NIA's SYNC 3Q Earnings Outlook!

 

Synacor (SYNC) is set to report their 3Q results on approximately October 22nd. After reporting record revenues for the 2Q of $30.81 million, SYNC issued 3Q guidance of revenues between $28 million and $28.5 million. The average analyst currently estimates SYNC's 3Q revenues to be $28.34 million or down 8% from the 2Q.

 

SYNC stated on their conference call that they excluded any positive impact from the Olympics in their 3Q guidance. The Olympics appear to have given SYNC its largest traffic boost in history for the months of July and August. SYNC looks ready to far exceed estimates and if we are right, SYNC could become the biggest percentage gainer in the whole market over the next 30 days!

 

Here are SYNC's detailed traffic estimates from compete.com for not only the latest month of August and the 3Q, but also the three previous quarters. SYNC's TV Everywhere portals are listed below in order starting with SYNC's portals with the most unique visitors in August. This list includes all of SYNC's portals except for Verizon (no accurate traffic data was available) and CableOne (it was just launched this month).

 

Overall, SYNC's 3Q traffic estimates so far appear to be up 6.54% from the 2Q. In NIA's opinion, SYNC is set to far surpass analyst estimates of $28.34 million and if we are right, we believe SYNC will quickly soar back to at least $12.96 per share where it closed before issuing 3Q guidance. Depending on SYNC's September traffic estimates, which haven't been reported yet, SYNC could potentially exceed their 2Q revenues of $30.81 million. If so, NIA believes SYNC could finish the month of October above $15 per share for a gain of about 100% from its current price!

 

NIA sees almost no downside risk for SYNC at its current price! NIA believes SYNC is being priced as if it will miss estimates, and we see no chance of that happening. If SYNC just meets expectations, we believe SYNC will rise back to $10-$11. However, we are confident based on the numbers below that SYNC will beat expectations big time! This is our last opportunity to accumulate SYNC below $8.

 

Charter
August Traffic: 5,354,038 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +11.17%
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 5,336,960 +8.1%
2Q 2012 Average: 4,937,025 +4.78%
1Q 2012 Average: 4,711,762 -4.11%
4Q 2012 Average: 4,913,908
 
CenturyLink (main)
August Traffic: 2,612,405 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +39.7%
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 2,601,739 +8.65%
2Q 2012 Average: 2,394,566 +9.61%
1Q 2012 Average: 2,184,539 +7.98%
4Q 2011 Average: 2,023,060

CenturyLink (for acquired Qwest customers)
August Traffic: 1,825,508 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +42.76%
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 1,775,917 +7.55%
2Q 2012 Average: 1,652,791 +7.47%
1Q 2012 Average: 1,537,892 +6.9%
4Q 2011 Average: 1,438,691

SuddenLink
August Traffic: 1,645,280 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +12.39%
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 1,619,801 +7.48%
2Q 2012 Average: 1,507,022 +4.06%
1Q 2012 Average: 1,448,286 +1.17%
4Q 2011 Average: 1,431,472

Toshiba
August Traffic: 1,631,446
Year-Over-Year Growth: +26.92%
3Q Average (July and August): 1,563,421 -8.86% (12,897,838)
2Q 2012 Average: 1,715,498 -6.89% (9,812,336)
1Q 2012 Average: 1,842,512 +27.31%
4Q 2011 Average: 1,447,306 (11,254,437)
 
Windstream
August Traffic: 1,450,157 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +31.42%
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 1,409,740 +11.03%
2Q 2012 Average: 1,269,713 +9.31%
1Q 2012 Average: 1,161,557 +5.16%
4Q 2011 Average: 1,104,588
 
TDS
August Traffic: 373,673 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +29.95%
3Q Average (July and August): 366,377 +2.31%
2Q 2012 Average: 358,092 +5.82%
1Q 2012 Average: 338,397 +1.69%
4Q 2011 Average: 332,758

Mediacom
August Traffic: 370,432 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +23.15%
3Q Average (July and August): 368,457 +18.28%
2Q 2012 Average: 311,511 +6.24%
1Q 2012 Average: 293,204 -5.63%
4Q 2011 Average: 310,701

Cincinnati Bell
August Traffic: 295,440
Year-Over-Year Growth: N/A
3Q 2012 Average (July and August): 310,335 +65.82%
2Q 2012 Average: 187,156
1Q 2012 Average: N/A
4Q 2011 Average: N/A
 
WOW!
August Traffic: 281,340
Year-Over-Year Growth: +4.08%
3Q Average (July and August): 279,716 -0.85%
2Q 2012 Average: 282,108 +5.49%
1Q 2012 Average: 267,431 -7.85%
4Q 2011 Average: 290,221

Midcontinent
August Traffic: 274,037
Year-Over-Year Growth: +26.01%
3Q Average (July and August): 268,959 +2.72%
2Q 2012 Average: 261,826 -1.94%
1Q 2012 Average: 267,018 +1.23% (14,052,598)
4Q 2011 Average: 263,773 (13,556,478)
 
Armstrong
August Traffic: 238,756
Year-Over-Year Growth: +38.36%
3Q Average (July and August): 239,282 -0.7%
2Q 2012 Average: 240,958 +14.13%
1Q 2012 Average: 211,131 +8.44%
4Q 2011 Average: 194,698
 
Bresnan
August Traffic: 167,226
Year-Over-Year Growth: +10.99%
3Q Average (July and August): 163,637 +0.55%
2Q 2012 Average: 162,743 -1.04%
1Q 2012 Average: 164,453 -10.08%
4Q 2011 Average: 182,878

Atlantic Broadband
August Traffic: 156,650 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +55.23%
3Q Average (July and August): 152,766 +8.09%
2Q 2012 Average: 141,326 +24.25%
1Q 2012 Average: 113,739 +5.27%
4Q 2011 Average: 108,050

Knology
August Traffic: 135,152
Year-Over-Year Growth: +48.62%
3Q Average (July and August): 130,890 -3.71%
2Q 2012 Average: 135,932 +9.16%
1Q 2012 Average: 124,524 +24.51%
4Q 2011 Average: 100,010

Consolidated
August Traffic: 71,535 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +12.26%
3Q Average (July and August): 67,779 +1.39%
2Q 2012 Average: 66,852 +11.02%
1Q 2012 Average: 60,214 +2.39%
4Q 2011 Average: 58,811

SureWest
August Traffic: 49,147
Year-Over-Year Growth: -14.8%
3Q Average (July and August): 47,905 -10.73%
2Q 2012 Average: 53,666 -7.6%
1Q 2012 Average: 58,083 +3.24%
4Q 2011 Average: 56,259

North State
August Traffic: 31,908 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +57.85%
3Q Average (July and August): 29,665 +19.06%
2Q 2012 Average: 24,915 +18.45%
1Q 2012 Average: 21,034 -7.03%
4Q 2011 Average: 22,625

Buckeye
August Traffic: 30,820
Year-Over-Year Growth: +1.49%
3Q Average (July and August): 33,827 -4.04%
2Q 2012 Average: 35,252 +4.54%
1Q 2012 Average: 33,720 -6.87%
4Q 2011 Average: 36,207

Hawaiian Tel
August Traffic: 30,382 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: +28.68%
3Q Average (July and August): 30,166 +14.77%
2Q 2012 Average: 26,285 +12.11%
1Q 2012 Average: 23,445 +6.58%
4Q 2011 Average: 21,998

New Wave
August Traffic: 23,425
Year-Over-Year Growth: +22.64%
3Q Average (July and August): 23,964 -9.31%
2Q 2012 Average: 26,425 +25.74%
1Q 2012 Average: 21,016 +4.27%
4Q 2011 Average: 20,156

GVTC
August Traffic: 18,016
Year-Over-Year Growth: +25.31%
3Q Average (July and August): 17,532 -3.02%
2Q 2012 Average: 18,078 +18.7%
1Q 2012 Average: 15,230 -10.47%
4Q 2011 Average: 17,012

Hickory Tech
August Traffic: 17,353
Year-Over-Year Growth: +18.61%
3Q Average (July and August): 18,245 +11.79%
2Q 2012 Average: 16,321 +20.05%
1Q 2012 Average: 13,595 +9.55%
4Q 2011 Average: 12,410
 
Blue Ridge
August Traffic: 12,833
Year-Over-Year Growth: -3.61%
3Q Average (July and August): 13,307 +24.71%
2Q 2012 Average: 10,670 +1.87%
1Q 2012 Average: 10,474 -3.22%
4Q 2011 Average: 10,822

BendBroadband
August Traffic: 11,592
Year-Over-Year Growth: +25.82%
3Q Average (July and August): 8,015 +68.45%
2Q 2012 Average: 4,758 -76.68%
1Q 2012 Average: 20,401 +51.59%
4Q 2011 Average: 13,458
 
Broadstripe
August Traffic: 11,517
Year-Over-Year Growth: +63.66%
3Q Average (July and August): 11,871 +3.79%
2Q 2012 Average: 11,438 +11.15%
1Q 2012 Average: 10,291 +27.98%
4Q 2011 Average: 8,041
 
Truvista
August Traffic: 10,775 (record)
Year-Over-Year Growth: N/A
3Q Average (July and August): 9,272 +17.19%
2Q 2012 Average: 7,912 +15.6%
1Q 2012 Average: 6,844 +10.62%
4Q 2011 Average: 6,187
 
Ritter
August Traffic: 7,097
Year-Over-Year Growth: +57.85%
3Q Average (July and August): 6,121 -12.91%
2Q 2012 Average: 7,028 +72.59%
1Q 2012 Average: 4,072 -28.65%
4Q 2011 Average: 5,707

Grande
August Traffic: 2,058
Year-Over-Year Growth: -25.3%
3Q Average (July and August): 2,605 +22.82%
2Q 2012 Average: 2,121 +47.5%
1Q 2012 Average: 1,438
4Q 2011 Average: N/A

Hargray
August Traffic: 1,222
Year-Over-Year Growth: -32.04%
3Q Average (July and August): 1,407 +15.14%
2Q 2012 Average: 1,222 -22.85%
1Q 2012 Average: 1,584 -11.06%
4Q 2011 Average: 1,781

 

3Q 2012 Average Monthly Unique Users: 16,909,678 +6.54%
2Q 2012 Average Monthly Unique Users: 15,871,210 +6.04%
1Q 2012 Average Monthly Unique Users: 14,967,886 +3.7%
4Q 2011 Average Monthly Unique Users: 14,433,588

  

NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.

 

Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 486,035 shares of SYNC. NIA intends to sell these shares in the future and can do so at any time. NIA reserves the right to add to its SYNC position at any time.

 

NIA is not an investment advisor. This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.

 

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