May 2, 2013

Forex Crunch EUR/USD May 2 – Markets Cautious Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

Forex Crunch EUR/USD May 2 – Markets Cautious Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

EUR/USD May 2 – Markets Cautious Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

Posted: 02 May 2013 03:35 AM PDT

EUR/USD is very quiet in Thursday trading, as the markets eagerly await the ECB rate announcement. The pair was trading in the 1.3170 range in the European session. With the markets expecting a cut to a record low level of 0.50%, we could see some volatility from the euro following the rate decision. In the US, the Federal Reserve statement was a non-event, as the Fed had little to say and took no new action. In economic news, Spanish Manufacturing PMI came in as expected, while Italian Manufacturing PMI beat the forecast. Today’s highlight out of the US are Trade Balance and the weekly Unemployment Claims.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves euro/dollar.

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EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Employment Change

Posted: 02 May 2013 01:11 AM PDT

US Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.

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ECB: A 25bp rate cut will do little to lower lending rates

Posted: 02 May 2013 12:36 AM PDT

Economists are awaiting the ECB to cut the lending rate, something that markets aren’t totally convinced with. A 25 basis point rate cut will do little to lending rates from a financial stability point of view, says John Kicklighter of DailyFX.

In the interview below, Kicklighter also discusses Japan’s policies, the downgrades of the UK and other topics moving currencies.

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Forex Daily Outlook May 2 2013

Posted: 01 May 2013 02:00 PM PDT

Unemployment Claims in the US and Construction PMI in the UK are the major market-movers. Let see what awaits us today.

In the US, Unemployment Claims, weekly indicator to value the individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time, 346K is due now from 339K on the last time.

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ECB disappointment could see EUR/USD move higher

Posted: 01 May 2013 11:20 AM PDT

Eurozone unemployment levels are hitting new records whilst inflation is softening and with much of the continent mired in an economic depression hopes are running high that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates. Even if it did it would only be a symbolic gesture, but one that forex markets would pay close attention to.

A 25 basis point rate cut on its key refinancing rate to 0.5% from the ECB would have a minimal impact on the real economy, though it would make headlines given it would the first reduction since July 2011. More importantly for the forex markets it might signal that a more aggressive monetary stance is on the cards.

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Fed Makes No Change in Policy – Criticizes Politicians – Dollar Slightly Stronger

Posted: 01 May 2013 11:03 AM PDT

The Federal Reserve made no material changes to its policy. After a few positive months of data followed by negative ones, another “no change” decision was expected. The news comes from the first paragraph in which the Fed points a finger at the government.

EUR/USD traded at 1.3195 before the publication, below the 1.32 level it already reached earlier in the day. Some of the US data came in within expectations and some below expectations today. The pair is trading choppily. USD/JPY has moved higher.

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No change from the Fed is also a market moving outcome

Posted: 01 May 2013 10:37 AM PDT

What will the Fed do? After seeing good data followed by disappointment, the common answer is “no change”.

John Kicklighter of DailyFX discusses the options facing the Fed.

Read the rest of the article No change from the Fed is also a market moving outcome

Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Reaches Higher on Bullish Correction

Posted: 01 May 2013 06:59 AM PDT

2013-05-01-EURUSD

May 1, 2013 – EUR/USD (daily chart) continues to reach higher on a bullish correction, as it has for the past three trading days, from the 1.3000 support area. From a broader perspective, this bullishness, which reached a high of 1.3242 in early Wednesday trading, is part of a larger bullish correction that began about a month ago from the 1.2750 support area. Having just reached up to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the precipitous drop from the 1.3700-area high in early February to the 1.2750-area low in late March, price currently appears poised to further its upside correction. With continued bullish momentum, upside resistance objectives on an extension of the current correction reside first around 1.3300 and then 1.3500. To the downside, the key 1.3000 level continues to provide strong support for the pair.

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