Forex Crunch EUR/GBP Enjoys Pound Collapse |
- EUR/GBP Enjoys Pound Collapse
- Forex Daily Outlook – March 3rd 2010
- Oanda Now Supported On Currensee
- Aussie Rides the Rate Hike
| Posted: 03 Mar 2010 12:03 AM PST
EUR/GBP enjoyed the Pound’s collapse to break one technical barrier and bounce off the next one. Update on this interesting cross. The British Pound began the week with a big collapse: GBP/USD fell below 1.50 and bounced off the support line at 1.4770. This collapse was also felt in the Euro. EUR/USD also had a bad start to the week, but maintained the major support line at 1.3423.
The major resistance line was at 0.8840. EUR/GBP broke below this important line at the beginning of the year, and managed to climb above it as GBP/USD went below 1.5350 near the end of last week. Note that the 0.8840 line had an important role in many occasions in the past. Sterling’s collapse sent EUR/GBP above the next hurdle: 0.8970. This move stopped only at 0.9150, a peak at the beginning of December, 3 months ago. EUR/GBP hit this point and fell right back, stabilizing in a range between 0.90 and 0.91. A resolution of the Greek crisis can push the cross higher. A break of 0.9150 will send EUR/GBP to encounter 0.9275, which was a peak during September and October. The next line is 0.9412, which was a peak in mid-October and also in March 2009. This makes it an important line. The next line of resistance appears at 0.95. There were two attempts to break this line at the beginning of 2009, when EUR/GBP was aiming for parity. EUR/GBP parity was never reached, and continues to be a far point in the distance. Looking down, a loss of 1.3423 for EUR/USD will also make it collapse. In such a case, if GBP/USD manages to hold on, the cross, EUR/GBP, might return to towards the 0.8970 line. A break of 0.8970 will lead the way to the strong support line – 0.8840. The next line of support is 0.8650, but a convincing break of 0.8840 is necessary beforehand. This pair continues to supply action and to behave in a relatively predictive way. Support and resistance line are respected in a better manner than many majors. I’ll continue following it… Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Forex Daily Outlook – March 3rd 2010 Posted: 02 Mar 2010 02:00 PM PST
Today’s highlights are the Australian GDP and American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls, which will raise the tension towards Friday’s big event. Let’s see what’s up for today. The low expectations for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls are favorable for the dollar. Here’s my Non-Farm Payrolls preview. Let’s start today’s review: British Nationwide Consumer Confidence starts the day with an expected drop of confidence to 71 points, after reaching a peak at 73. Traders lose confidence in the Pound. Later in Britain, the purchasing managers’ index for the services sector will complete the series of PMI releases with an expected rise to 55 points. For more on the British Pound, check out the GBP/USD forecast. In Australia, GDP is released one day after the rate hike. After a disappointing growth rate of 0.2% in Q3, a much faster growth is predicted now 0.9%. The Aussie was left unexcited by the rate decision. Will it move after the GDP release? For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD forecast. In Japan, Average Cash Earnings are predicted to fall by 1.2% on a yearly basis, less than last time. On the other side of the day, quarterly Capital Spending is predicted to show a drop of 18.1% (annually). The Japanese yen is rather stable. In Europe, German Retail Sales will probably drop by 0.5% after rising last month. Later, the all-European retail sales are predicted to drop as well, by 0.3%. EUR/USD is supported by 1.3423. This is a critical line. For more on the Euro, read Casey Stubbs’ latest analysis and my EUR/USD forecast. In the US, two job indicators are released: Challenger Job Cuts and the ADP Non-Farm Payrolls. The latter, ADP NFP, is expected to show a loss of 13,000, slightly better than last month’s loss of 22K. ADP doesn’t always correctly predict the outcome of the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. Later in the US, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 50.5 to 51. This complements Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which is doing better. The American events aren’t over: the Beige Book will give a wide overview on the American economy and can impact the expectations for the FOMC meeting later in the month. Also note a speech by FOMC member Eric Rosengren. He might give some hints about future policy as well. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. . It’s free. |
| Oanda Now Supported On Currensee Posted: 02 Mar 2010 07:58 AM PST
Oanda, probably the biggest forex broker, is now supported on Currensee. Oanda traders can now share their trades and use Currensee’s social network for free. Hopefully all forex brokers will adopt a transparent policy with social sites such as Currensee. According to some estimates, Oanda is the biggest forex broker, at least in the US. Up to now, Oanda didn’t appear on Currensee’s long list of supported brokers: over 100. As far as I understood, there were some technical issues that took time to resolve. Finally, the engineers on both sides have completed the integration and Oanda traders can now share their trades, see what the community is doing and enjoy the wide variety of tools that Currensee offers traders. Are you an Oanda trader? You’re welcome to try out the platform. Here’s the official press release:
Currensee Forex social network now connects OANDA traders
Provides first real-time API connection for OANDA traders and ability to join Currensee
Boston, MA – March 2, 2010 – Currensee, Inc. (www.currensee.com), the first Forex trading social network connecting traders from around the world based on real-time trades, today announced the first of its kind, real-time support for OANDA utilizing the OANDA API. This secure, automatic connection enables OANDA traders from around the world to join Currensee for free and link their live, OANDA brokerage account. “OANDA provides a transparent and very innovative service to their traders and we’re happy to have them as a partner," said Asaf Yigal Co-founder Currensee. "We've had hundreds of OANDA traders request to join Currensee and access their real-time trade information and we knew OANDA would be a great broker for our network. There are several companies out there using back door approaches to get the data from the OANDA platform but it's not scalable and, most importantly, it’s not real-time. We worked closely with the OANDA team to bring the power of the OANDA data together with real-time trade collaboration." Currensee brings trust and transparency to Forex trading by sharing real-time information on the actual trades its members are making. To join, members create a Currensee profile that connects to their live OANDA brokerage account through the secure API. Traders can continue to execute trades as they always would through their broker and can now measure their performance, share real-time trade data, and collaborate with others in a completely transparent manner on Currensee. “OANDA believes Forex traders benefit from the power of online communities and open access to information," said Paul Jeszenszky Head of Marketing at OANDA. "Currensee has shown a commitment to both and we’re glad our clients now have access to their platform." Currensee welcomes OANDA traders to join the Currensee trading social network today at www.currensee.com/oanda.
About Currensee:
About OANDA OANDA started in 1995 as the first online provider of comprehensive currency exchange information. Since then the OANDA Rate® has become the touchstone for corporations, tax authorities, auditing firms and even central banks. In 2001 OANDA launched FXTrade, the first fully automated online Forex trading platform, and the first to offer immediate execution, support trades and accounts of any size, enable true 24/7 trading, and eliminate the rollover swap by calculating interest by the second. OANDA's innovative technology has enabled it to sustain a large trading volume. Peak performance has been measured at 1.5 million trades a day, far exceeding the volume typically handled through any of the leading global banks or electronic communication networks (ECNs) that trade Forex. OANDA Corporation is a registered Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a member of the National Futures Association (NFA). OANDA Asia Pacific Pte Ltd is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore with a Capital Markets Services license. OANDA Middle East Corporation Ltd. has a license from the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA). Disclosure: I’m affiliated with Currensee. |
| Posted: 02 Mar 2010 07:36 AM PST
The Australian dollar enjoyed the rate hike and approached a technical resistance line. A break of this line depends mostly on the upcoming GDP. Update on technicals and fundamentals of this strong currency. The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the interest rate for the fourth time since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Australia’s Cash Rate stands at 4%, the highest in the Western world. If we exclude Bernanke’s hike of the discount rate, Australia is the only country to raise the rates. This makes the Aussie a popular carry trade. This hike came after a break: the RBA raised the rates 3 times in a row and surprised with a break last time. There were doubts towards this move as well, but Glenn Stevens didn’t disappoint this time. Slow forex reaction Australian news come out during the Australian morning, which is not the peak of forex trading. Still, the Asian session can be volatile as well. But this time, the reaction was mild. AUD/USD made some gains and then retreated back to 0.8980. Only many hours after the release, during the busy London session, AUD/USD made a push above 0.90 and peaked at 0.9060. This is a safe distance from the 0.9090 resistance line mentioned in the AUD/USD forecast. If the Aussie breaks this line, the next line of resistance appears at 0.9170 and it’s rather minor. The big obstacle up the road is 0.9327, which was a huge barrier. Looking down, another greenback storm will find the Aussie supported at 0.8850, followed by 0.8735. The reason for this mild action is that this decision was anticipated and already priced. It was already prices last month, but Stevens didn’t raise the rates at that time and the Aussie fell. Upcoming GDP The Aussie is facing another big publication: GDP for the Q4 of 2009. Also here Australia is unique for not dipping into recession. Australia had only one quarter of economic contraction during the crisis, while other countries had two or more. Two consecutive quarters of contraction define a recession. The economy grew by only 0.2% in Q3 and this fell below expectations. With the employment situation being excellent, the expectations are now for growth of 0.9% in Q4. This accelerated growth rate should push the Aussie higher. After this release, AUD/USD will be mostly influenced by the American Non-Farm Payrolls, and the tension towards them. American NFP could send the Euro down and also impact the EUR/AUD cross that is already at a decade’s low. In recent weeks, the Aussie didn’t enjoy the strength of the economy due to risk aversive trading. With a good GDP, it should continue north. Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
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