Forex technikal and fundamental analysis: Forex Crunch EUR/USD May 3

May 3, 2013

Forex Crunch EUR/USD May 3 – Euro Drops as ECB Cuts Rates to 0.50%

EUR/USD May 3 – Euro Drops as ECB Cuts Rates to 0.50%
Waiting for payrolls
Stephen Poloz named new Bank of Canada governor
Are negative interest rates really possible? Yes is the answer
GBPUSD Trying To Form A Bearish Reversal At 1.5600 (Elliott Wave
Forex Analysis: AUD/USD Drops to Retest Short-Term Lows
Draghi Open to “Nuclear Option” – a Negative Deposit Rate – EUR/USD Crashes
ECB Press Conference Live Blog – Draghi Explains Historic Cut
EURUSD higher on ECB rate decision

EUR/USD May 3 – Euro Drops as ECB Cuts Rates to 0.50%

Posted: 03 May 2013 01:34 AM PDT

The ECB lowered its benchmark interest rate on Thursday by 0.25%, bringing the rate to a record low of 0.50%. EUR/USD responded negatively, dropping over a cent on Thursday. The pair has moved upwards on Friday, and pushed above the 1.31 line early in the European session. In economic news, US releases looked sharp, as Trade Balance and Unemployment Claims beat expectations. There are three key events out of the US on Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

Read the rest of the article EUR/USD May 3 – Euro Drops as ECB Cuts Rates to 0.50%

Waiting for payrolls

Posted: 03 May 2013 12:49 AM PDT

GBP: A close eye on the services PMI data. The manufacturing series was modestly better than expected and this gave sterling a decent lift in the middle of the week to 1.5606 Fibonacci level on cable, which remains the upside level to watch.

USD: The employment report today will keep ranges on the tight side ahead of the numbers. Market looks for 140k gain in headline payrolls, although the recent run of data suggests we could see a softer number. Unemployment rate is seen steady at 7.6%.

Read the rest of the article Waiting for payrolls

Stephen Poloz named new Bank of Canada governor

Posted: 02 May 2013 02:52 PM PDT

The Bank of Canada has appointed Stephen Poloz as their new Bank of Canada governor.

Mr. Poloz, who up until now held the position of chief executive of Export Develoment Canada, the export credit agency, will be replacing Mark Carney, after the latter moved on to take new responsibilities as the new Bank of England governor.

Read the rest of the article Stephen Poloz named new Bank of Canada governor

Are negative interest rates really possible? Yes is the answer

Posted: 02 May 2013 12:30 PM PDT

The dust is still settling after ECB President Mario Draghi shook up the markets this morning at this press conference following the ECB monthly meeting.

At that meeting, the ECB decided to lower interest rates by 25 bps to 0.50%. Following that announcement at 7:45 AM EST, the EUR actually began to appreciate from the level of 1.3150 to a little above 1.3215. While most would argue that lowering the rates should have seen the EUR go lower, the move was so expected and "priced in", that the currency went higher.

Read the rest of the article Are negative interest rates really possible? Yes is the answer

GBPUSD Trying To Form A Bearish Reversal At 1.5600 (Elliott Wave

Posted: 02 May 2013 09:21 AM PDT

GBPUSD has been trading nicely higher since last week when we have turned bullish after the break through the upper side of a corrective channel that put wave C) in action.

This wave C) could be a final leg of a double zig-zag from March low. If that is the case then the top could be near, around the current 1.5550/1.5600 area, especially if we also consider a divergence on Money Flow Index which shows lower volume in this latest leg higher.

Read the rest of the article GBPUSD Trying To Form A Bearish Reversal At 1.5600 (Elliott Wave

Forex Analysis: AUD/USD Drops to Retest Short-Term Lows

Posted: 02 May 2013 07:14 AM PDT

May 2, 2013 – AUD/USD (daily chart) has dropped to a 1.0220 low in early Thursday trading, retesting the same low that was established just a little over a week ago. This occurs within the context of a short-term bearish trend extending back to the mid-April high just short of major 1.0600 resistance. For the past 10 months, price action has been confined within a clear trading range between 1.0600-area resistance and 1.0150-area support. With price now making its way back towards the lower border of this trading range, the clear downside objective resides around 1.0150 support. If this key level holds, a turn back up within the trading range may then be expected, with a major upside objective of 1.0350, after the potential turn. A breakdown below 1.0150 support would confirm a breakdown of the trading range, with a key downside support objective around parity (1.0000).

Read the rest of the article Forex Analysis: AUD/USD Drops to Retest Short-Term Lows

Draghi Open to “Nuclear Option” – a Negative Deposit Rate – EUR/USD Crashes

Posted: 02 May 2013 06:24 AM PDT

Towards the end of Mario Draghi’s press conference he left the door open to setting a negative deposit rate, a move that would scare money out of the euro zone.

The euro certainly got scared and lost around 100 pips instantly, falling to 1.3080. The move continues.

Read the rest of the article Draghi Open to “Nuclear Option” – a Negative Deposit Rate – EUR/USD Crashes

ECB Press Conference Live Blog – Draghi Explains Historic Cut

Posted: 02 May 2013 05:21 AM PDT

After cutting the lending rate to a new historic low of 0.50%, Mario Draghi faced the press in the post-decision press conference. While he didn’t present any SME program, Draghi leaves the door open for further rate cuts. Towards the end of the presser, Draghi made a very thick hint about a negative deposit rate, and sent the euro crashing.

Live blog of the event.

Read the rest of the article ECB Press Conference Live Blog – Draghi Explains Historic Cut