Dec 27, 2011

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

FRANCE DATA: Sep-Nov sa housing starts +3.1% q/q;….

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FRANCE DATA: Sep-Nov sa housing starts +3.1% q/q; nsa +16.5% y/y - Sep-Nov sa housing permits +0.9% q/q, nsa +27.0% y/y

Japan Nov Construction Orders +21.0% Y/Y, 2-Month Rise

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TOKYO (MNI) – The value of construction orders received by the 50 largest contractors in Japan rose 21.0% in November from a year earlier to Y812.4 billion, the second straight month it has marked a year-on-year rise, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said on Tuesday. The November reading followed a 24.3% rise [...]

Japan Nov Housing Starts Post 3rd Fall In Row

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– Japan Nov Housing Starts -0.3% Y/Y; MNI Fcast -5.0% – Japan Nov Housing Starts Post 3rd Y/Y Fall in Row TOKYO (MNI) – Housing starts in Japan slumped 0.3% in November to 72,635 units, posting a third straight fall, as demand waned after the government ended its subsidies for building energy-saving homes in July, [...]

ForexLive Asia-Pacific Wrap: BOJ sees continuing problems in Europe

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Nov 30 BOJ minutes: market stress due to Europe likely to persist for a protracted period Polls show Japan PM Noda quickly losing popularity Chinese corporate profits +24.4% y/y in the first 11 months of 2011 Chinese provincial borrowers defer $5B in loan payments for two months Chinese fiscal deficit forecast is 800B yuan in [...]

Too much US growth is priced in

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The more I read, the more skeptical I get about early 2012 US growth. I just read a story on gold that said: “Gold prices may be under pressure from a strengthening dollar in the next few months as the brightened economic prospects in the United States are likely to further boost the dollar index,” [...]

Outrageous predictions for 2012

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Here are 10 outrageous predictions, including EUR/CHF at 1.50. Have one of your own?

AUD continues to lag but choppiness rules

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AUD is near a session low at 1.0146 and is the only notable mover. The declines come after similar gains on Monday. The Swiss franc is the top performer.

China headline roundup

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Economic growth in 2012 expected at 8.5% but Europe is a risk, says Yu Bin, a govt macro researcher Govt should purchase gold when prices favorable, says Zhang Jianhau, at a bureau affiliated with the PBOC Beijing growth expected to slow and lending costs remain high, according to PBOC survey The govt is planning to [...]

More mind-boggling Chinese numbers

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The boom in China continues to amaze me, even after a decade. Industrial profits in the first 11 months of the year were up 24.4% from the prior year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Falling hopes for Chinese stimulus?

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The Shanghai Securities Journal is reporting that China’s fiscal deficit will be cut to 800B yuan in 2012 from 850B this year. The decline is weighing on risk appetite in the past few minutes. The spin is that this is disappointing for those hoping for more stimulus from the government but spending is still increasing [...]

A quick look at the CFTC data

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Friday’s CFTC data (as of Dec. 20): We didn’t cover this one on Friday, so here it is. EUR from a record -116K to -114K. JPY  to +24K from +35K. Sterling  to -26K from -34K. CAD to -27K from -16K. AUD fell to +26K from +33K. Two takeaways: 1) there is an appetite to get [...]

Update: BOJ Minutes: Must Watch If Weak Data Will Be Temporary

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– Adds Details, Background From 13th Paragraph TOKYO (MNI) – A few Bank of Japan board members at the Nov. 15-16 policy meeting warned that the BOJ must be watchful of recent weak economic data and the negative impact of the strong yen on Japan’s fragile economic recovery, according to the minutes released by the [...]

Gold falls below $1600

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Gold slips to $1599 in early trade from $1606. Lots of choppy, illiquid moves at the moment; it’s risky to read too much into them.

Azumi seeing rising overseas demand

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Japan’s fin min expects exports to pick up in early 2012. He also said Japan is also working on a USD swap line agreement with India.

Some talk about slow Boxing Day sales

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Did pre-Xmas discounts bite into post-Xmas sales? I don’t know but stuff like this will be analyzed to death in places like CNN and CNBC. For me, it’s so hard to get a clean read until early January because of growing online shopping. Here’s another view: About 57 percent of Americans planned to shop the [...]

Nikkei opens +0.4%

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South Korea’s Kospi flat. More flows are chopping through.

Japan Nov Corporate Service Prices Post 1st Fall in 3 Mths

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– Japan Nov Corporate Service Prices -0.2% Y/Y Vs Oct +0.1% – Japan Nov Total CSPI Post 1st Y/Y Fall in 3 Mths TOKYO (MNI) – Japan’s corporate service price index fell 0.2% in November, marking the first year-on-year fall in three months, Bank of Japan data released on Tuesday showed. The November reading followed [...]

BOJ Minutes: Must Watch If Weak Data Will Be Temporary

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TOKYO (MNI) – A few Bank of Japan board members at the Nov. 15-16 policy meeting warned that the BOJ must be watchful of recent weak economic data and the negative impact of the strong yen on Japan’s fragile economic recovery, according to the minutes released by the BOJ on Tuesday showed. “A few members [...]

BOJ minutes: Market stress likely to persist

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The minutes of the Nov 15-16 BOJ minutes are crossing. Some said unstable markets are affecting Japan to some extent All agreed on the need to be mindful of adverse risks of European crisis Many said high uncertainty could boost JPY and hurt econ A few said they will watch to see if recent weakness [...]

No yield, no problem: JPY best performer of 2011

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The yen was the best performer in 2011, followed by GBP and CHF (in spite of intervention). There's been no better currency in 2011 than the yen and strategists forecast more gains, even as Japan promises to intervene again in foreign-exchange markets and expands the world's biggest debt burden. What will be the top-3 currencies [...]
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