial Review (gated) The RBA meets tomorrow – expect no change in rates (announcement at 2.30pm local time, 0430GMT). AUD is around 1.0410 in a quiet, holiday market. There may be some impact from the China Manufacturing PMI due at 0200GMT (and HSBC China manufacturing PMI due 45 minutes later at 0245GMT) – AUD was sold off with the weakening Chinese equity markets last week. |
| Nikkei – “Japanese life insurers hold key to yen outlook” Posted: 31 Mar 2013 05:20 PM PDT The Nikkei is carrying a story this morning saying moves into foreign securities by Japanese insurers hold the key to yen direction in this new fiscal year (F2013 begins today in Japan). Falling yields in Japan may pressure investors there to look offshore for better returns. If investors (not just insurers, but all classes of fund managers, pension funds etc.) purchases foreign securities it will be another source of pressure on the yen. Recent posts on this subject:
- USD/JPY is steady around 94.30. |
| Posted: 31 Mar 2013 05:00 PM PDT Soft figures all round, the indices and outlook show an improvement over Q4 2012 but all below expectations. the Capex figure is just awful. There is nothing to stop the BOJ from aggressive easing at their meeting this week (results expected Thursday). USD/JPY has been bid this morning and carried a little higher on the release but is off a fraction now. Moves are very tight so far though – there is not a huge amount of activity going through and volumes will likely decline going into the afternoon later. - Large Manufacturers Index comes in at -8 (worse than expectations of -7)
Non-manufacturing index comes in at 6 (vs. expectations of +8 )
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| China manufacturing PMI up at 0200GMT Posted: 31 Mar 2013 04:11 PM PDT Its going to be a light day in Asia with today with some of the market centres closed for a holiday, leading into a Europe closed too. Tokyo and Singapore are open, so there is scope for some activity.
The Chineses releases are a key market risk for AUD – and with the Australian centres closed for today liquidity is quite poor. |
| Miniscule moves so far but manufacturing data looms Posted: 31 Mar 2013 03:35 PM PDT The US dollar is slightly stronger as holiday-thinned trading begins for the week. USD/CHF and USD/JPY are a few pips higher while the Australian dollar has edged lower. The calendar in Japan and China is fairly busy. At 2350 GMT, the Japanese Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes will be released. At 0100 GMT the focus shifts to China for the official PMI. The consensus is for a rise to 52.00 from 50.10. With the market thin, beware of large swings following the numbers. |
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