Forex Crunch USD/CAD Breaks Support Line on Jobs – Road to Parity Open

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• USD/CAD Breaks Support Line on Jobs – Road to Parity Open
• Forex Daily Outlook – March 12th 2010
• Introducing Brokers Join the Fight Against the CFTC

USD/CAD Breaks Support Line on Jobs – Road to Parity Open Posted: 12 Mar 2010 04:16 AM PST Canadian employment data was slightly better than expected. This was the hay that broke the camel’s back – after a week of struggle, USD/CAD finally broke 1.02 and heads down to parity. Canada’s employment figures surprised analysts for a second month in a row. Contrary to last month’s huge surprise, the numbers were only slightly better this time. Employment Change showed a gain of 20,900 jobs, better than 17,500 that was predicted. Only a small change. The more significant release was the Unemployment Rate, that fell once again – from 8.3% to 8.2%, the lowest since April 2009. This continues the steady advance of the economy. Let’s see the impact on forex: USD/CAD Breakdown USD/CAD reacted with a fall off the cliff – it fell from 1.0215 to 1.0165 in a sharp and instant move. The initial reaction will probably be followed by a small correction, and then a continued move downwards. USD/CAD is now at the lowest levels since July 2008. The 1.02 support line was the 2009 low (in October) and also approached twice in 2010: in mid January and during the last two weeks. During this week, USD/CAD gradually went down, approaching the line and retreating time after time. The employment numbers took it below this line. No further support lines exist before the ultimate one: USD/CAD parity. The pair was around the parity line from September 2007 to July 2008, reaching the lowest level, 0.9056 in a swing move on November 7th, 2007. Parity supplies huge support. If the pair breaks it, the next level is 0.98. If the current break under 1.02 isn’t confirmed, the next resistance line if 1.04, which worked as both support and resistance lines for a very long time. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. Share this on del.icio.us Digg this! Post this on Diigo Share this on Reddit Stumble upon something good? Share it on StumbleUpon Share this on Technorati Share this on Mixx Tweet This! Subscribe to the comments for this post? Add this to Mister Wong

Forex Daily Outlook – March 12th 2010 Posted: 11 Mar 2010 02:00 PM PST Two American figures will be in the limelight todya: retail sales and consumer sentiment. In addition, we have employment figures from Canada and other events. Let’s see what’s up for today. Up to now, this week saw tight trading, especially in the major pairs. Only the Aussie stood out with a break, enjoying good employment figures among other reasons to rise. OK, let’s start the review: German wholesales prices are released in the morning. They’re expected to rise by 0.6%, half of last month’s scale. Later in Europe, Industrial Production is expected to rise by 0.8% after falling last month. Apart from indicators, two speeches are due in Europe: Bundesbank president Axel Weber will speak in Bonn and ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will speak in Stanford near the end of the day. EUR/USD is rising within the range. For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast and Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis. In Britain, we also have a speech: MPC member Spencer Dale can shake the Pound when he makes a public appearance. For the Pound’s levels, read the GBP/USD forecast. The Canadian dollar will have a chance to break below 1.02 when the employment figures are released. Canada’s Employment Change is predicted to rise moderately by 17,500 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.3%. These important figures come after a tight week, in which USD/CAD traded lower, but couldn’t break below 1.02. For more, read the USD/CAD forecast. In the US, Retail Sales are expected to drop by 0.1% after a nice rise of 0.5% last month. Core retail sales, no less important, are expected to rise by 0.1%. This important figure will shake the markets, but there’s another one released soon afterwards. Consumer sentiment is expected to edge up from 73.6 to 74. This is the initial release by the University of Michigan. This figure is released near the close of the markets, so it will move them strongly. Also in the US: Business Inventories are expected to rise by 0.2% after dropping by the same scale last month. Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner will speak at a conference in Washington, and can also shake the dollar. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. Share this on del.icio.us Digg this! Post this on Diigo Share this on Reddit Stumble upon something good? Share it on StumbleUpon Share this on Technorati Share this on Mixx Tweet This! Subscribe to the comments for this post? Add this to Mister Wong

Introducing Brokers Join the Fight Against the CFTC Posted: 11 Mar 2010 05:30 AM PST The proposed regulation by the CFTC isn’t only about leverage. It consists of regulations that are a big blow to brokers and to introducing brokers. A group of IBs has joined forces to challenge the CFTC in a new site: ibcoalition.org. All the founding members of this coalition are members of the NFA. Regarding permits, they ask to get the same treatment as IB operators in futures or guarantees. They also ask the CFTC to study forex market and to rethink the 10:1 leverage proposal. Apart from showing their stand, the members also call traders to send their comments to the CFTC. This coalition joins the Forex Dealer Coalition (FXDC) and the Traders Alliance. Also US congressmen “grilled” the CFTC for these proposed regulations. Their announcement contains more data about the members and their goals: Leading Forex Introducing Brokers form coalition to challenge proposed CFTC rulings Forms IBcoalition.org and proposes fair industry-based alternatives to regulations Boston, MA – March 11, 2010 – Today, a group of leading Forex Introducing Brokers (IBs) announced the formation of www.ibcoalition.org, an organization comprised of independent, regulated Forex Introducing Brokers who have joined together to challenge the proposed CFTC rules titled "Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries," 75 FR 3282 (Jan. 20, 2010). The main mission of the IB coalition is to suggest significant changes to the proposed CFTC regulations. The IBs currently participating in www.ibcoalition.org are ATC Brokers (NFA Member #0358522), BackBay FX (NFA Member #0388617), Currensee (NFA Member #0403251), Fast Trading Services LLC (NFA Member #0342002), Forex On The Go, LLC (NFA Member #409594) and Gecko Financial Services, Inc. (NFA Member #0402367). "We formed IBcoalition.org to come together as regulated IB businesses to oppose the proposed CFTC regulations that, if passed, will significantly change our businesses," said Dave Lemont CEO Currensee.   "Those of us in the IB Coalition are, we believe, the types of firms the Commission should be supporting as alternatives to the fraudulent unregistered solicitors the Commission has spent so much time and effort shutting down over the years. Unfortunately, though, in its zeal to curtail fraudulent solicitation practices, the Commission is proposing a set of rules that needlessly restrict legitimate Forex activities and will, if adopted, seriously undermine our ability to operate successfully as regulated alternatives. We welcome the opportunity to meet with the Commission and present our comments directly." The pending CFTC rulings propose that a Forex IB must enter into a guarantee agreement with a CFTC-regulated Forex Dealer Member (FDM), along with a requirement that the Forex IB may be a party to only one guarantee agreement at a time. By asking IBs to enter into an exclusive arrangement with only one FDM, IBs are limited in where they can refer customers, which creates a conflict of interest and is not aligned with the best interest of the customer. Independent IBs bring a valuable service to the retail trader. By carefully matching a trader's style and needs with the right broker as it relates to spreads, trading platforms and customer service offerings, independent IBs help retail customers make the decision that's right for them. Furthermore, these proposed rule changes are contradictory to the current CFTC policy in place for the on-exchange futures market, which allows independent IBs to introduce business to multiple Futures Commission Merchants thus enabling IBs to do what is in the best interest of their clients. The IB Coalition views the CFTC proposed rules as needlessly restricting legitimate Forex activities and capable of pushing Forex business off-shore, creating new opportunities for non-regulated or fraudulent businesses who don't care about U.S. regulatory requirements. The IB Coalition recently submitted a 10-page letter to the CFTC and, among other points, suggested the following changes to the proposed rulings First, the IB Coalition urged the CFTC to revise the proposed rules to permit a Forex IB to operate either as an independent IB subject to the same minimum capital requirements that apply to a futures IB or as a guaranteed IB. Second, the IB Coalition asked the CFTC to undertake a study of the retail Forex markets to assure that the rules it ultimately adopts are based on a solid factual understanding of the markets and are tailored accordingly. Third, the IB Coalition proposed the CFTC defer to NFA to set appropriate leverage restrictions as it relates to the proposed 10:1 leverage. An onerous leverage restriction, such as this, creates opportunities for unregistered fraudulent schemes to exploit U.S. customers is contrary to the public interest. "As an IB, our job is to be objective and help the trader make the best decision about which broker best suits their needs," says Stephen Leahy, President Back Bay FX. "The proposed CFTC rulings compromise the objectivity we are able to bring to our clients and completely disregards the best interest of the customer. Joining forces with the other IBs participating in IBcoalition.org is an important step in articulating our concerns both from a business and consumer-protection perspective. We welcome other IBs to join us in opposing the CFTC proposed rulings as it is currently written." The IB Coalition urges traders to make their voice heard by submitting their comments at www.ibcoalition.org. About IBcoalition.org IBcoalition.org is an organization comprised of independent, regulated Forex Introducing Brokers who have joined together to challenge the proposed CFTC rules titled "Regulation of Off-Exchange Retail Foreign Exchange Transactions and Intermediaries," 75 FR 3282 (Jan. 20, 2010). The main mission of the IB coalition is to suggest significant changes to the proposed CFTC regulations and a number of Introducing Brokers have already joined the group. To get more information or find out how to join, please visit www.ibcoalition.org. Share this on del.icio.us Digg this! Post this on Diigo Share this on Reddit Stumble upon something good? Share it on StumbleUpon Share this on Technorati Share this on Mixx Tweet This! Subscribe to the comments for this post? Add this to Mister Wong

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