Sep 14, 2011

Forex Crunch EUR/USD Sep. 14 – Rolling Up on Uptrend Support as Greek Resolution Awaited

Forex Crunch EUR/USD Sep. 14 – Rolling Up on Uptrend Support as Greek Resolution Awaited


EUR/USD Sep. 14 – Rolling Up on Uptrend Support as Greek Resolution Awaited

Posted: 14 Sep 2011 02:40 AM PDT

Euro dollar is slowly rolling up above downtrend support, as the situation in Greece remains tense, and the Chinese hopes are gone. The US calendar is becoming busy. Will we see a breakout out of range? Or will the consolidation continue?

Here's a quick update on technicals, fundamentals and what's going on in the markets.

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GBP/USD Makes Dead Cat Bounce on Smaller Rise in Jobless Claims

Posted: 14 Sep 2011 01:35 AM PDT

Claimant Count Change rose by 20.3K in Britain in August, less than around 35K that was expected. This smaller growth in jobless claims helped the pound jump against the greenback, but there’s little reason for celebration. This is still a big rise in claims.

The unemployment rate for July remained unchanged at 7.9%, as expected.  GBP/USD is unable to break the 1.5780 line, which switched from support to resistance.

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Where do we go from here?

Posted: 14 Sep 2011 01:11 AM PDT

The term 'end-game' is over-used, but in the context of the eurozone sovereign crisis, and in particular Greece, it does appear that we are approaching it.  Many charts are maxing out or in free-fall, be it Greek CDS, European bank shares, peripheral spreads over Germany or German yields themselves, the 10yr now down to 1.75%.  Germany's Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy are due to speak to the Greek PM today. 

Right now, it's far from clear that conditions will be met for the next bailout instalment, whilst progress on the debt swaps and rollovers that were an integral part of the July package have fallen short of expectations.  There inevitably becomes a point where it's easier to cut Greece loose from the EU/IMF lifeline rather than cut them more slack.  Behind the scenes, there was probably a hope that this could be done in a more orderly fashion, further in the future, when banks were better capitalised, but crises have a habit of escalating faster than politicians can cope with.

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Forex Daily Outlook – September 14 2011

Posted: 13 Sep 2011 02:00 PM PDT

Retail Sales in the US and Claimant Count Change in the UK are the main events today.  Here is an outlook on the market-movers awaiting us

In the US, Producer Price Index (PPI), leading monthly report to value the producer's prices for finished goods and services, reduce from 0.2% on August to -0.1% this month is anticipated. Meanwhile on the Core PPI (excluding food and energy) reduce of 0.1% to 0.3% is expected.

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EUR/USD: Trading the European Industrial Production

Posted: 12 Sep 2011 07:30 PM PDT

The European Industrial Production index measures production in the important sectors of manufacturing, energy supply and mining. An increase from the previous reading is an indication of growth in the European economy, which would reflect positively on the Euro.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

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