Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• Bundesbank says Weidmann interview conducted June 29
• Update: CIPS: UK Manufacturing Sector Hits 38 Month Low July
• CIPS: UK Manufacturing Sector Hits 38-Month Low In July
• Weidmann: ECB mustn’t overstep its’ mandate
• UK July MFG PMI sharply lower at 45.4 from 48.4 in June
• Italian 10 year govt bond yield falls 12 bps to 5.96%
• Showdown looms for ECB, Germans
• GERMANY DATA: June machine orders -1%; May -6%; VDMA.
• Eurozone July final MFG PMI 44.0
• Germany July final manufacturing PMI 43.0
• AUD/USD grinds higher
• French Final July Mfg PMI falls to 43.4
• Italy July manufacturing PMI 44.3
• France Still Counting On 0.3% GDP Growth This Year: Fin Min
• BOE Offers Unltd Usd In 7-day Repo At 0.64%
• Spain July manufacturing PMI 42.3, up from 41.1 in June
• DBJ: Japan FY12 Capex Seen +12.2% Y/Y, Highest in 6 Years
• Barriers to watch for…
• Germany Minister Says Greece Might Have To Leave EMU: Press
• EUR/USD ticks little higher as European trade gets underway

Bundesbank says Weidmann interview conducted June 29 Posted: 01 Aug 2012 02:00 AM PDT So everyone’s asking “why so long in releasing it” Conspiracy theorists will be having a field day……

Update: CIPS: UK Manufacturing Sector Hits 38 Month Low July Posted: 01 Aug 2012 02:00 AM PDT –Adds detail to version transmitted at 0841 GMT -UK CIPS July Manufacturing PMI 45.4: Markit/Reuters LONDON (MNI) – UK manufacturing activity hit a 38-month low in July, with the sector contracting sharply. The headline Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply index from Reuters plunged to 45.4 in July from a revised 48.4 in June, its lowest reading since May 2009 and well below analysts’ median forecast for a 48.0 outturn. Export orders plunged, posting their fastest fall since February 2009. The first of the UK Q3 PMIs shows manufacturing getting off to a very poor start and suggests it could well act as a drag on the expected rebound in economic activity in Q3. The fit between the CIPS surveys and the official growth data, however, has not been tight. Markit said its Q2 PMIs showed suggested “a slight 0.1% fall in GDP growth”, but the official data showed a much sharper contraction of 0.7% on the quarter. Markit said the fall in export new orders in July was not only due to Eurozone weakness. “The Eurozone market remained the principal drag on new export orders, although there were also some reports of a decline in new business received from Asia,” it said. The fall in manufacturing output in July was the steepest for 40 months. “Underlying demand remained weak and market conditions highly competitive. Coming on the back of a 1.4% decline in manufacturing production in the second quarter, it looks like the sector remains a major drag on the overall economy,” Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at Markit, said. George Buckley, senior UK economist at Deutsche Bank, noted that the slowdown in manufacturing has been very widespread in July. The PMIs have “been slowing across the globe; of the 16 manufacturing PMIs for July published so far 11 of them are below 50 and 10 reported a fall in July,” Buckley said in a note. -London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491; email:drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

CIPS: UK Manufacturing Sector Hits 38-Month Low In July Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:50 AM PDT -UK CIPS Jul Manufacturing PMI 45.4: Markit/Reuters LONDON (MNI) – UK manufacturing activity hit a 38-month low in July, with the sector contracting sharply. The headline Markit/Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply index from Reuters plunged to 45.4 in July from a revised 48.4 in June, its lowest reading since May 2009 and well below analysts’ median forecast for a 48.0 outturn. Export orders plunged, posting their fastest fall since February 2009. The first of the UK Q3 PMIs shows manufacturing getting off to a very poor start and suggests it could well act as a drag on the expected rebound in economic activity in Q3. The fit between the CIPS surveys and the official growth data, however, has not been tight. Markit said its Q2 PMIs showed suggesed “a slight 0.1% fall in GDP growth”, but the official data showed a much sharper contraction of 0.7% on the quarter. –London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491; email:drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

Weidmann: ECB mustn’t overstep its’ mandate Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:33 AM PDT Governments overestimate ECB possibilities Bundesbank has greater say at ECB than some others Hard to imagine political union in near future Bundesbank will stand up for what it believes in Bundesbank stands for stable monetary union Bloomberg reporting. EUR/USD slips back below 1.2300 on the comments, presently at 1.2295. Earlier reports had buy orders clustered 1.2270/80, sell stops below there. Wolfman pins The Destroyer to the canvas……….

UK July MFG PMI sharply lower at 45.4 from 48.4 in June Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:30 AM PDT Also well below Reuters poll of 48.5, and the lowest reading since May 2009. Output index also plummets to 43.3 from 51.9, Cable sinks back over 30 pips on the release to day’s lows around 1.5650

Italian 10 year govt bond yield falls 12 bps to 5.96% Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:22 AM PDT Hope springs a turtle…. EUR/USD sits at 1.2323.  More buy stops seen through 1.2340.

Showdown looms for ECB, Germans Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:14 AM PDT Draghi The Destroyer vs Wolfman Weidmann Brought to you by WWF….

GERMANY DATA: June machine orders -1%; May -6%; VDMA. Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:10 AM PDT GERMANY DATA: June machine orders -1%; May -6%; April -11%: VDMA – VDMA: June domestic machine orders +3% y/y;foreign orders -3% – VDMA: April-June total orders -6% y/y;domestic -7%; foreign -5% – See Mainwire for more details

Eurozone July final MFG PMI 44.0 Posted: 01 Aug 2012 01:01 AM PDT Lowest since June 2009 and  below a flash reading of 44.1 and June’s reading of 45.1 Final output down as well to 43.4 from  44.7 in June and a flash reading of 43.6. Final new orders also  down to 42.8 from flash of 42.9 and June’s reading of 43.5

Germany July final manufacturing PMI 43.0 Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:54 AM PDT Down from 45.0 in June and also down from flash read of 43.3.

AUD/USD grinds higher Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:53 AM PDT Nudged up to 1.0529 recently after post Chinese PMI lows of  1.0464 in the Asian session and looks set to chew through offers ahead of the 1.0550 barrier.  Real money have been the main buyers over the last 24 hours. EUR/AUD is again struggling to  bounce convincingly with the late Friday low of 1.1735 proving to be stubborn resistance on the upside for the cross.  There’s been some murmurs in the market that funds are again selling this pairing along with sovereigns. EUR/AUD’s  now at a day’s low around 1.1704 with AUD/USD nudging the day’s high

French Final July Mfg PMI falls to 43.4 Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:50 AM PDT From Flash reading of 43.6 and June’s final reading of 45.2 Now at lows last seen back in May 2009

Italy July manufacturing PMI 44.3 Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:43 AM PDT Down from 44.6 in June and pretty much in line with Reuters’ median forecast of 44.2.

France Still Counting On 0.3% GDP Growth This Year: Fin Min Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:40 AM PDT PARIS (MNI) – Despite dark clouds on the horizon, the French government is sticking to its projection for 0.3% GDP growth this year, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said Wednesday. In late June, the national statistics institute Insee forecast another flat GDP reading for 2Q and a very gradual recovery of 0.1% in 3Q and 0.2% in 4Q, enough to assure an average annual gain of 0.4%. Since then, however, business morale has deteriorated further, dragging down Insee’s overall sentiment index to a 34-month low in July. This suggests that even if a contraction in activity is averted in the first half, the second is starting on weaker footing. In a radio interview, Moscovici conceded that he was “worried” about growth, but defended the government’s standing forecast as “cautious” and raised hopes for an improvement in Eurozone prospects. “What is happing in Europe – the light in the tunnel, the reorientation of European construction, a Europe more concentrated on growth – is very important,” he said. The minister said that the government was not planning a hike in the broad-based CSG tax on earnings and investment revenues for next year’s budget. However, he acknowledged that a CSG hike is “one option” in the government’s strategy to make domestic producers “more competitive” by reducing the business and labor taxes which current finance social outlays. –Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; Email: stephen@marketnews.com. [TOPICS: MFFBU$,M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]

BOE Offers Unltd Usd In 7-day Repo At 0.64% Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:20 AM PDT LONDON ((MNI) – The Bank Of England said Wednesday it was offering an unlimited supply of U.S. dollars in 7-day operations. The settlement date on the 7-day op was August 2 maturing August 9 2012. The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to be set at 0.64%. –London Bureau; Tel: +442076341655; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Spain July manufacturing PMI 42.3, up from 41.1 in June Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:14 AM PDT Quite a bit better than Reuter’s median forecast of 40.5. Meanwhile,  manufacturing employment index 41.5 versus 41.8 in June, fastest rate of contraction since December 2009 EUR/USD extends rally to session high 1.2327.

DBJ: Japan FY12 Capex Seen +12.2% Y/Y, Highest in 6 Years Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:10 AM PDT TOKYO (MNI) – The Development Bank of Japan on Wednesday forecast that combined investment in equipment by major firms in the domestic market will rise 12.2% on year in fiscal 2012, highest since its +12.9% projection for fiscal 2006. This compares with the DBJ’s forecast for +7.3% for fiscal 2011 released about a year ago. The actual capital investment in fiscal 2011 fell 2.1% on year, posting the fourth straight yearly drop after -2.5% in fiscal 2010. The bank forecast combined capex will fall 5.9% in fiscal 2013. In fiscal 2012, manufacturers’ capital investment is expected to rise 19.1%, compared with +8.6% for non-manufacturers, the bank said. Carmakers will raise capex to meet growing demand for low-emission vehicles while chemical firms plan to boost production capacity for solar batteries, it said. Among non-manufacturers, the transportation industry is expected to enhance delivery systems and infrastructure while mobile phone carriers are expanding relay stations for smartphone networks, said the DBJ. Meanwhile, capital investment by Japanese firms in overseas markets is forecast by the DBJ to rise 31.5% on year in fiscal 2012, with the pace of growth decelerating from its fiscal 2011 projection for +49.2% and the actual result of +42.2% The bank releases its capital investment projections once a year by surveying about 3,000 major firms capitalized at Y1 billion or above in Japan. tokyo@marketnews.com ** Market News International Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 ** [TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$,MT$$$$]

Barriers to watch for… Posted: 01 Aug 2012 12:08 AM PDT Not a lot of change from yesterday to be honest…  EUR/USD: 1.2400 USD/JPY: 77.50 AUD/USD: 1.0550 EUR/GBP: 0.7750, 0.7875 USD/CAD 1.0000

Germany Minister Says Greece Might Have To Leave EMU: Press Posted: 31 Jul 2012 11:50 PM PDT BERLIN (MNI) – Greece will no have no alternative to leaving the Eurozone if it gets no further fiscal aid, German Transport Minister Peter Ramsauer said in an interview with German ARD public television on Wednesday. Ramsauer said Germany should stop contributing to the aid for Greece if the IMF ends its help for the indebted country. “Then Greece will likely have no other choice” but to leave the Eurozone, the minister asserted. He warned, though, not to expect that all problems will be resolved once Greece has left the Eurozone. Ramsauer is a member of the Bavarian CSU, the sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s center-right CDU. German Economics Minister Philipp Roesler told German ARD public television last month that Greece will most likely not be able to meet the goals agreed with its international lenders. “I want to say this here very clearly: if Greece does not meet its obligations, there can be no further payments to Greece,” he stressed. In that case, Greece might come to the conclusion that it would be better to leave the Eurozone, said Roesler, who is also vice chancellor in Merkel’s government and head of the free market-orientated FDP, the junior partner in the government coalition. “I think that for many experts, for the FDP, and for me, a Greek exit from the Eurozone has long since lost its horror,” he added. –Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$,MFX$$$,MT$$$$]

EUR/USD ticks little higher as European trade gets underway Posted: 31 Jul 2012 11:20 PM PDT Tagged on about 20 pips since I first sat down, presently at 1.2310. Sources report US bank notable buyer of the EUR/JPY cross in recent trade, which has helped support EUR/USD. The cross is up at 96.20 from 95.85 when I arrived. Back with EUR/USD, sell orders seen clustered 1.2320/30, buy stops through 1.2340. UPDATE:  Just being told some buy stops through 1.2330 as well. So through 1.2330 AND 1.2340!!!    OOOOH I say, how exciting.

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