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- US believes Israel bombed Syria
- Bloomberg article: ‘Abenomics’ Meets Curse of Second 100 Days
- Abe to draw up tax breaks, special economic zones, and more, to encourage business & economic growth
- The man behind Japanese PM Shinzo Abe
- Does technical analysis work, or should it be in the same category as astrology and voodoo?
- ForexLive Americas wrap: Risk brisk on NFP jamboree
- Euro short positions trimmed in latest CFTC data
- Portugal raises the retirement age to 66 from 65
- It’s been an emotional week
- Weekly forex market winners and losers
- One minute you’re a guitar god, the next minute a spider bite takes you out
- AUD/JPY technical analysis: 55dma sparks a rebound
- At the end of a busy week the only thing left to do is party
- Seasonal serendipity in the Dow is a warning sign for stocks
- Fed’s Lacker expects inflation to edge toward target by next year
- So where are we at after busy week?
- European stock close 3 May: All take heart from positive non farm payrolls release
- AUD/USD not done for the day.
- The technical analysis story in EUR/USD couldn’t be any simpler
- Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks 15,000 for the first time
| US believes Israel bombed Syria Posted: 03 May 2013 10:44 PM PDT Details are sketchy but Israel may have launched an air strike in Syria. |
| Bloomberg article: ‘Abenomics’ Meets Curse of Second 100 Days Posted: 03 May 2013 09:32 PM PDT From Bloomberg columnist William Pesek an article on the (relatively) easy ride Abe has had so far and some of the difficult challenges he now faces with economic reform: 'Abenomics' Meets Curse of Second 100 Days On Abe’s ’3 arrows’:
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| Abe to draw up tax breaks, special economic zones, and more, to encourage business & economic growth Posted: 03 May 2013 09:31 PM PDT Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s economic reform agenda rolls on, with Japanese press carrying reports of further reform efforts to assist business and spur economic growth:
Cabinet plans to start finalizing the growth strategy this month and endorse it in mid-June. Abe aims to explain the details at the G8 summit next month (17 and 18 June, in Northern Ireland) Abe team to craft bill to galvanize industry |
| The man behind Japanese PM Shinzo Abe Posted: 03 May 2013 09:30 PM PDT
The Asahi Shimbun has a profile on Japan's chief Cabinet secretary in the Abe administration, Yoshihide Suga, that makes for interesting weekend reading. One of Suga's key roles within Abe's team is keeping the expressions of nationalistic sentiment under control (at least, one can't help thinking, until after the July upper house elections, where Abe hopes to win a majority so he can press forward with his constitutional change goals).
POWER BROKERS: Yoshihide Suga, the man behind Abe’s political comeback |
| Does technical analysis work, or should it be in the same category as astrology and voodoo? Posted: 03 May 2013 07:10 PM PDT From Cam Hui, author on one of my must-read blogs Humble Student of the Markets. In a blog post (Technical analysis as behavioral finance: “Behavioral finance is the school of thought that tries to understand human behavior in the context of what “should” be rational expectations”) Hui links a recent essay he wrote, available here (PDF) in which he reviews the studies and literature examining the efficacy of technical analysis. Hui concludes that ‘Technical analysis = behavioral finance’, that is, TA falls into the realm of modelling human behavior. He says:
Not everyone is going to be convinced, but its a good article to read this weekend. Feedback, as always, welcome. |
| ForexLive Americas wrap: Risk brisk on NFP jamboree Posted: 03 May 2013 01:32 PM PDT Forex headlines for May 3, 2013
It was an ole’ fashioned risk rally with the yen crashing after non-farm payrolls. USD/JPY instantly rallied 100 pips to 99.05 and then spent the rest of the day chopping in a 30 pip range. The reaction was less cohesive in EUR and cable. The initial move was a surge into dollars and both pairs plummeted but bids ahead of the 55-day moving average at 1.3030 in EUR/USD caught the fall and the euro turned around to 1.3150. Later, it drifted back to 1.3115. Cable fell as low as 1.5480 on the kneejerk then ripped to 1.5600. The commodity currencies climbed higher but it was a slower move. Gold was surprisingly quiet, stuck in a tight range and nearly unchanged on the day at $1469. |
| Euro short positions trimmed in latest CFTC data Posted: 03 May 2013 01:14 PM PDT Futures market speculative positioning data from the CFTC as of the close on Tuesday:
Overall long dollar bets are at $24.49 billion compared to $24.94 billion in the previous week. No big notable moves this week.
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| Portugal raises the retirement age to 66 from 65 Posted: 03 May 2013 12:35 PM PDT Civil servants will also be asked to extend their work week to 40 hours from 35 as part of a new round of austerity. |
| Posted: 03 May 2013 12:08 PM PDT |
| Weekly forex market winners and losers Posted: 03 May 2013 11:46 AM PDT For all the news this week, the overall changes weren’t dramatic. The Canadian dollar was the best performer while the yen lagged. Virtually the entirety of the moves came today, so my guess is that the near-term trend will continue in this direction.
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| One minute you’re a guitar god, the next minute a spider bite takes you out Posted: 03 May 2013 11:22 AM PDT Slayer guitar player Jeff Hanneman died today from complications that stemmed from a spider bite. He was 49. I dream of one day shredding the market the way he shreds this track. RIP buddy. |
| AUD/JPY technical analysis: 55dma sparks a rebound Posted: 03 May 2013 10:56 AM PDT AUD/JPY is the top performing trade today, gaining a healthy 188 pips — all of it after the non-farm payrolls report. The daily chart shows that the 55-day moving average has been a key support level since late February. That proved to be the case once again yesterday. The rally today broke a minor downtrend and creates a tidy three-candle reversal.
My takeaway is that the trend is higher and that the pair is headed toward the late-April high of 102.94. That said, the risk-reward on a long might not be right until there is a pullback. A break above 103.00 is a clearer buy signal. The main risk is the RBA decision on Tuesday. Economists are backing away from calls for a rate cut but the OIS market shows it’s a 50/50 decision. I think they will hold so that adds to the case for longs. |
| At the end of a busy week the only thing left to do is party Posted: 03 May 2013 10:06 AM PDT I’m done for the week but will be back on Monday. We’ll have to go some to beat this weeks excitement that’s for sure. I just want to say thanks to all the readers for coming to the site and I hope we do you proud and make the foggy world that is forex a little clearer. I’m bloody shattered and will be recuperating down the pub tomorrow hoping that this great weather holds. Hope you all have a very good weekend where ever you are and I’ll leave you with this old but smashing classic. |
| Seasonal serendipity in the Dow is a warning sign for stocks Posted: 03 May 2013 09:54 AM PDT The punters are mocking “sell in May and go away” today after a 1.2% rally in US stocks but history might be telling them not to be so smug. Let’s go back to 1999. Exactly 14 years ago today — on May 3, 1999 — the Dow broke 11,000 for the first time. Today it broke 15,000 for the first time. Now, like then, an extended rally in stocks began late in the previous year. What happened? The Dow continued 1.05% higher after breaking 10,000, peaked on May 13 and then declined 6.3% to close out the month.  DJIA daily chart 1999 |
| Fed’s Lacker expects inflation to edge toward target by next year Posted: 03 May 2013 09:42 AM PDT Comments from Richmond Fed President (and uberhawk) Jeffrey Lacker:
Wide ranging but not market moving. When a hawk like Lacker isn’t worried about inflation, you know it’s not a problem. |
| So where are we at after busy week? Posted: 03 May 2013 09:03 AM PDT Well it’s been a humdinger for volatility this week. I can’t recall such a data packed week for a good while and it hasn’t disappointed. Now that the last major release has passed I wanted to see if there have actually been any major movement from the ranges we were in before Monday. EUR/USD We opened the week around 1.3050 and have managed to put on nearly a 200 pip range in between falling back to the 1.3050 area three times. The last two has seen 1.3020 become a prominent level. Even through the vol this week the pair remains in a tight 300 pip range as it has for most of April. With all said and done after rate cuts, tape bombs, growth cuts, you name it, it hasn’t really made a blind bit of difference to the fundamental picture and the pair is still rudderless and happy in it’s range. USD/JPY The fabled 100 level held last week and the inevitable fall ensued. We slid all week and that continued into this week but the 97.00 level stopped a rout from taking place. Two major moves, (Mr Kuroda and NFP) saw us wipe out the slide posting two 100+ pip gains. The fickle world of forex showed us once again the the hard work in a move one way can be wiped out in a flash. A close above 99.00 will have the knives out for the big 100 again. GBP/USD We carried on the momentum from the 25 April into this week with sterling posting further gains against the dollar. The downside never really looked at risk and the turnaround in economic figures has kept the bid on. Is there a real recovery taking place or the natural “can’t go down forever” bounce? I think it’s only a matter of time before 1.5600 breaks but that depends on the markets willingness to have a go. Certainly the BOE meeting next week will be the focus where I believe increased QE and a rate cut are off the table given the latest figures. Even so the pair has still only had around a 100 pip range fro all the data and excitement. It’s certainly been an fun filled week and I’m bloody knackered. |
| European stock close 3 May: All take heart from positive non farm payrolls release Posted: 03 May 2013 08:34 AM PDT
Falling yields across the board have kept things looking rosy in Europe but has anything really changed? |
| Posted: 03 May 2013 08:16 AM PDT Despite remaining relatively calm while all around it went potty, AUD/USD is pushing well through 1.0300 to a high of 1.0323. It looks like the touted option at 1.0250 had some part to play as it’s since the expiry that the moves happened. We’re back inside the well touted converging channel all but confirming yet another fake out. Now we are back in, a push higher shouldn’t be ruled out and the interest will be any approach to 1.0400.
As you can see there’s a lot of technical resistance packing in around the 1.0400 level with the 100 & 200 dma at 1.0388/94 and the 50 fib level at 1.0406. With the Chinese growth worries and the RBA rate decision next week there’s a lot to keep bears enticed if we move higher. On the H4 chart today’s move has stopped bang on the 61.8 fib of the 30 April/2 May hi/lo and has drifted back lower.
It still looks well bid going into the weekend and it’ probably not the best time to get on a trade. The focus for the pair will be the early part of next week when we get Aussie retail sales Monday and the the RBA on Tuesday. |
| The technical analysis story in EUR/USD couldn’t be any simpler Posted: 03 May 2013 07:46 AM PDT Lots of traders tend make technical analysis for more difficult than it needs to be. Two lines in EUR/USD tell the whole story today.  EUR/USD daily |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average breaks 15,000 for the first time Posted: 03 May 2013 07:25 AM PDT The DJIA is really for the mom & pop traders but I’m sure headlines about it breaking 15,000 will be splashed all over the US weekend newspapers, and that’s good for consumer sentiment. |
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