Sep 30, 2012

Forex Crunch GBP/USD Outlook October 1-5

Forex Crunch GBP/USD Outlook October 1-5


GBP/USD Outlook October 1-5

Posted: 30 Sep 2012 03:34 AM PDT

GBP/USD was marked by a quiet week of trading. The pair dropped slightly at week’s end, closing in the mid-1.61 range. The upcoming week is quite busy, with 10 events. Here is an outlook of the upcoming events, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

UK data was very close to the market forecasts. In the US, the numbers were mixed – housing figures were weak, but employment data was stronger than anticipated.

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USD/CHF Forecast October 1-5

Posted: 30 Sep 2012 02:40 AM PDT

USD/CHF remained range-bound last week, as the Swiss franc was almost unchanged against the US dollar. The pair closed just below the 0.94 line. The upcoming week has four releases, highlighted by Foreign Currency Reserves. Here is an outlook for the Swiss events, and an updated technical analysis for USD/CHF.

The pair continued to show little movement, as key US releases were mixed. Housing data was weak, but Unemployment Claims was better than the market estimate.

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USD/JPY Outlook October 1-5

Posted: 30 Sep 2012 01:28 AM PDT

Dollar/yen was under pressure throughout most of the week and was unable to recover. Fear of global slowdown weighed on the pair. Japan‘s rate decision and the BOJ press conference are the major events this week. Here's an outlook for the Japanese events and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

Last week, Japanese household spending and Retail sales increased unexpectedly by 1.8% on a yearly base suggesting the moderate recovery continues. Household spending grew 2.2% from July and retail sales posted the first yearly rise in two months in August, despite a recent slowdown in automobile purchases following the termination of the governmental subsidies for low-emission vehicles. Will the growth trend continue in the coming months?

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NZD/USD Outlook October 1-5 2012

Posted: 30 Sep 2012 12:46 AM PDT

NZD/USD remained almost unchanged in range throughout most of the week and eventually made some small gains. There are no major events in the first week of the last quarter, so the outlook will focus on the technical analysis for NZD/USD, which formed an interesting double top.

New Zealand’s trade balance disappointed with a bigger than expected deficit. On the other hand, building consents rose for a second month in a row. Global concerns, especially from China, weighed on the currency.

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USD/CAD Outlook October 1-5

Posted: 29 Sep 2012 10:27 AM PDT

USD/CAD moved higher for a second week in a row, despite stronger Canadian figures. Oil wasn’t helpful at all. Ivey PMI, Housing and employment data ate the highlight of this week. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian retail sales surged by an unexpected 0.7% in July from a 0.3% decline in June while core sales excluding  automobiles climbed 0.4% offsetting the 0.4% decline in the preceding month. Both readings topped expectations paving the way to another pleasant surprise. GDP release came out better than forecasted, expanding by 0.2%, above the 0.1% increase predicted. Will the Canadian economy continue to increase the pace of growth in the coming months?

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EUR/USD Forecast October 1-5 2012

Posted: 29 Sep 2012 06:38 AM PDT

Euro/dollar lost ground for a second week in a row, as Spain’s issues worsened. Also Greece isn’t doing that well, and the global slowdown also takes its toll. The upcoming week is the first for the last quarter of the year, and it features many events. The rate decision is the most important one. Here is an outlook for the upcoming events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.  

Spain was the epicenter of the crisis once again: the new austerity budget is expected to be sufficient and prevent new measures when the bailout request will finally be made. The bank stress tests showed a need for 59.3 billion euros – not a scary number. However, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland backed down from an agreement that recapitalizes the banks directly using the ESM. The banks could still be a burden on the Spanish state. Regarding an agreement between Greece and its creditors, there is still a lot of uncertainty, with conflicting reports of progress and of troubles in the talks. How will this end?

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