Mar 24, 2010

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions


Jason Ayres On “Spotting Currency Trends For FX Options”, Part 1

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 09:00 AM PDT

Join Jason Ayres, president and founder of Optionsource.net, as he demonstrates how to identify opportunities in the currency markets. … [visit site to read more]


Jason Ayres On “Spotting Currency Trends For FX Options”, Part 2

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 08:59 AM PDT

Join Jason Ayres, president and founder of Optionsource.net, as he demonstrates how to identify opportunities in the currency markets. … [visit site to read more]


Jason Ayres On “Spotting Currency Trends For FX Options”, Part 3

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 08:58 AM PDT

Join Jason Ayres, president and founder of Optionsource.net, as he demonstrates how to identify opportunities in the currency markets. … [visit site to read more]


Jason Ayres On “Spotting Currency Trends For FX Options”, Part 4

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 08:57 AM PDT

Join Jason Ayres, president and founder of Optionsource.net, as he demonstrates how to identify opportunities in the currency markets. … [visit site to read more]


Jason Ayres On “Spotting Currency Trends For FX Options”, Part 5

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 08:56 AM PDT

Join Jason Ayres, president and founder of Optionsource.net, as he demonstrates how to identify opportunities in the currency markets. … [visit site to read more]


Pharmaceutical ETFs Likely Real Winner Of New Health Care Law

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:41 AM PDT

Now that the historic Health Care Bill has been signed into law by President Obama, drug makers are likely to reap all the benefits and for good reason.

The overhaul of the healthcare system will likely add to the revenues of Big Pharma companies.  From a mere quantity perspective, the reform is expected to provide insurance coverage to more individuals, hence giving more people the ability to pay for prescription medication and pushing sales volumes up significantly.

From a competition … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: Eurozone Industrial Orders

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:04 AM PDT

Eurozone Industrial Orders m/m came in at -2.0%, weaker than the 2.0% estimate.
Y/Y came in at 7.0%, weaker than the 13.9% expected.
Eur/Usd just made new lows on heels of this negative data as the pair traded down to … [visit site to read more]


Oil And Natural Gas Outlook: An Extreme Situation Emerges

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:01 AM PDT

The last time this happened, investors had the chance to pocket 83% gains in about four months’ time.

They could have done it safely. This has nothing to do with the overall market direction.

Best of all, it’s consistently lucrative. It has paid off an average of 112%.

But it doesn’t happen often. This opportunity has only arisen three times in the last five years.

Right now it’s about to happen all over again. Here’s the set up.

Physics 101: Energy is Energy

Oil prices have … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: Eurozone PMI

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:07 AM PDT

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.3, stronger than the 54.1 expected.
Services PMI came in at 53.7, stronger than the 52.0
These strong numbers don't help the Euro as they normally would due to unrest among in some EU nations, namely Greece. Eur/Usd continues its slide, now trading at … [visit site to read more]


Bloomberg Poll: Americans Negative On Business And Economy

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:01 AM PDT

A Bloomberg National Poll of 1002 people over the last three days is quite revealing. (The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%)

Almost across the board, those polled, who were randomly selected, are more negative than positive or even neutral on a variety of key topics. Rather than my adding editorial comments, let’s look at the data:

The Value of Your Investments

A lot better 6%
A little better 25%
Same 22%
A little worse 29%
A lot worse 17%
Not Sure 1%

The Overall U.S. … [visit site to read more]


New Zealand Current Account Deficit Fall Reflects Stronger Earnings

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:50 AM PDT

New Zealand’s current account data surprised some with the current account deficit for the year through December 2009 coming in at -NZ$5.47 billion versus consensus estimates of -NZ$3.33 billion, and the September quarter figure of -NZ$5.9 billion. The comparable figure in December 2008 was -NZ$15.97 billion.

Seasonally adjusted the current account balance during the December quarter was -NZ$3.11 billion, versus the small positive of NZ$0.04 billion in the September quarter of … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: Gbp/Usd Testing Resistance At 1.5000

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:28 AM PDT

As stated in an earlier post, Gbp/Usd could run into resistance that it is encountering at 1.5000. If it holds look for the pair to find light support at 1.4980, on its way down to 1.4950-60. If it can break above 1.5045-50 would be next level of … [visit site to read more]


The Technical Picture Indicates A Short And Sharp Fall In The EUR/USD Currency Pair

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:01 AM PDT

Monday evening on Fast Money, we were asked if the short Euro trade was over - our answer was a definitive…NO! The primary driver of our confidence is the flawed structure of the current plan (if 'no action’ can be called a plan) and the flawed structure within the Eurozone. The two flaws are a lack of an explicit contingent financing plan and the inability of the EU to enforce such a plan. These two flaws are interacting with each other to create a vicious downward spiral.

Our short … [visit site to read more]


Video: Google Moves Chinese Search Engine To HK

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:00 AM PDT

Google shut down its portal in mainland China and started rerouting searches to its Hong Kong site. … [visit site to read more]


When Is Diversification Important?

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 12:25 AM PDT

There has been some minor buzz in the blogosphere over a study showing that the benefits of international equity diversification are falling (see comments from Paul Kedrosky and FT Alphaville). Moreover, I recently had a discussion with another investment professional about issues surrounding portfolio construction and diversification. His comment to me was a textbook one: "I would rather try and get… reduction in volatility through more diversification."

Diversification when you need … [visit site to read more]


Does Your Commodity ETF Own Oil Futures Or Oil Stocks?

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 12:01 AM PDT

“The volatility of the last two years has investors searching for investment vehicles that can help diversify their portfolios from the wild swings of the stock market. The old-school method often involves buying stocks in different asset classes (small, large, etc.), but even that would not have protected your portfolio in the treacherous recession of 2008,” Matthew McCall Reports From Investopedia.

McCall goes on to say, “An asset class that has attracted great fanfare the last … [visit site to read more]


Under The Microscope: Spinoff ETF (CSD)

Posted: 24 Mar 2010 12:00 AM PDT

In the quest for alpha, investors pursue a wide variety of strategies designed to isolate stocks poised to deliver excess returns. While some investors rely on quant models for this endeavor, others use more descriptive characteristics to filter the universe of equities. One particular group of companies has a history of beating the market, but has gone largely unnoticed by investors: those participating in spinoffs. These transactions occur when a company believes that the sum of its parts is … [visit site to read more]


Sex And Trade Surplus In China

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 11:01 PM PDT

Concerns over the global imbalance resulting from large Chinese current account surplus and large U.S. current account deficits has many economists and politicians locked in heated debates. Some experts, including Paul Krugman, propose measures focusing on changing China’s exchange-rate policy and trade barriers.

Indeed, the household savings rate in China went from about 16% of disposable income in 1990 to over 30% today. The comparable rate in the U.S. was about 3% before the crisis, … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: Eur/Usd Falls On “grave Conerns” With Some Members

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 10:26 PM PDT

Eur/Usd sold off to 1.3406, seemingly reacting to a report that EU Finance Ministers have "grave concerns" with Portugal, Italy, Spain amd … [visit site to read more]


Comparison Of The VIX From 2007 Stock Market Peak To Present

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 10:01 PM PDT

This is a third in an unexpected series of posts on the similarities/differences between the October 2007 stock market peak and the current rally to new recovery highs.

Thank you to another astute reader who mentioned that the VIX - the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) - is at the same level it was at the October 2007 peak.

If you ask me, these comparisons have moved from “Hmm, that’s interesting” to “Ok, this is getting weird.”

Let’s take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) during … [visit site to read more]


Daily ETF Roundup: DBA Falls, EPP Rises

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 09:26 PM PDT

Equity markets trended higher on Tuesday as major indexes finished the day up nearly 1%. The Dow finished up more than 100 points to put the benchmark at a fresh 17-month high, as component Caterpillar soared higher by over 4%. This continues a remarkable rally that has seen the index move higher in 10 of the last 12 sessions. "The recent uptick has been more a function of less bad news rather than a lot of good news," said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group in an article for … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: USD/JPY In Triangle Consolidation Within Downtrend

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 09:01 PM PDT

Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has been in a trading range consolidation for around two weeks now. This consolidation has taken the form of a symmetrical triangle or pennant type of formation, which is essentially a converging consolidation, and occurs within the context of an overall long-term downtrend. A strong break of the chart pattern in either direction should have important consequences.

A break to the upside would bring price up to approach the upper … [visit site to read more]


U.S. Financial Markets Back To Pre-Crisis Levels

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 08:31 PM PDT

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) closed at 16.35 Tuesday, the lowest closing value since May 15, 2008 and the second lowest closing value since July 2007, more than two-and-a-half years ago (see top chart above). The VIX has closed at or below 17.0 for five consecutive days, for the first time since July 2007.

The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index (BFCIUS) has closed above or close to 0.50 for the last nine days, for the first time since June 2007 (see bottom chart … [visit site to read more]


Three Things Your Investments Must Do

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 08:01 PM PDT

Yet another Federal Reserve meeting is now behind us, and I’m wondering why I even bother to read the releases anymore.

After all, Bernanke & Co. pretty much say the same thing month in and month out now - namely, that they’re going to “keep rates low for an extended time.”

I mean, really!

It’s obvious that Washington is dead set against those of us who use money conservatively and try to save for our own futures …

They’re doing everything in their power to make us follow … [visit site to read more]


America’s Hidden Inflation And How You’re Getting Screwed

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 08:01 PM PDT

Inflation is dead, right?

If we believe The Wall Street Journal, all we had to do was read Monday’s edition to learn this fact. The WSJ wrote, Inflation is Dead? Long Live Long-Term Treasurys:
The Treasury Department is selling $118 billion in debt this week, just as Congress tackled a $940 billion health-care bill over the weekend, shining the spotlight on the U.S.’s hefty fiscal commitments.

Budget-deficit and debt levels are forecast to worsen: Total deficits including interest … [visit site to read more]


Stock Picks For Wednesday 24 March: Hemispherx Biopharma, GigaMedia, Isis Pharmaceuticals

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:42 PM PDT

( click to enlarge )

Hemispherx Biopharma (HEB) - The technical chart is giving clear clues on market makers’ intentions. The 50 SMA and 0,711 level has been well supported during Tuesday’s session. If 0,752 - 0,771 level is broken expect an upward trend continuation to 0,832. HEB is gaining momentum slowly. The delivery volumes are picking indicating some fund’s action.

( click to enlarge )

GigaMedia (NASDAQ:GIGM) - Bulls are now attacking the 13-day moving average, a break … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: EUR/GBP Failing At Resistance

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:39 PM PDT

With negative Euro sentiment finally catching up to negative bias against the Sterling, we see the EUR/GBP pair continuing to hold trendline resistance. The Sterling could have more of the negativity already 'baked in the cake' and the Euro could have a ways to go before the bulls ride comes to an end. Looking at the chart below we see the pair could find support at the 21 week moving average, however a break of that could bring the 86 cent handle into … [visit site to read more]


Forex Trading: EUR/USD Testing Support

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:31 PM PDT

The Euro has been under pressure this Asian session, making new lows for March but has still been unable to penetrate the late February lows (1.3445 low for the session.) After being unable to close above the 21 day moving average last week, the pressure has continued to mount against the Euro, even in the face what seems to be negative economic sentiment surrounding the revised US health plan just passed in Congress. The USD has outperformed against the Euro more so than any other major pair … [visit site to read more]


What You Need To Know About Technical Analysis With Chartered Market Technician Cory Mitchell

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:01 PM PDT

Cory Mitchell is a Chartered Market Technician and Founder of Vantage Point Trading

Given the plethora of Technical Analysis indicators and tools available today, we are often left wondering if certain technical indicators work better for certain asset classes. To find out, we reached out to Cory Mitchell, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. I’ve been following Cory’s astute analysis of the forex markets for a few months now … [visit site to read more]


Video: The Day Ahead: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:00 PM PDT

The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]


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