Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions |
- Are Gold And Silver Melting Or Firming Up? This Week Will Be A Pivotal One
- Forex Trading Review For 01/02/2010
- Economic, News And US Earnings Reports For The Week Feb 1 - 5 2010
- Financial Elite’s Behaviour Has Opened Floodgates For Gold
- Gazprom: Angel Or Demon?
- Forex Trading: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI
- Video: Boeing’s Dreamliner Passes Stall Test
- Bare Cupboards, Cranky People…
- Dissecting The “January Effect” Of Stock Markets
- Markets Don’t Stay Bad Forever: Cycles, Trends And An Oil Refining Example
- Are China ETFs Deceivingly High?
- Further Price Weakness Likely In Real Estate ETFs
- Gold Price To Benefit In The Medium Term From Declining Production
- Short Stock Picks For Monday 1 February
- Could The US Stock Markets Fall From Their Lofty Heights?
- Further Weakness Expected In Singapore Banking Stocks
- Fed’s Currency Swap Lines: A BIG Deal For The Dollar
- Stock Market Correction Characterized By Typical Risk Aversion Patterns
- Time To Short Goldman Sachs And JPMorgan Chase Shares
- The Week Ahead: No Sustained Improvement In US Job Market
- Good Advice For Bad Times
- Hungry For Dividends? Here’s A Buffet Of Higher Yields
- Forex Trading: Aud AIG Manufacturing Index Came Out Better At 51.0
- Forex Trading: Eur/Usd Continues To Makes New Lows For The Year.
- January 2010 Market Review
- Chinese Stock Market Breaks down
- S&P 500: A Medium-Term Correction Is Just Beginning
- Blindness And Emotion In The Market
- Stock Investor Sentiment
- Stock Picks For 1 February
- Singapore Stock Market: Our Focus For Today Is On Property, Commodity & Financial Sector – Short Selling
| Are Gold And Silver Melting Or Firming Up? This Week Will Be A Pivotal One Posted: 01 Feb 2010 02:45 AM PST The past two months have been tough on the precious metals sector. We saw precious metals lead the market higher all of last year until December 2009 when prices plummeted as the US Dollar started to bounce. The continued rise in stocks indicated an extreme overbought condition and alerted us that a sharp pullback was going to take place. Many traders including myself were surprised that the broad market did not sell down with the metals. In December the market looked and felt ready for a … [visit site to read more]
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| Forex Trading Review For 01/02/2010 Posted: 01 Feb 2010 02:44 AM PST USD Dollar (USD) The Dollar gained versus most majors after better than expected GDP report, which showed growth of 5.7% versus 4.7% expected. Signs of strong economic growth raised speculations the Fed will increase interest rates sooner. NASDAQ and Dow Jones declined by -1.45% and -0.52% respectively as stocks continued to selloff, ending 3 weeks straight of declines. Crude Oil dropped by -1.36% closing at 72.89$ a barrel and Gold (XAU) weakened by -0.45% closing at 1080.90$ an ounce. … [visit site to read more]
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| Economic, News And US Earnings Reports For The Week Feb 1 - 5 2010 Posted: 01 Feb 2010 02:35 AM PST This week is full of economic reports. The most important one is the employment report on Friday. It is expected that unemployment rate will continue to remain close to 10%. In addition, we are going to get a picture on manufacturing and services sector via ISM index and ISM Services Index. Earnings reports will continue to come in. Notable companies this week include: Exxon Mobil (XOM), BP(BP), Dow Chemical (DOW), Emerson (EMR), Kraft Foods (KFT), Manpower (MAN), ACE Limited (ACE), … [visit site to read more]
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| Financial Elite’s Behaviour Has Opened Floodgates For Gold Posted: 01 Feb 2010 02:22 AM PST In spite of philosophical differences in many areas of politics and economics, Ron Paul and Simon Johnson agree that the cosiness that exists between the U. S. Congress and the financial elite has not worked, and is not working, in the best interest of the average American. They both suggest that major changes must be made in that relationship to strengthen the American economy. Is it too late, however, to avoid the repercussions of an even weaker greenback, rising inflation and the opening of … [visit site to read more]
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| Posted: 01 Feb 2010 01:31 AM PST Gazprom faces regular opprobrium for its bullying ways of using energy as a pressure and political tool. Seen by some, mostly Russians, as the symbol of a successful and strong Russia, others see it as a dominating juggernaut, economic right arm of the Kremlin implementing, or should we say, imposing its policies by using energy as a weapon. Just like Louis XIV used to say “L’Etat c’est moi” (I am the State), Gazprom could say the same in light of its commercial power and the … [visit site to read more]
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| Forex Trading: Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI Posted: 01 Feb 2010 01:04 AM PST The EUR traded slightly higher and revisited the session high of 1.3904 after the Final Manufacturing PMI out of the Eurozone was better than expected at 52.7 versus a forecast and prior showing of … [visit site to read more]
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| Video: Boeing’s Dreamliner Passes Stall Test Posted: 01 Feb 2010 01:00 AM PST Boeing completed stall tests for its 787 Dreamliner aircraft, as part of the initial testing program. … [visit site to read more]
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| Bare Cupboards, Cranky People… Posted: 01 Feb 2010 12:44 AM PST Scott Grannis put up a Misery Index update last week and the picture isn't pretty. The misery index is probably worse than shown because the two components of the index, namely headline unemployment and CPI, are arguably understated compared to the 1970s – previous episodes of high misery in US history. Misery comes to Main Street
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| Dissecting The “January Effect” Of Stock Markets Posted: 01 Feb 2010 12:01 AM PST I’ve been meaning to do this ever since the first week of the New Year but decided to wait until January ended with a 3.7% decline. What I’m referring to is this thing about “how January goes, so goes the year”. While the emphasis is logically focused on the first month of the year, the relationship should actually be stated in the inverse. It’s more fun projecting a year out if more fun and makes better copy but the “talking heads” in the media have cause and effect flipped backwards. … [visit site to read more]
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| Markets Don’t Stay Bad Forever: Cycles, Trends And An Oil Refining Example Posted: 31 Jan 2010 11:01 PM PST Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) is selling oil refineries that it had bought a few years ago. We used to have a shortage of domestic refining capacity, but now we have an excess-even though there has not been a new refinery built in the United States in years. Capacity at existing refineries was expanded through new technology, our demand for refined products lagged, and imports of refined products have increased, thanks to expanded capacity overseas. (It used to be that only crude … [visit site to read more]
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| Are China ETFs Deceivingly High? Posted: 31 Jan 2010 10:41 PM PST There has been phenomenal growth in China’s economy and marketplace. But there are some dissenting voices that mark China’s economy and country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) as artificially high. According to Carlton Delfeld for MoneyShow, China’s market is overvalued and vulnerable. Delfeld points to China’s high price-to-earnings ratio of around 50x as a key indicator. China’s residential real estate also appears to be even more overvalued with multiples of 15x to 20x average … [visit site to read more]
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| Further Price Weakness Likely In Real Estate ETFs Posted: 31 Jan 2010 10:29 PM PST Demand for housing has taken a major hit, evident by the record 17% decline in existing home sales recorded in December, and many suggest that downward price pressures in the near future are imminent. According to the most recent Standard & Poor’s (S&P)/Case-Shiller home price index annual report, home prices have gained roughly 4% from their 2009 lows. Although this is promising, and the trends of the Case-Schiller are moving in the right direction, there are plenty of market forces … [visit site to read more]
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| Gold Price To Benefit In The Medium Term From Declining Production Posted: 31 Jan 2010 09:45 PM PST With the bullion price (temporarily?) under pressure - and it really is anybody’s guess how the short term will unfold - a long-term metric such as gold production provides an interesting perspective.
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| Short Stock Picks For Monday 1 February Posted: 31 Jan 2010 09:30 PM PST AK Steel (AKS) AK steel has dropped ferociously from its high of $26.8 and forming a small consolidation zone pattern. It is trading below its 13, 26D MA and this is a bearish signal to me. Any rebound from here would be limited with the MA as immediate resistance. Furthermore, Dow Jones doesn’t seem likely to show any strong move the next few sessions. I would go short on this below $$20.07 which is the base of consolidation zone. Take note of the $18.8 zone which is the 200MA whereby the … [visit site to read more]
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| Could The US Stock Markets Fall From Their Lofty Heights? Posted: 31 Jan 2010 09:01 PM PST Geronimo! As a former army parachutist with a bad head for heights, I recall standing in the doorway of an aircraft while my jumping instructor shouted: “Don’t look down!” He understood that my unease with parachuting combined with the sight of thousands of feet of open air could be enough to elicit panic. Many investors in today’s American stock and bond markets appear to be getting the same advice. While in my predicament, I had a parachute and a rudimentary understanding of how to use it, … [visit site to read more]
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| Further Weakness Expected In Singapore Banking Stocks Posted: 31 Jan 2010 08:21 PM PST The storm last week has hit hard on the STI index (^STI) and the banking sector is at the forefront of the downfall. Technically, all the 3 bank’s charts shows increased weakness and the sell down is ferocious as evident by the high volumes on the long black candlesticks selldown. The last two days of rebound doesn’t seem like strong buyers coming in to support at this price. Any rebound from here may be limited as stock is already trading below 13, 26D MA. Expect further weakness ahead in … [visit site to read more]
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| Fed’s Currency Swap Lines: A BIG Deal For The Dollar Posted: 31 Jan 2010 08:01 PM PST The Fed met this week on monetary policy. It was a bit of a snoozer. What wasn’t a snoozer, however, was what they’ve included in their recent monetary policy statements regarding currencies. Most market participants have been entranced by the Fed’s language about their target interest rates … Will they say they’ll keep rates low for an “extended period” or not? But the real story was buried in the last paragraph of the December Fed statement and reiterated in their latest … [visit site to read more]
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| Stock Market Correction Characterized By Typical Risk Aversion Patterns Posted: 31 Jan 2010 07:01 PM PST The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized in the chart below - a set of numbers indicating heightened risk aversion on the back of growing concerns about sovereign debt issues, the longevity of the global economic recovery and Chinese policy tightening. The only asset classes to end the week in the black were the US dollar (+1.5%) and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) (+0.3%). Source: StockCharts.com
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| Time To Short Goldman Sachs And JPMorgan Chase Shares Posted: 31 Jan 2010 06:01 PM PST If there is one major sector that will suffer like few others in the major decline it is going to be the banks. Stories about banks recommending their employees get private carry permits, and Fed Chairman nearly missing a renomination are going to be common fodder soon enough. In fact, we estimate that banks are going to be even more hated this time around than they ever were during the Great Depression (Ever wonder why your grandparents always told you they hated bankers? You’ll have … [visit site to read more]
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| The Week Ahead: No Sustained Improvement In US Job Market Posted: 31 Jan 2010 05:01 PM PST ISM Manufacturing Index (Monday 1) - The ISM manufacturing index has been above the 50 ceiling since August ‘09, indicating a comeback by the manufacturing sector. In December the index rose to 55.9 - the highest since May ‘06 - highlighting the manufacturing sector’s momentum-gathering recovery at the tail end of the year. We expect the index to slightly edge down in January to 55.3 as the economic outlook is still clouded with uncertainty. However, the outlook for the manufacturing … [visit site to read more]
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2010 04:16 PM PST It’s been said that correlations go to one during a crisis. What that means is when disaster strikes, markets increasingly trade in synch, as fear induces a contagious herding response that leaves many traders unwilling — temporarily, at least — to bet against the crowd.
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| Hungry For Dividends? Here’s A Buffet Of Higher Yields Posted: 31 Jan 2010 04:11 PM PST For investors tired of miserly yields with minuscule annual increases from common stock,let alone trying to squeeze out another 1/8 percent on a cd or money market fund, the selected purchase of preferred stock may be a much better alternative at this time. My criteria for initially screening preferreds is simple. The call price (if applicable) is $25.00, buy at a discount from that price, a company rating that is in the investment grade realm with solvent prospects and the security … [visit site to read more]
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| Forex Trading: Aud AIG Manufacturing Index Came Out Better At 51.0 Posted: 31 Jan 2010 02:50 PM PST Aud AIG manufacturing index came out better at 51.0 from previous at 48.5.
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| Forex Trading: Eur/Usd Continues To Makes New Lows For The Year. Posted: 31 Jan 2010 02:36 PM PST Eur/Usd made a new at 1.3852 from Friday's low of 1.3863. Eur/Usd started to free fall after the better then expected GDP number out of U.S. from a high of 1.3970 to a low 1.3863. Which also drag down the Eur/Jpy to a new low of 125.10 with Usd/Jpy trading around 90.30 area. Over the weekend Usd/Jpy made a new low of 89.87 which again push the Eur/Jpy to a new low for the year traded at 124.59. Right now Eur/Jpy is trading at 125.00, Eur/Usd trading at 1.3860 and Usd/Jpy trading at … [visit site to read more]
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2010 12:17 PM PST As January goes, so goes the year. Does this adage hold water? The market direction for the year is correlated approximately 70% of the time with January’s move. I certainly would not make investment decisions based purely upon that rule of thumb. The rule did not hold in 2009 as major equity averages were down 8% last January. That said, 2009 was anything but a normal year given the massive economic and market supports implemented by Uncle Sam. What rule of thumb would I recommend? … [visit site to read more]
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| Chinese Stock Market Breaks down Posted: 31 Jan 2010 12:09 PM PST The Chinese Shanghai Composite Index - the index that led the turnaround in global stock markets by five months - seems to be in trouble. The Index has just become the first major index to breach its key 200-day moving average, often seen as an indicator of the primary trend. In order to guard against whipsawing one would have to wait a few days for the break to be confirmed. Source: StockCharts.com
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| S&P 500: A Medium-Term Correction Is Just Beginning Posted: 31 Jan 2010 12:01 PM PST Last week’s breakdown led me to believe that a medium-term correction was just beginning. So far this week that opinion has been reinforced by market action. For example, as of last Friday, short-term indicators were very oversold, and a technical bounce was to be expected; however, the market instead has drifted lower, causing me to assume that the oversold condition is being cleared by a decelerated decline rather than a reaction rally. This is bearish behavior, but there is no technical … [visit site to read more]
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| Blindness And Emotion In The Market Posted: 31 Jan 2010 10:30 AM PST Institutional investors are revered because they know more than the little guy. Indeed they always do, but knowledge does not always guarantee them better performance than the market gets as a whole, because in essence they are the market. They are subject to the same blindness and emotion as the rest of us. Humans are predisposed to seek out facts in the present, but we are poor at crafting these into descriptions befitting inflection points, or even during the considerable period of time that … [visit site to read more]
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2010 10:26 AM PST From the highs three weeks ago to the lows of this past week, the S&P500 has slid about 7%. This is not as great as the mid- June to mid- July, 2009 swoon, which saw the S&P500 loose about 10%. So maybe investors are right in not being too concerned about the pace of the current downdraft, and when looking at the sentiment indicators this week, that is exactly what we see: complacency amongst the “dumb money” and indifference by the “smart money”. Despite any short term gains over the … [visit site to read more]
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| Posted: 31 Jan 2010 09:01 AM PST ( click to enlarge ) Acxiom (ACXM) has been on fire the past few weeks, and looks ready to make another upside move. The stock traded heavy volume as it closed up $1.35 on the day. Friday, the stock made new highs, but was not able to close at that level. I’m watching ACXM on Monday and I will buy again once it breaks through Friday's high of $15.86. This stock will move quickly, so watch it closely on Monday. ( click to enlarge )
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| Posted: 28 Jan 2010 05:40 PM PST Morning Highlights Singapore Q4 jobless rate at 2.1% Total lending in Singapore rose to $281.3 billion (US$200.4 billion) in December from $278.2 billion in November and from $275.4 billion in October, central bank data showed on Friday. Corporate Announcements Noble Group … [visit site to read more]
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