Your forexlive.com ENewsletter |  |
- UK retail sales worse than expected
- Eurozone February composite PMI 53.7, slightly better than expected
- German February flash composite PMI 55.4, highest since August 2007
- Russia cuts rates
- Cable slips back below 1.5400
- French business morale 91 in February
- USD/JPY steady at higher levels
- German January PPI stronger than expected
- Cable trips stops in early European trade
- EUR/USD languishes close to recent low
- Early Europe testing cable support
- Asian FX market wrap: heavy falls in EUR/USD and cable
- Steady trade to wind down the week
- More bearish headlines to undermine the GBP
- More analysis on the Fed’s discount move
- Dead cat bounce in majors
- Fed’s Bullard: ‘belief in rate hike this year’, overblown
- Cable bounces off 1.5410 again
- Bearish feel remains in the market
- Fed’s Bullard on newswires: inflation expectations increasing
| UK retail sales worse than expected Posted: UK January retail sales -1.8% m/m, +0.9% y/y, worse than the median forecasts of -0.5%, +1.1% respectively. Guess that cold weather had bigger impact than was expected. Not overly surprising, it was nastily cold. I even stayed in for one whole week during January amid all the bloody snow. Kneejerk sell-off in ...    |
| Eurozone February composite PMI 53.7, slightly better than expected Posted: Euro zone February flash composite PMI 53.7 , unchanged from January, and very slightly better than median forecast of 53.5. Manufacturing PMI 54.1, up from 52.4 in January, and better than median forecast of 52.6 Services PMI 52,0, down from 52.5 in January, and slightly worse than median forecast of 52.5 The better ...  |
| German February flash composite PMI 55.4, highest since August 2007 Posted: German February manufacturing PMI 57.1 from 53.7 in January, better than median forecast 53.9 and the highest read since June 2007 Services PMI 51.7, down from 52.2 in January and below median forecast of 52.4. Composite 55.4, up from 54.6 in January and highest since August 2007. EUR/USD remains little changed on day, ...  |
| Posted: Russian central bank has cut benchmark refi rate to 8.5% from 8.75% Bank wants to stimulate lending and try to limit short-term foreign capital inflows. Next rates meeting in March. Further rate cuts to depend on inflation, economy, financial market.  |
| Posted: Cable's sojourn above 1.5400 didnt last long, and we're presently back at 1.5390 amid reports of Eastern European sales. Stops tipped below 1.5350 and above 1.5440.  |
| French business morale 91 in February Posted: French business morale has come in at 91, unchanged from downwardly revised 91 in January (prev 92) This is weaker than median forecast of 93. EUR/USD sits at 1.3475 in eerily quiet market. Something to tuck away for future reference. There has been much talk of sizeable 1.33-1.43 dnt structures in place.  |
| USD/JPY steady at higher levels Posted: USD/JPY sits at 91.90 in relatively calm trade. Guess those Japanese entities recently touting 92.50 in weeks knew their onions, as we say over here. Not surprisingly they'll have to wade though Japanese exporters to get there. Sell orders noted up at 92.30/50. Buy orders 91.40/50. Possibly small stops below there, ...  |
| German January PPI stronger than expected Posted: German January PPI has come in stronger than expected, +0.8% m/m, -3.4% y/y versus median forecasts +0.3%, -4.0% respectively. Impact on EUR/USD, zero. Sits little changed in early European trade, presently at 1.3472. Not surprisingly European stocks set to open lower, DAXX futures indicating decline of some 0.7%  |
| Cable trips stops in early European trade Posted: Stops through 1.5400 have been tripped in early European trade and we've been as low as 1.5383 so far. Sterling has been particularly hard hit by the US discount rate hike hiatus. Market will have noted Telegraph article entitled "Britain at risk of worse deficit crisis than Greece." Main UK data today ...  |
| EUR/USD languishes close to recent low Posted: EUR/USD sits at 1.3475, having been as low as 1.3443 in the wake of Fed's move to raise discount rate. Fed has been out to play down expectations of early rate hike, Fed's Bullard opining it's unlikely any will be forthcoming this year. On to more mundane matters. Raft of euro zone economic data releases ...  |
| Early Europe testing cable support Posted: Cable stalled twice during the Asian session at the 1.5410 level, leaving traders to speculate on Sovereign buying and/or option protection. I have no confirmation of either. We are now back close to this level again and a clean break below 1.5400 and a break above .8750 for EUR/GBP could ...  |
| Asian FX market wrap: heavy falls in EUR/USD and cable Posted: Fed raises discount rate Market surprised by timing, USD rallies hard and fast Fed's Bullard says unlikely that any rate hikes could come this year Sterling suffers amid more negative headlines RBA's Stevens sees Australian economy continuing to grow Gold fell by 1% after the Fed but has steadied since to close above $1105/oz Regional sharemarkets ...  |
| Steady trade to wind down the week Posted: We must remember that today is the last day of the Chinese New Year celebrations and as such not many traders in HK and Singapore were at their desks today. We should take all this into account when analysing today's moves. A 200-pip downmove in EUR/USD and cable certainly does ...  |
| More bearish headlines to undermine the GBP Posted: Headlines such as this leader in the UK Telegraph claiming that the deficit situation in the UK is worse than Greece will weigh heavily on the pound once London opens in a few hours. This is why the pound is having such difficulty in bouncing off the 1.54 level.  |
| More analysis on the Fed’s discount move Posted: This is the latest updated Bloomberg analysis.  |
| Posted: Regional stockmarkets are lower by around 1.5% on average and the mini-rally in EUR/USD and cable after the Bullard comments has petered out again. Cable is back at 1.5420 and I suspect the sell-off might pick up more momentum if we break below 1.5400.  |
| Fed’s Bullard: ‘belief in rate hike this year’, overblown Posted: The EUR/USD and cable are rallying after these comments.  |
| Cable bounces off 1.5410 again Posted: Vague rumours of Sovereign interest and/or option protection at the 1.5400 level have helped cable to bounce again off 1.5410 but I suspect that there will be lots of stops now below 1.5400. EUR/GBP is right on the .8745 resistance level which I mentioned earlier. EUR/USD is holding up but ...  |
| Bearish feel remains in the market Posted: EUR/USD and cable are looking much too comfortable close to the bottom which suggests that we might be in for further falls before the session is over. I'm not hearing of any significant orders close to the market. Technical support at 1.3410/20 in the EUR/USD, a previous pivot plus the ...  |
| Fed’s Bullard on newswires: inflation expectations increasing Posted: Economic recovery on track but has a long way to go  |
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