Daily Markets - Financial News And Opinions

Bullish Breakout In Gold
Why I’m Still Bearish On Copper
Forex Trading: Euro-zone Revised GDP Q/q
Global Reserve Currency: Chinese Yuan Vs. The U.S. Dollar
Video: Fed Proposes Additional Credit Card Rules
Inflation AND Deflation
Can The Stock Market Keep Going Higher?
Lending, Saving And Consumption - A Tale Of US Deleveraging
Oppenheimer ARS Investor Rails On NY AG Cuomo Regarding OPCO-ARS Settlement
US Stock Market Internals Warn Of Sudden Reversal
Jobs, Greece And Manufacturing Have ETFs Surging
Hedge Fund Collusion To Pound Euro?
Video: The Day Ahead: U.S. Pending Home Sales

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 03:50 AM PST

Price action on spot gold, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a significant bullish move in breaking out above the key 1130 price region, establishing a new 6-week high. This occurs within the context of a long-term uptrend. Despite a false breakdown of the longstanding uptrend support line in early February, gold has gone on to respect the trendline in late February, leading to the current bullishness.

On breaking out above 1130 resistance yesterday, a key further upside resistance … [visit site to read more]

Why I’m Still Bearish On Copper

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 03:02 AM PST

The “bear case” for copper I presented last week was punched in the gut.

The punch came from the enormous earthquake that struck the South American nation of Chile on Sunday.

Chile is by far the world’s largest-copper producing nation. It produces around 30% of the world’s copper. If Chile quit mining copper, it’d be like if Saudi Arabia and the U.S. both quit producing oil.

Traders showed their concern by sending the price of copper up 4.6% on Monday to $3.43… a huge move. But … [visit site to read more]

Forex Trading: Euro-zone Revised GDP Q/q

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PST

The market had a muted reaction to the revised euro zone GDP which came in as expected at 0.1%. The EUR/USD is currently trading at … [visit site to read more]

Global Reserve Currency: Chinese Yuan Vs. The U.S. Dollar

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 01:01 AM PST

The practice of accumulating dollar reserves by the central banks has become more pronounced after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when currency speculators hastened a balance of payments crisis in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea by demanding dollars for local currency, depleting the central banks’ dollar reserves.

Fast forward 13 years later, the dollar’s status as the world’s preferred reserve currency has come into question amid a ballooning budget deficit that keeps the U.S. … [visit site to read more]

Video: Fed Proposes Additional Credit Card Rules

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 01:00 AM PST

The Federal Reserve announced additional proposals to increase consumer protections against credit card issuers. … [visit site to read more]

Inflation AND Deflation

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 12:48 AM PST

Over at his blog, Tim Duy is worried about the risks of persistently low inflation or deflation and asks if the Fed is underestimating the macro risks of deflation. He concludes that:

[T]he Fed did find ways to maneuver around the zero bound constraint this time, I am more concerned with the next recession than this one. Recent history suggests that each recession necessitates lower interest rates than the last. I would prefer to pull the economy up to a point where we had some distance from … [visit site to read more]

Can The Stock Market Keep Going Higher?

Posted: 04 Mar 2010 12:01 AM PST

Stocks seem to have started their way back up - I think the Dow Jones just went positive for 2010. The sell off of January seems to have worn off in February and we are getting close to making new highs.

It looks like the long term chart is showing some price support. I have used the Volume-by-Price indicator before and I see something interesting. Any new high will likely see a lack of resistance up to the 1200 level or so.

During the rally, different Vol/Price levels filled … [visit site to read more]

Lending, Saving And Consumption - A Tale Of US Deleveraging

Posted: 03 Mar 2010 11:01 PM PST

Here’s a brief update on where US bank lending is at. The theme of the day for this is basically deleveraging. Bank credit is on most counts still declining on a year on year % basis, a weekly net new loans basis, and on an absolute basis. It’s still very much a story of no credit growth.

It’s not a surprise either, lending conditions are still pretty harsh, there are still bank failures popping up, and consumers and businesses are still (but maybe to a lesser degree?) struggling - so … [visit site to read more]

Oppenheimer ARS Investor Rails On NY AG Cuomo Regarding OPCO-ARS Settlement

Posted: 03 Mar 2010 10:01 PM PST

How often do politicians declare victory while innocent victims remain baffled, bewildered, and befuddled as they hang onto the pangs of defeat? How often do politicians look to score political points while not delivering real progress let alone justice for those victimized by fraud? Regrettably, this dynamic plays out all too often.

I witness it in a letter sent today by an innocent investor victimized by the fraudulent distribution of auction-rate securities by Oppenheimer Holdings. … [visit site to read more]

US Stock Market Internals Warn Of Sudden Reversal

Posted: 03 Mar 2010 09:01 PM PST

Yet again, we’re seeing a situation where we have a multi-day decline in the three-key market internals when compared with the price of the S&P 500 or SPY ETF.

That sets up a major non-confirmation and increases that odds that we’ll see a price reversal/retracement to test lower levels, barring any unforeseen bullish news here.

We’re seeing the 5-min SPY (or SPX or @ES) chart when compared with Breadth, TICK, and Volume Differential.

For more information on these … [visit site to read more]

Jobs, Greece And Manufacturing Have ETFs Surging

Posted: 03 Mar 2010 08:01 PM PST

Investors continue to get comfort from a spate of reports, sending stocks and exchange traded funds (ETFs) higher - albeit slightly. Thank budget-stabilizing plans from Greece, non-manufacturing sector data and and a smaller-than-anticipated drop in job losses.

At last, something resembling a resolution has emerged out of Greece. The government gave the go-ahead to a round of tax increases and pay cuts for public employees as part of what’s being billed as an “austerity plan.” The moves … [visit site to read more]

Hedge Fund Collusion To Pound Euro?

Posted: 03 Mar 2010 07:01 PM PST

Meeting industry friends and colleagues for dinner, drinks, and market talk is standard fare. In fact, I would say it is good business as it is important to develop relationships within the industry.

That said, the development of these professional relationships and the interaction amongst the professionals should never come at the expense of professional ethics and integrity. I did witness more than a handful of times individuals from different shops on both the buy-side and the … [visit site to read more]