Posted: 29 Dec 2009 02:00 PM PST

A day before New Years Eve, there are a few events that will move the currencies on the continued thin trading. Chicago PMI will stand out. Let’s see what’s up for today:

In Europe, M3 Money Supply will be released. The slow growth in the amount of money is also hurting the Euro. Last month’s 0.3% growth is expected to be followed by a 0.4% growth rate this time.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD forecast.

In Switzerland, the KOF Economic Barometer is predicted to edge up from 1.62 to 1.73 points, helping USD/CHF go down.

American Chicago PMI was quite good in recent months. After rising to 56.1 points, it’s predicted to ease and fall back to 55.2.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!

Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free.

5 Favorite Posts of 2009

Posted: 29 Dec 2009 12:00 PM PST

After posting the 15 most popular posts for 2009, here are my choices of my favorite posts. I think that 5 are enough. The list includes a few short words about each of them.

Forex Scams – 7 ways to avoid them – There are still too many crooks out there. I think that this post didn’t get the deserved attention (it didn’t reach the top 15).
Forex Binary Options: The forex market evolves in many ways, and binary options are one of the most outstanding tools. I believe that we’ll see more players in this field in the upcoming months. This post contains ways of using such options for hedging.
Forex to the People: An interview I did with an outsider to the industry. Dekel Shahrur, a person that made ads for forex brokers, brings his interesting insight about the industry.
Currensee – Forex Trading 2.0 – This site is my favorite social networking forex site. The connection to real accounts is its greatest strength. In 2009 we’ve seen many social media ventures, and I’m sure we’ll see all them evolve in 2010. The post linked is the first part of the review.
MeetPips review: This is another forex social network that didn’t get enough attention. While they lack the connection to real accounts, they have a lot to offer. I enjoyed reviewing them.

What did you like most? What do you wish to see on Forex Crunch in 2010?

AUD/USD and USD/CAD broke out on thin volume

Posted: 29 Dec 2009 07:19 AM PST

The Canadian and Australian dollars enjoyed the greenback’s weakness to make breakouts. This happened without any substantial data coming out of these countries, and also on low volume. Positions should be carefully made on these currencies.

In the meantime, EUR/USD and GBP haven’t made impressing moves. That’s another reason to be cautious about these moves.

AUD/USD managed to beak the all-important 0.8950 resistance line. This line worked as strong resistance in the past, and after an initial bounce, the Aussie broke this line and remained above it for a long time.

Contrary to those events, this break should be taken with a grain of salt. The last week of the year, between Christmas and New Years Eve, is probably the slowest in the year. Many traders are on vacation, and the volume of trade is low.

Currently at 0.8980, this breakout could be proven false soon. If AUD/USD does stay above this line, the move can be clearly confirmed only next week, when everybody’s back in business and volumes will be high again.

Check out the AUD USD forecast for more support and resistance lines.

The Canadian dollar has a similar story: USD/CAD broke below 1.04 and now trades at 1.0390, after reaching 1.0367. Also here, an important an well-tested support line was broken – 1.04.

The Canadian dollar showed strength in the past weeks, and had good reasons for it. While other currencies surrendered to the dollar, USD/CAD remained in the same trading range: 1.04 to 1.0750. Now it took one step further and went lower. Also here, the low volume requires great caution.

For a deeper technical analysis of USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.

Forex technikal and fundamental analysis

Dec 30, 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – December 30th 2009

Forex Crunch Forex Daily Outlook – December 30th 2009

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