Forex Crunch AUD/USD Breaking to Higher Ground |
| AUD/USD Breaking to Higher Ground Posted: 08 Mar 2010 01:28 AM PST
The market took its time to digest last week’s good Australian news, but now it finally made the break above the stubborn resistance line. Update on this strong currency. AUD/USD finally broke above the stubborn resistance line of 0.9090 for the first time after 6 weeks. The pair currently trades at 0.9130, settling above the line.
After dropping below 0.9090 on January 21st, there were immediate attempts to break above this line, but they failed. A similar attempt was made just on Friday, after the American NFP, but the pair stopped exactly at this line. Traders returned to the markets with risk appetite, selling the dollar. This is what made the final push above 0.9090. The next line of resistance is at 0.9170. It served as a support line at the beginning of the year, before the Aussie fell to the lower range that it just escaped. Further above, 0.9327 continues to be the strongest resistance line – being tested many times between October and January, and only breached once for reaching the 2009 high of 0.94. Strong Australian fundamentals The Aussie enjoyed two great releases last week. The first was the rate decision – Glenn Stevens lifted the Australian interest rate for the fourth time to 4%. Although this was generally expected, it still widens the big gap between Australia and the rest of the world. The second event was also predicted – the Australian economy grew by 0.9% in Q4. Also here, this is a great growth rate, and it shows the strength of the economy. The Aussie reacted cautiously to these events, but now it finally made the break. Employment ahead This week’s major release comes from the job market – Australia is expected to see a small gain in jobs and a stable unemployment rate – 5.3%. In the past four months, the employment figures beat economists’ expectations again and again. Two months ago, great figures weren’t enough to fight the dollar and the strong resistance line of 0.9327. Will this week mark a breakout of the Aussie? We’ll see… Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
| Posted: 08 Mar 2010 01:03 AM PST
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| Forex Daily Outlook – March 8th 2010 Posted: 07 Mar 2010 12:00 PM PST
The week starts without major releases. German industrial production and Swiss retail sales will stand out. Here’s the daily outlook. Note that the weak, yet expected Non-Farm Payrolls will still echo in the markets. The dollar enjoyed some strength against the majors last week but lost ground to the commodity currencies. OK, let’s see the events: Japan starts the day with a few figures: Current Account is expected to rise to a surplus of 1.25 trillion yens. The Economy Watchers Sentiment is predicted to edge up from 38.8 to 40.2 points. In Switzerland, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. This figure rarely surprises. The more important release is Retail Sales – after a leap of 4.7%, a strong rise of 2.4% is expected this time. In Europe, the Sentix Investor Confidence is expected to tick up from -8.2 to -7.6, still in the negative zone, showing pessimism. German Industrial Production is expected to rise by 1.1% after sliding by 2.6% last month. This event usually rocks the Euro. For more on the Euro’s week, read the EUR/USD forecast. I also recommend catching up with Casey Stubbs’ analyses. In Britain, MPC member Kate Barker will speak in a conference. Barker is about to step down from position soon, so she might feel more free to speak. The Pound has seen better days than these. For the events and a technical analysis, check out GBP/USD forecast. For those of you trading the loonie, an important indicator is due today: Housing Starts are expected to remain unchanged at 186K. Will USD/CAD continue towards parity? There are technical barriers on the way. Check out the USD/CAD forecast for more. That’s it for today. Happy forex trading! Want to see what other traders are doing in real accounts? Check out Currensee. It’s free. |
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